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research_problems:ai_impacts_key_questions_of_interest [2022/09/21 07:37] (current)
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| | ====== AI Impacts key questions of interest ====== |
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| | // Published 17 December, 2020 // |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>This is a list of questions that AI Impacts focuses on answering.</p> |
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| | ===== Details ===== |
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| | <p>We are interested in understanding how the development of advanced AI will proceed and how it may affect humanity, especially insofar as these are relevant to efforts to improve the outcomes. This is a list of questions within this topic that we currently consider particularly important to answer.</p> |
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| | ==== List ==== |
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| | <ul> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>AI RISK:</strong> What type and degree of risk will be posed to humanity by advanced AI systems?</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <strong>CHARACTER:</strong> What will early advanced AI systems be like? |
| | <ul> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>ARCHITECTURE:</strong> What types of algorithms will advanced AI systems use?</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>AGENCY:</strong> Will the bulk of advanced AI systems be in the form of ‘agents’? (If so, in what sense? Will they pursue ‘goals’? Can we say anything about the nature the goals or the pursuit?)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <strong>PRICE:</strong> How much will the first <a href="/doku.php?id=clarifying_concepts:human-level_ai">human-level AI</a> systems cost? |
| | </div></li> |
| | </ul> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <strong>TIMELINES:</strong> When will <a href="/doku.php?id=clarifying_concepts:human-level_ai">human-level AI</a> be developed? (When will other important AI milestones take place?) |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <strong>TAKE-OFF SPEED:</strong> How rapid is the development of AI likely to be near human-level? |
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| | <li><div class="li"><strong>DISCONTINUITY:</strong> Will there be abrupt progress in AI development at around human-level performance?</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>INTELLIGENCE EXPLOSION:</strong> How much will AI development be accelerated by feedback from AI-based automation of the process?</div></li> |
| | </ul> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <strong>PRE-AI DEVELOPMENTS:</strong> What developments will take place before advanced AI is developed? |
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| | <li><div class="li"><strong>PATHS TO HLAI:</strong> By what methods is advanced AI likely to come about? (e.g. will human-level AI be developed via brain emulation before it is developed via machine learning? Will neuroscientific understanding play a large role in development?)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>CONTEMPORARY EVENTS:</strong> How will the world be relevantly different at the time that advanced AI is developed?</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>WARNING SIGNS:</strong> Should we expect advance notice of disruptive change from AI? (What would it look like?)</div></li> |
| | </ul> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>POST-AI SOCIETY:</strong> If advanced AI transforms the world, what will the world look like afterwards? (e.g. What will the economic impacts be? Will humans flourish? What roles will AI systems play in society?)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>ACTIONS:</strong> What can we say about the impact of contemporary choices on long-term outcomes?</div></li> |
| | </ul> |
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