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====== Incentivized technologies not pursued ======

This is a collection of cases where someone seemingly had a large incentive to pursue a technology, and did not. 

===== Lists =====

==== 'Resisted technological temptations' ====

These are cases where incentives to pursue a technology were overcome by concerns about downsides not imminently accruing to the decision-maker (e.g. risks to distant people, ethical concerns). These cases are being collected via the [[responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:resisted_technological_temptations_project|Resisted Technological Temptations Project]].

=== Investigated cases ===

^ Technology ^ Key Actors ^ Value Resisted ^ Time Period ^ Explanation ^
| [[responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:geoengineering|Geoengineering]] | Global Organizations, Large Countries | \$10<sup>12</sup>-10<sup>13</sup>/yr by mid-century | 1974((Geoengineering proposed.)) / 2006((Scientific taboo broken.)) to Present | Scientists' and environmental groups' opposition inhibit experiments needed before implementation |
| [[responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:nuclear_power|Nuclear power]] | Some Countries | \$10<sup>9</sup>-10<sup>10</sup>/yr and 10<sup>3</sup>-10<sup>4</sup> lives/yr | 1964((Bodega Bay Power Plant canceled in US.)) / 1987((Italian nuclear referendum.)) / 2011((Germany decides to shut down nuclear power plants.)) to Present | Political decisions important; local opposition grows to national movement; warning shots |
| [[responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:vaccine_challenge_trials|Vaccine challenge trials]] | Pharmaceutical Companies, IRBs | \$10<sup>12</sup>-10<sup>13</sup> and 10<sup>5</sup>-10<sup>6</sup> lives lost for COVID-19 | 1974((National Research Act created IRBs)) to Present | Asymmetric justice for IRBs slows medical research |

=== Plausible cases ===
This is a non-exhaustive list of plausible cases that we have not investigated. 
  * Chlorofluorocarbons, many actors, 1985-present
  * Nanotechnology, scientists and governments, five decades ago to present
  * Airships / Zeppelins 
  * Genetic engineering of humans
  * Some scientific studies prevented by the burden of IRB / GDPR compliance
  * Recreational drug development
  * Dietary restrictions, in most (all?) human cultures
  * GMOs, in some countries
  * Use of nuclear explosions in construction
  * Fracking, in some countries
  * Various weapons (nuclear, chemical, biological, land mines, etc), in some countries and at some times


==== Other notable failures of selfish expected value maximization in pursuing technologies ====

=== Plausible cases ===
(We have not investigated these cases)

  * AI winters
  * Delay in nuclear weapons research early in WWII
  * Excalibur
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