AI Vignettes Project
Published 12 October, 2021; last updated 06 August, 2022
The AI Vignettes Project is an ongoing effort to write concrete plausible future histories of AI development and its social impacts.
We hope to:
Check that abstract views about the future of AI have plausible concrete instantiations. (Especially, hypothesized extinction scenarios, and proposed safe scenarios.)
Develop better intuitions about possible scenarios by thinking through them concretely.
Notice recurring themes in concrete stories, that may be worth thinking about more broadly.
Fill out the space of plausible feasible scenarios with concrete illustrations, to decrease bias in thinking about the future.
Keep a collection of AI vignettes for others to use, in the above or other ways.
Our current intended method is:
Write draft vignettes, with no particular systematic method for choosing an unbiased selection of scenarios
Request comments on their realism
Modify according to comments
Repeat 2-3 until realism critiques subside
Work so far
AI Impacts has run two small workshops where participants wrote AI vignettes.