AI Impacts Wiki evaluationhttps://wiki.aiimpacts.org/2026-05-17T15:18:58+00:00FeedCreator 1.8 (info@mypapit.net)Costs of extinction risk mitigation2022-11-02T18:51:14+00:002022-11-02T18:51:14+00:00https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/evaluation/costs_of_extinction_risk_mitigation?rev=1667415074&do=diffAnonymousanonymous@undisclosed.example.com<pre>
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<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“Disaster” is not extinction. However, insofar as the 6°C-or-higher scenario is representative of extreme climate scenarios in general, it may be helpful for CBA purposes to estimate the cost of achieving a reduction of its probability from 11% to 1.2%. In this vein, Figure 1, taken from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fifth Assessment in 2014, summarises estimates of economic impacts (costs) of five CO</span><span style="font-weight: 400;"><sub>2</sub></span><span style="font-weight: 400;">eq concentration scenarios. The medians of the various cost estimates for the 650–720 ppm and 480–530 ppm scenarios could be taken as indicative of the cost of reducing CO</span><span style="font-weight: 400;"><sub>2</sub></span><span style="font-weight: 400;">eq from 700 ppm to 500 ppm. This suggests that this cost may be somewhere in the vicinity of 1–2% of the Net Present Value (NPV) of global GDP and consumption during the period 2015–2100. Thus, an approximate NPV of US $31.9tr–$63.8tr of GDP, or US $24.3tr–$48.5tr of consumption, may be foregone globally to reduce the probability of global temperatures rising by at least 6°C from 11% to 1.2%.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-1-696"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-1-696" title='The estimated NPV of global GDP and consumption in the 2015–2100 period are based on &lt;a href="http://databank.worldbank.org/"&gt;World Bank data&lt;/a&gt; for 2014 ($78.1tr for GDP and $57.5tr for consumption), annual growth rates of 3.4% reducing to 1.5% by 2100 (from predictions by economic models &lt;a href="https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/AR5DB"&gt;collected&lt;/a&gt; by IPCC), and a real discount rate of 5% as used by IPCC in Figure 1.'><sup>1</sup></a></span></span><span style="font-weight: 400;">. For comparability purposes, annual costs can be estimated by assuming that these costs are evenly spread in real terms from 2015–2100. This produces estimates of annual costs of approximately US $1.5tr–$3.1tr of GDP, or approximately US $1.2tr–$2.3tr of consumption.</span></p>
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<p><b><i>Figure 1:</i></b> <i><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mitigation costs (NPV 2015–2100, 5% discount rate)<br/></span></i> <span style="font-weight: 400;">Notes: Multiple models are used to produce Figure 1, and each model is used to run one or more scenarios. Each scenario result is represented by a dot, with the number of scenarios included in the boxplots indicated at the bottom of the panels. Costs are expressed as a fraction of economic output in the baseline, or in the case of consumption losses, consumption in the baseline. The number of scenarios outside the figure range is noted at the top.</span><span style="font-weight: 400;"><br/></span> <span style="font-weight: 400;">Source:</span> <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter6.pdf"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mitigation of Climate Change: Working Group III contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Chapter 6</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">, p. 450.</span></p>
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<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“Disaster” is not extinction. However, insofar as the 6°C-or-higher scenario is representative of extreme climate scenarios in general, it may be helpful for CBA purposes to estimate the cost of achieving a reduction of its probability from 11% to 1.2%. In this vein, Figure 1, taken from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fifth Assessment in 2014, summarises estimates of economic impacts (costs) of five CO</span><span style="font-weight: 400;"><sub>2</sub></span><span style="font-weight: 400;">eq concentration scenarios. The medians of the various cost estimates for the 650–720 ppm and 480–530 ppm scenarios could be taken as indicative of the cost of reducing CO</span><span style="font-weight: 400;"><sub>2</sub></span><span style="font-weight: 400;">eq from 700 ppm to 500 ppm. This suggests that this cost may be somewhere in the vicinity of 1–2% of the Net Present Value (NPV) of global GDP and consumption during the period 2015–2100. Thus, an approximate NPV of US $31.9tr–$63.8tr of GDP, or US $24.3tr–$48.5tr of consumption, may be foregone globally to reduce the probability of global temperatures rising by at least 6°C from 11% to 1.2%.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-1-696"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-1-696" title='The estimated NPV of global GDP and consumption in the 2015–2100 period are based on &lt;a href="http://databank.worldbank.org/"&gt;World Bank data&lt;/a&gt; for 2014 ($78.1tr for GDP and $57.5tr for consumption), annual growth rates of 3.4% reducing to 1.5% by 2100 (from predictions by economic models &lt;a href="https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/AR5DB"&gt;collected&lt;/a&gt; by IPCC), and a real discount rate of 5% as used by IPCC in Figure 1.'><sup>1</sup></a></span></span><span style="font-weight: 400;">. For comparability purposes, annual costs can be estimated by assuming that these costs are evenly spread in real terms from 2015–2100. This produces estimates of annual costs of approximately US $1.5tr–$3.1tr of GDP, or approximately US $1.2tr–$2.3tr of consumption.</span></p>
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<p><b><i>Figure 1:</i></b> <i><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mitigation costs (NPV 2015–2100, 5% discount rate)<br/></span></i> <span style="font-weight: 400;">Notes: Multiple models are used to produce Figure 1, and each model is used to run one or more scenarios. Each scenario result is represented by a dot, with the number of scenarios included in the boxplots indicated at the bottom of the panels. Costs are expressed as a fraction of economic output in the baseline, or in the case of consumption losses, consumption in the baseline. The number of scenarios outside the figure range is noted at the top.</span><span style="font-weight: 400;"><br/></span> <span style="font-weight: 400;">Source:</span> <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter6.pdf"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mitigation of Climate Change: Working Group III contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Chapter 6</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">, p. 450.</span></p>
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