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featured_articles:likelihood_of_discontinuous_progress_around_the_development_of_agi [2022/09/21 07:37]
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featured_articles:likelihood_of_discontinuous_progress_around_the_development_of_agi [2023/09/20 17:55] (current)
katjagrace [Likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI] |
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| <p>We aren’t convinced by any of the arguments we’ve seen to expect large discontinuity in AI progress above the extremely low base rate for all technologies. However this topic is controversial, and many thinkers on the topic disagree with us, so we consider this an open question.</p> | <p>We do not know of seemingly compelling arguments to expect large discontinuity in AI progress above the extremely low base rate for all technologies. However this topic is controversial, and many thinkers on the topic disagree with us, so we consider this an open question.</p> |
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| ===== Footnotes ===== | ===== Notes ===== |
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| <li><div class="li">convoluted metrics designed to capture discontinuities, and not likely to be considered a natural measure of success</div></li> | <li><div class="li">convoluted metrics designed to capture discontinuities, and not likely to be considered a natural measure of success</div></li> |
| <li><div class="li">metrics that with additional details that aren’t necessarily desirable, e.g. we expect ‘Xootr scooter miles/$’ to be more discontinuous than ‘scooter miles/$’, and for that to be more discontinuous than ‘transport miles/$’. Similarly, the day an update to OSX is launched, the number of users of that particular operating system presumably grows rapidly, but the number of users of operating systems does not, and nor does any natural operating system performance metric that we know of.</div></li> | <li><div class="li">metrics that with additional details that aren’t necessarily desirable, e.g. we expect ‘Xootr scooter miles/dollar’ to be more discontinuous than ‘scooter miles/dollar’, and for that to be more discontinuous than ‘transport miles/dollar’. Similarly, the day an update to OSX is launched, the number of users of that particular operating system presumably grows rapidly, but the number of users of operating systems does not, and nor does any natural operating system performance metric that we know of.</div></li> |
| <li><div class="li">metrics that nobody is trying to perform well on e.g. number of eight-foot tall unicorns made of marshmallow might undergo a sudden increase if some particular rich person becomes interested. This is uninteresting to us in part because it doesn’t represent a change in the underlying technology, and in part because by its nature if anybody cared how many such unicorns there were the metric wouldn’t have been discontinuous.</div></li> | <li><div class="li">metrics that nobody is trying to perform well on e.g. number of eight-foot tall unicorns made of marshmallow might undergo a sudden increase if some particular rich person becomes interested. This is uninteresting to us in part because it doesn’t represent a change in the underlying technology, and in part because by its nature if anybody cared how many such unicorns there were the metric wouldn’t have been discontinuous.</div></li> |
| </ul><a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-1-1086"></a> | </ul><a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-1-1086"></a> |
