AI Impacts Wiki review https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ 2026-05-17T15:25:56+00:00 FeedCreator 1.8 (info@mypapit.net) AI Impacts 2020 review 2022-09-21T07:37:41+00:00 2022-09-21T07:37:41+00:00 https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/review/ai_impacts_2020_review?rev=1663745861&do=diff Anonymous anonymous@undisclosed.example.com <pre> @@ -1 +1,175 @@ + ====== AI Impacts 2020 review ====== + + // Published 21 December, 2020; last updated 08 March, 2021 // + + + + + + + ===== Major projects ===== + + + ==== Discontinuities project ==== + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;p class=&quot;has-normal-font-size&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Primary authors:&lt;/strong&gt; Katja Grace, Richard Korzekwa, Asya Bergal, Daniel Kokotajlo&lt;br/&gt; + &lt;strong&gt;Main page:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:discontinuous_progress_investigation&quot;&gt;Discontinuous progress investigation&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt; + &lt;strong&gt;Blog post:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuous-progress-in-history-an-update/&quot;&gt;Discontinuous progress in history: an update&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;p&gt;Other pages added in 2020: &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:effect_of_alexnet_on_historic_trends_in_image_recognition&quot;&gt;Effect of AlexNet on historic trends in image recognition&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_transatlantic_message_speed&quot;&gt;Historic trends in transatlantic message speed&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_long-range_military_payload_delivery&quot;&gt;Historic trends in long-range military payload delivery&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_bridge_span_length&quot;&gt;Historic trends in bridge span length&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_light_intensity&quot;&gt;Historic trends in light intensity&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_book_production&quot;&gt;Historic trends in book production&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_telecommunications_performance&quot;&gt;Historic trends in telecommunications performance&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_slow_light_technology&quot;&gt;Historic trends in slow light technology&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:penicillin_and_historic_syphilis_trends&quot;&gt;Penicillin and historic syphilis trends&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_the_maximum_superconducting_temperature&quot;&gt;Historic trends in the maximum superconducting temperature&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_chess_ai&quot;&gt;Historic trends in chess AI&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:effect_of_eli_whitneys_cotton_gin_on_historic_trends_in_cotton_ginning&quot;&gt;Effect of Eli Whitney’s cotton gin on historic trends in cotton ginning&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_flight_airspeed_records&quot;&gt;Historic trends in flight airspeed records&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + ==== Evolution engineering comparison ==== + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;p class=&quot;has-normal-font-size&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Primary authors&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;: Ronny Fernandez&lt;br/&gt; + &lt;strong&gt;Main page:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:how_energy_efficient_are_human-engineered_flight_designs_relative_to_natural_ones&quot;&gt;How energy efficient are human-engineered flight designs relative to natural ones?&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;p&gt;Other pages added in 2020: &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_monarch_butterfly_flight&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of monarch butterfly flight&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_wandering_albatross_flight&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of wandering albatross flight&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_paramotors&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of paramotors&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_the_spirit_of_butts_farm&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of The Spirit of Butt’s Farm&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_maccready_gossamer_albatross&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of MacCready Gossamer Albatross&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_boeing_747-400&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of Boeing 747-400&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_airbus_a320&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of Airbus A320&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_north_american_p-51_mustang&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of North American P-51 Mustang&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_north_american_p-51_mustang&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of Vickers Vimy plane&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_wright_model_b&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of Wright model B&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_wright_flyer&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of Wright Flyer&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + ==== Time to cross human performance range ==== + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;p class=&quot;has-normal-font-size&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Primary authors&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt; Richard Korzekwa&lt;br/&gt; + &lt;strong&gt;Pages added in 2020:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;ul style=&quot;font-size:16px&quot;&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_range_in_english_draughts&quot;&gt;Time for AI to cross the human range in English draughts&lt;/a&gt; + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_range_in_starcraft&quot;&gt;Time for AI to cross the human range in StarCraft&lt;/a&gt; + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=featured_articles:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_performance_range_in_imagenet_image_classification&quot;&gt;Time for AI to cross the human performance range in ImageNet image classification&lt;/a&gt; + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_performance_range_in_chess&quot;&gt;Time for AI to cross the human performance range in chess&lt;/a&gt; + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_performance_range_in_go&quot;&gt;Time for AI to cross the human performance range in Go&lt;/a&gt; + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;/ul&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + ==== Historic hardware trends ==== + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;p class=&quot;has-normal-font-size&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Primary authors&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;:&lt;/strong&gt; Asya Bergal&lt;br/&gt; + &lt;strong&gt;Pages added in 2020:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;ul style=&quot;font-size:16px&quot;&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:2019_recent_trends_in_gpu_price_per_flops&quot;&gt;2019 recent trends in GPU price per FLOPS&lt;/a&gt; + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:hardware_and_ai_timelines:2019_recent_trends_in_geekbench_score_per_cpu_price&quot;&gt;2019 recent trends in Geekbench score per CPU price&lt;/a&gt; + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:hardware_and_ai_timelines:trends_in_dram_price_per_gigabyte&quot;&gt;Trends in DRAM price per gigabyte&lt;/a&gt; + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;/ul&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + ==== Interviews on plausibility of AI safety by default ==== + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;p class=&quot;has-normal-font-size&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Primary authors&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;:&lt;/strong&gt; Asya Bergal, Robert Long&lt;br/&gt; + &lt;strong&gt;Main page:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=arguments_for_ai_risk:interviews_on_plausibility_of_ai_safety_by_default&quot;&gt;Interviews on plausibility of AI safety by default&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt; + &lt;strong&gt;Blog post:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/takeaways-from-safety-by-default-interviews/&quot;&gt;Takeaways from safety by default interviews&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + ==== Shallow survey of prescient actions ==== + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;p class=&quot;has-normal-font-size&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Primary authors&lt;/strong&gt;:&lt;/strong&gt; Richard Korzekwa&lt;br/&gt; + &lt;strong&gt;Main page:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=featured_articles:preliminary_survey_of_prescient_actions&quot;&gt;Preliminary survey of prescient actions&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + ===== Other work ===== + + + ==== Pages added in 2020 ==== + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;ul style=&quot;font-size:16px&quot;&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=research_problems:ai_impacts_key_questions_of_interest&quot;&gt;AI Impacts key questions of interest&lt;/a&gt; — Primary author: Katja Grace + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:was_the_industrial_revolution_a_drastic_departure_from_historic_trends&quot;&gt;Was the industrial revolution a drastic departure from historic trends?&lt;/a&gt; — Primary author: Katja Grace + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:surveys_on_fractional_progress_towards_hlai&quot;&gt;Surveys on fractional progress towards HLAI&lt;/a&gt; — Primary author: Asya Bergal + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=featured_articles:precedents_for_economic_n-year_doubling_before_4n-year_doubling&quot;&gt;Precedents for economic n-year doubling before 4n-year doubling&lt;/a&gt; — Primary author: Daniel Kokotajlo + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:resolutions_of_mathematical_conjectures_over_time&quot;&gt;Resolutions of mathematical conjectures over time&lt;/a&gt; — Primary author: Asya Bergal + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;/ul&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + ==== Blog posts added in 2020 ==== + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;ul style=&quot;font-size:16px&quot;&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/misalignment-and-misuse-whose-values-are-manifest/&quot;&gt;Misalignment and misuse: whose values are manifest?&lt;/a&gt; — Katja Grace + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/automated-intelligence-is-not-ai/&quot;&gt;Automated intelligence is not AI&lt;/a&gt; — Katja Grace + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/relevant-pre-agi-possibilities/&quot;&gt;Relevant pre-AGI possibilities&lt;/a&gt; — Daniel Kokotajlo, Asya Bergal + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/description-vs-simulated-prediction/&quot;&gt;Description vs simulated prediction&lt;/a&gt; — Richard Korzekwa + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/atari-early/&quot;&gt;Atari early&lt;/a&gt; — Katja Grace + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/three-kinds-of-competitiveness/&quot;&gt;Three kinds of competitiveness&lt;/a&gt; — Daniel Kokotajlo + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/agi-in-a-vulnerable-world/&quot;&gt;AGI in a vulnerable world&lt;/a&gt; — Asya Bergal + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/cortes-pizarro-and-afonso-as-precedents-for-ai-takeover/&quot;&gt;Cortes, Pizarro, and Afonso as precedents for takeover&lt;/a&gt; — Daniel Kokotajlo + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;/ul&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + </pre> <pre> @@ -1 +1,175 @@ + ====== AI Impacts 2020 review ====== + + // Published 21 December, 2020; last updated 08 March, 2021 // + + + + + + + ===== Major projects ===== + + + ==== Discontinuities project ==== + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;p class=&quot;has-normal-font-size&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Primary authors:&lt;/strong&gt; Katja Grace, Richard Korzekwa, Asya Bergal, Daniel Kokotajlo&lt;br/&gt; + &lt;strong&gt;Main page:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:discontinuous_progress_investigation&quot;&gt;Discontinuous progress investigation&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt; + &lt;strong&gt;Blog post:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuous-progress-in-history-an-update/&quot;&gt;Discontinuous progress in history: an update&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;p&gt;Other pages added in 2020: &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:effect_of_alexnet_on_historic_trends_in_image_recognition&quot;&gt;Effect of AlexNet on historic trends in image recognition&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_transatlantic_message_speed&quot;&gt;Historic trends in transatlantic message speed&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_long-range_military_payload_delivery&quot;&gt;Historic trends in long-range military payload delivery&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_bridge_span_length&quot;&gt;Historic trends in bridge span length&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_light_intensity&quot;&gt;Historic trends in light intensity&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_book_production&quot;&gt;Historic trends in book production&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_telecommunications_performance&quot;&gt;Historic trends in telecommunications performance&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_slow_light_technology&quot;&gt;Historic trends in slow light technology&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:penicillin_and_historic_syphilis_trends&quot;&gt;Penicillin and historic syphilis trends&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_the_maximum_superconducting_temperature&quot;&gt;Historic trends in the maximum superconducting temperature&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_chess_ai&quot;&gt;Historic trends in chess AI&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:effect_of_eli_whitneys_cotton_gin_on_historic_trends_in_cotton_ginning&quot;&gt;Effect of Eli Whitney’s cotton gin on historic trends in cotton ginning&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_flight_airspeed_records&quot;&gt;Historic trends in flight airspeed records&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + ==== Evolution engineering comparison ==== + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;p class=&quot;has-normal-font-size&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Primary authors&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;: Ronny Fernandez&lt;br/&gt; + &lt;strong&gt;Main page:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:how_energy_efficient_are_human-engineered_flight_designs_relative_to_natural_ones&quot;&gt;How energy efficient are human-engineered flight designs relative to natural ones?&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;p&gt;Other pages added in 2020: &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_monarch_butterfly_flight&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of monarch butterfly flight&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_wandering_albatross_flight&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of wandering albatross flight&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_paramotors&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of paramotors&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_the_spirit_of_butts_farm&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of The Spirit of Butt’s Farm&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_maccready_gossamer_albatross&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of MacCready Gossamer Albatross&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_boeing_747-400&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of Boeing 747-400&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_airbus_a320&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of Airbus A320&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_north_american_p-51_mustang&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of North American P-51 Mustang&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_north_american_p-51_mustang&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of Vickers Vimy plane&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_wright_model_b&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of Wright model B&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_wright_flyer&quot;&gt;Energy efficiency of Wright Flyer&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + ==== Time to cross human performance range ==== + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;p class=&quot;has-normal-font-size&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Primary authors&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt; Richard Korzekwa&lt;br/&gt; + &lt;strong&gt;Pages added in 2020:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;ul style=&quot;font-size:16px&quot;&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_range_in_english_draughts&quot;&gt;Time for AI to cross the human range in English draughts&lt;/a&gt; + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_range_in_starcraft&quot;&gt;Time for AI to cross the human range in StarCraft&lt;/a&gt; + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=featured_articles:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_performance_range_in_imagenet_image_classification&quot;&gt;Time for AI to cross the human performance range in ImageNet image classification&lt;/a&gt; + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_performance_range_in_chess&quot;&gt;Time for AI to cross the human performance range in chess&lt;/a&gt; + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_performance_range_in_go&quot;&gt;Time for AI to cross the human performance range in Go&lt;/a&gt; + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;/ul&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + ==== Historic hardware trends ==== + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;p class=&quot;has-normal-font-size&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Primary authors&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;:&lt;/strong&gt; Asya Bergal&lt;br/&gt; + &lt;strong&gt;Pages added in 2020:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;ul style=&quot;font-size:16px&quot;&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:2019_recent_trends_in_gpu_price_per_flops&quot;&gt;2019 recent trends in GPU price per FLOPS&lt;/a&gt; + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:hardware_and_ai_timelines:2019_recent_trends_in_geekbench_score_per_cpu_price&quot;&gt;2019 recent trends in Geekbench score per CPU price&lt;/a&gt; + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:hardware_and_ai_timelines:trends_in_dram_price_per_gigabyte&quot;&gt;Trends in DRAM price per gigabyte&lt;/a&gt; + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;/ul&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + ==== Interviews on plausibility of AI safety by default ==== + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;p class=&quot;has-normal-font-size&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Primary authors&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;:&lt;/strong&gt; Asya Bergal, Robert Long&lt;br/&gt; + &lt;strong&gt;Main page:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=arguments_for_ai_risk:interviews_on_plausibility_of_ai_safety_by_default&quot;&gt;Interviews on plausibility of AI safety by default&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt; + &lt;strong&gt;Blog post:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/takeaways-from-safety-by-default-interviews/&quot;&gt;Takeaways from safety by default interviews&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + ==== Shallow survey of prescient actions ==== + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;p class=&quot;has-normal-font-size&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Primary authors&lt;/strong&gt;:&lt;/strong&gt; Richard Korzekwa&lt;br/&gt; + &lt;strong&gt;Main page:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=featured_articles:preliminary_survey_of_prescient_actions&quot;&gt;Preliminary survey of prescient actions&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + ===== Other work ===== + + + ==== Pages added in 2020 ==== + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;ul style=&quot;font-size:16px&quot;&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=research_problems:ai_impacts_key_questions_of_interest&quot;&gt;AI Impacts key questions of interest&lt;/a&gt; — Primary author: Katja Grace + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:was_the_industrial_revolution_a_drastic_departure_from_historic_trends&quot;&gt;Was the industrial revolution a drastic departure from historic trends?&lt;/a&gt; — Primary author: Katja Grace + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:surveys_on_fractional_progress_towards_hlai&quot;&gt;Surveys on fractional progress towards HLAI&lt;/a&gt; — Primary author: Asya Bergal + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=featured_articles:precedents_for_economic_n-year_doubling_before_4n-year_doubling&quot;&gt;Precedents for economic n-year doubling before 4n-year doubling&lt;/a&gt; — Primary author: Daniel Kokotajlo + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:resolutions_of_mathematical_conjectures_over_time&quot;&gt;Resolutions of mathematical conjectures over time&lt;/a&gt; — Primary author: Asya Bergal + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;/ul&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + + ==== Blog posts added in 2020 ==== + + + &lt;HTML&gt; + &lt;ul style=&quot;font-size:16px&quot;&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/misalignment-and-misuse-whose-values-are-manifest/&quot;&gt;Misalignment and misuse: whose values are manifest?&lt;/a&gt; — Katja Grace + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/automated-intelligence-is-not-ai/&quot;&gt;Automated intelligence is not AI&lt;/a&gt; — Katja Grace + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/relevant-pre-agi-possibilities/&quot;&gt;Relevant pre-AGI possibilities&lt;/a&gt; — Daniel Kokotajlo, Asya Bergal + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/description-vs-simulated-prediction/&quot;&gt;Description vs simulated prediction&lt;/a&gt; — Richard Korzekwa + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/atari-early/&quot;&gt;Atari early&lt;/a&gt; — Katja Grace + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/three-kinds-of-competitiveness/&quot;&gt;Three kinds of competitiveness&lt;/a&gt; — Daniel Kokotajlo + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/agi-in-a-vulnerable-world/&quot;&gt;AGI in a vulnerable world&lt;/a&gt; — Asya Bergal + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;li&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;li&quot;&gt; + &lt;a href=&quot;https://aiimpacts.org/cortes-pizarro-and-afonso-as-precedents-for-ai-takeover/&quot;&gt;Cortes, Pizarro, and Afonso as precedents for takeover&lt;/a&gt; — Daniel Kokotajlo + &lt;/div&gt;&lt;/li&gt; + &lt;/ul&gt; + &lt;/HTML&gt; + + </pre>