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arguments_for_ai_risk:is_ai_an_existential_threat_to_humanity:start [2023/02/14 01:19] katjagrace [Scenario: bad human actors are empowered by AI cognitive labor] |
arguments_for_ai_risk:is_ai_an_existential_threat_to_humanity:start [2023/09/26 17:01] (current) jeffreyheninger |
====== Is AI an existential threat to humanity? ====== | ====== Is AI an existential risk to humanity? ====== |
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//This page is under active work and may be updated soon.// | //This page is under active work and may be updated soon.// |
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The balance of evidence appears to suggest that AI poses a substantial existential risk, though none of the arguments that we know of appear be strongly compelling evidence. | The balance of evidence appears to suggest that AI poses a substantial existential risk, though none of the arguments that we know of appear be conclusive evidence. |
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===== Background ===== | ===== Background ===== |
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Many [[arguments_for_ai_risk:list_of_sources_arguing_for_existential_risk_from_ai|thinkers]] believe advanced [[clarifying_concepts:artificial_intelligence|artificial intelligence]] (AI) poses a large threat to humanity's long term survival or flourishing. Here we review evidence. | Many [[arguments_for_ai_risk:list_of_sources_arguing_for_existential_risk_from_ai|thinkers]] believe advanced [[clarifying_concepts:artificial_intelligence|artificial intelligence]] (AI) poses a large threat to humanity's long term survival or flourishing. Here we review evidence. |
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| For views of specific people working on AI, see [[arguments_for_ai_risk:views_of_ai_developers_on_risk_from_ai|this page]]. |
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Note that arguments included here are not intended to be straightforwardly independent lines of evidence. They may instead represent different ways of conceptualizing and reasoning about the same underlying situation. | Note that arguments included here are not intended to be straightforwardly independent lines of evidence. They may instead represent different ways of conceptualizing and reasoning about the same underlying situation. |
Various [[https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=arguments_for_ai_risk:is_ai_an_existential_threat_to_humanity:will_malign_ai_agents_control_the_future:start#arguments|arguments]] are made for this scenario. The most prominent appears to be: | Various [[https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=arguments_for_ai_risk:is_ai_an_existential_threat_to_humanity:will_malign_ai_agents_control_the_future:start#arguments|arguments]] are made for this scenario. The most prominent appears to be: |
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* **AI developments will produce powerful agents with undesirable goals** \\ \\ //(Main article: [[arguments_for_ai_risk:is_ai_an_existential_threat_to_humanity:will_malign_ai_agents_control_the_future:argument_for_ai_x-risk_from_competent_malign_agents|Argument for AI X-risk from competent malign agents]])// \\ \\ **Summary**: At least some advanced AI systems will probably be 'goal-oriented', a powerful force in the world, and their goals will probably be bad by human lights. Powerful goal-oriented agents tend to achieve their goals. \\ \\ **Apparent status**: This seems to us the most suggestive argument, though not watertight. This seems prima facie plausible, but destroying everything is a very implausible event, so the burden of proof is high. | * **AI developments will produce powerful agents with undesirable goals** \\ \\ //(Main article: [[arguments_for_ai_risk:is_ai_an_existential_threat_to_humanity:will_malign_ai_agents_control_the_future:argument_for_ai_x-risk_from_competent_malign_agents:start|Argument for AI X-risk from competent malign agents]])// \\ \\ **Summary**: At least some advanced AI systems will probably be 'goal-oriented', a powerful force in the world, and their goals will probably be bad by human lights. Powerful goal-oriented agents tend to achieve their goals. \\ \\ **Apparent status**: This seems to us the most suggestive argument, though not watertight. This seems prima facie plausible, but destroying everything is a very implausible event, so the burden of proof is high. |
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In light of [[https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=arguments_for_ai_risk:is_ai_an_existential_threat_to_humanity:will_malign_ai_agents_control_the_future:start#arguments|arguments]], this scenario seems plausible but not guaranteed. | In light of [[https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=arguments_for_ai_risk:is_ai_an_existential_threat_to_humanity:will_malign_ai_agents_control_the_future:start#arguments|arguments]], this scenario seems plausible but not guaranteed. |
* [[arguments_for_ai_risk:list_of_sources_arguing_for_existential_risk_from_ai|List of sources arguing for existential risk from AI]] | * [[arguments_for_ai_risk:list_of_sources_arguing_for_existential_risk_from_ai|List of sources arguing for existential risk from AI]] |
* [[will_superhuman_ai_be_created:start|Will superhuman AI be created?]] | * [[will_superhuman_ai_be_created:start|Will superhuman AI be created?]] |
| * [[arguments_for_ai_risk:list_of_possible_risks_from_ai|List of possible risks from AI]] |
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====== Notes ====== | ====== Notes ====== |
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