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featured_articles:cases_of_discontinuous_technological_progress [2022/09/21 07:37] (current)
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| | ====== Cases of Discontinuous Technological Progress ====== |
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| | // Published 31 December, 2014; last updated 10 December, 2020 // |
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| | <p>We know of ten events which produced a robust discontinuity in progress equivalent to more than one hundred years at previous rates in some interesting metric. We know of 53 other events which produced smaller or less robust discontinuities.</p> |
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| | ===== Background ===== |
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| | <p>These cases were researched as part of our <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:discontinuous_progress_investigation">discontinuous progress investigation</a>.</p> |
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| | ===== List of cases ===== |
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| | ==== Events causing large, robust discontinuities ==== |
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| | <ul> |
| | <li><div class="li">The Pyramid of Djoser, 2650BC (discontinuity in <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:historic_trends_in_structure_heights">structure height trends</a>) |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">The SS <em>Great Eastern</em>, 1858 (discontinuity in <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_ship_size">ship size trends</a>) |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">The first telegraph, 1858 (discontinuity in <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_transatlantic_message_speed">speed of sending a 140 character message across the Atlantic Ocean</a>) |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">The second telegraph, 1866 (discontinuity in <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_transatlantic_message_speed">speed of sending a 140 character message across the Atlantic Ocean</a>) |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">The Paris Gun, 1918 (discontinuity in <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_altitude">altitude reached by man-made means</a>) |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">The first non-stop transatlantic flight, in a modified WWI bomber, 1919 (discontinuity in both <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_transatlantic_passenger_travel">speed of passenger travel across the Atlantic Ocean</a> and <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_long-range_military_payload_delivery">speed of military payload travel across the Atlantic Ocean</a>) |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">The George Washington Bridge, 1931 (discontinuity in <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_bridge_span_length">longest bridge span</a>) |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">The first nuclear weapons, 1945 (discontinuity in <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:effect_of_nuclear_weapons_on_historic_trends_in_explosives">relative effectiveness of explosives</a>) |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">The first ICBM, 1958 (discontinuity in <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_long-range_military_payload_delivery">average speed of military payload crossing the Atlantic Ocean</a>) |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">YBa<sub>2</sub>Cu<sub>3</sub>O<sub>7</sub> as a superconductor, 1987 (discontinuity in <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_the_maximum_superconducting_temperature">warmest temperature of superconduction</a>) |
| | </div></li> |
| | </ul> |
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| | ==== Events causing moderate, robust discontinuities ==== |
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| | <ul> |
| | <li><div class="li">HMS Warrior, 1860 (discontinuity in both <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_ship_size">Royal Navy ship tonnage and Royal Navy ship displacement</a>) |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Eiffel Tower, 1889 (discontinuity in <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:historic_trends_in_structure_heights">tallest existing freestanding structure height</a>, and in other height trends non-robustly) |
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| | <li><div class="li">Fairey Delta 2, 1956 (discontinuity in <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_flight_airspeed_records">airspeed</a>) |
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| | <li><div class="li">Pellets shot into space, 1957, measured after one day of travel (discontinuity in <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_altitude">altitude achieved by man-made means</a>)<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-1-202"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-1-202" title="This was the first of various altitude records where the object continues to gain distance from Earth’s surface continuously over a long period. One could choose to treat these in different ways, and get different size of discontinuity numbers. Strictly, all altitude increases are continuous, so we are anyway implicitly looking at something like discontinuities in heights reached within some period. We somewhat arbitrarily chose to measure altitudes roughly every year, including one day in for the pellets, the only one where the very start mattered. "><sup>1</sup></a></span> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Burj Khalifa, 2009 (discontinuity in <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:historic_trends_in_structure_heights">height of tallest building ever</a>) |
| | </div></li> |
| | </ul> |
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| | ==== Non-robust discontinuities ==== |
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| | <p><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1994197408&range=B3:B90">This spreadsheet</a> details all discontinuities found, as of April 2020.</p> |
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| | <ol class="easy-footnotes-wrapper"> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-1-202"></span>This was the first of various altitude records where the object continues to gain distance from Earth’s surface continuously over a long period. One could choose to treat these in different ways, and get different size of discontinuity numbers. Strictly, all altitude increases are continuous, so we are anyway implicitly looking at something like discontinuities in heights reached within some period. We somewhat arbitrarily chose to measure altitudes roughly every year, including one day in for the pellets, the only one where the very start mattered. <a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-1-202"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | </ol> |
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