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+ | ====== Examples of Warning Signs ====== | ||
+ | |||
+ | // | ||
+ | |||
+ | //Epistemic Status: Varies. Some of the examples here come from thorough case studies for our other projects. We are less confident of the examples which were not part of a dedicated case study: some of the sources cited were not read thoroughly, and we did not check to make sure that they are representative of the relevant literature.// | ||
+ | |||
+ | This page lists some examples of warning signs from the history of technologies other than AI. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== Model ===== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Sometimes, to understand the development of an emerging technology and the policy surrounding it, it is important to understand a few key events, called ' | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== Definitions ===== | ||
+ | |||
+ | There are multiple terms that are used to refer to these key events in the history of technology policy. The terms do not mean exactly the same thing, and are used inconsistently. | ||
+ | |||
+ | "A **warning shot** is a global catastrophe that indirectly reduces existential risk by increasing concern about future catastrophes." | ||
+ | |||
+ | A **fire alarm** is something which creates " | ||
+ | |||
+ | A **warning sign** is "any event that increases concern about a particular category of existential risk, regardless of whether the event itself constitutes a global catastrophe. ... Note, however, that both ' | ||
+ | |||
+ | A **trigger event** is "a ' | ||
+ | |||
+ | A **Sputnik moment** is "a trigger mechanism, an event that makes people collectively say that they need to do something, and this sets a course in another direction," | ||
+ | |||
+ | A **galvanizing event ** is an event that stimulates people' | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== Examples ===== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Below are some examples of warning signs for various industries: nuclear power, fossil fuels, chlorofluorocarbons, | ||
+ | |||
+ | The examples of warning signs are grouped by the industry they were used to promote policies for. Each example also includes the date the warning sign was made known to the public, the location where the warning sign took place, and a brief description of what occurred. The relevance of the warning sign to the problem activists were trying to address is categorized as High, Moderate, or Low. The amount of harm caused is categorized as harm occurring locally, regionally, or globally, and as catastrophic if it kills a majority of the people it impacts or renders a large area uninhabitable, | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Nuclear Power ==== | ||
+ | // | ||
+ | |||
+ | === Three Mile Island === | ||
+ | |||
+ | * **Date:** 1979. | ||
+ | * **Location: | ||
+ | * **Description: | ||
+ | * **Relevance: | ||
+ | * **Harm Caused:** Too small to measure. | ||
+ | * **Result:** Reinforced already increasing safety regulations. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission was founded in 1975, and many planned nuclear power plants had already been canceled. No new nuclear power plants would begin construction in the USA for decades.((Hultman and Koomey. //Three Mile Island: The driver of US nuclear power’s decline?// Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists **69.3**. (2013) p. 63-70. [[https:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | === Chernobyl === | ||
+ | |||
+ | * **Date:** 1986. | ||
+ | * **Location: | ||
+ | * **Description: | ||
+ | * **Relevance: | ||
+ | * **Harm Caused:** Catastrophic locally, significant regionally. | ||
+ | * **Result:** Public opinion in Europe shifts dramatically against nuclear power. Italian referendum results in the closure of all nuclear power plants in Italy.((// | ||
+ | //Eligendo Archivio.// Ministero dell’Interno. (Accessed November 16, 2023.) [[https:// | ||
+ | )) The USSR slows nuclear power plant construction and commits to increased transparency around nuclear power.((Vyacheslav S. Romanov. //Nuclear power and public opinion.// IAEA Bulletin **2**. (1990) [[https:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | === Fukushima === | ||
+ | |||
+ | * **Date:** 2011. | ||
+ | * **Location: | ||
+ | * **Description: | ||
+ | * **Relevance: | ||
+ | * **Harm Caused:** Significant locally. | ||
+ | * **Result:** Japan shuts down all of its nuclear reactors, and later reopens some.((//In a reversal, Japan embraces nuclear power after promising to phase it out.// NPR. (2022) [[https:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Fossil Fuels ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | === Exxon Valdez Oil Spill === | ||
+ | |||
+ | * **Date:** 1989. | ||
+ | * **Location: | ||
+ | * **Description: | ||
+ | * **Relevance: | ||
+ | * **Harm Caused:** Significant locally. | ||
+ | * **Result:** The Oil Pollution Act of 1990 phased in double hulls for oil tankers and banned some tankers from entering Prince William Sound. Rising public concern about climate change and the first IPCC report occur soon after, but seem to be mostly unrelated.((Nina Joung. //The 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, and how we see climate change then and now.// PBS. (2019) [[https:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | === Extreme Weather Events === | ||
+ | |||
+ | * **Date:** Various. | ||
+ | * **Location: | ||
+ | * **Description: | ||
+ | * **Relevance: | ||
+ | * **Harm Caused:** Significant to catastrophic locally. | ||
+ | * **Result:** There is some evidence that people become more concerned about climate change in response to an extreme weather event, although the evidence is mixed.((Bergquist, | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | === Discovery of the Ozone Hole === | ||
+ | |||
+ | * **Date:** 1985. | ||
+ | * **Location: | ||
+ | * **Description: | ||
+ | * **Relevance: | ||
+ | * **Harm Caused:** Significant regionally.((" | ||
+ | Umar & Tasduq. //Ozone Layer Depletion and Emerging Public Health Concerns.// Frontiers in Oncology **12**. (2022) [[https:// | ||
+ | * **Result:** Vienna Convention of 1985 and Montreal Protocol of 1987, a global treaty which created a phase-out management plan for CFCs.((// | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | === Mad Cow Disease === | ||
+ | |||
+ | * **Date:** 1995. | ||
+ | * **Location: | ||
+ | * **Description: | ||
+ | * **Relevance: | ||
+ | * **Harm Caused:** Significant regionally. | ||
+ | * **Result:** Opposition to GMOs rose by double digits from 1996-1999 in many European countries. Corporate campaigns convinced supermarkets to remove GMOs. National GMO bans led to a de facto GMO moratorium in the EU, which persists today.((Charlie Harrison. //Go Mobilize? Lessons from GM Protests for Pausing AI.// EA Forum. (2023) [[https:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | === Cloning of Dolly the Sheep === | ||
+ | |||
+ | * **Date:** 1997. | ||
+ | * **Location: | ||
+ | * **Description: | ||
+ | * **Relevance: | ||
+ | * **Harm Caused:** None. | ||
+ | * **Result:** Opposition to GMOs rose by double digits from 1996-1999 in many European countries. Corporate campaigns convinced supermarkets to remove GMOs. National GMO bans led to a de facto GMO moratorium in the EU, which persists today.((Charlie Harrison. //Go Mobilize? Lessons from GM Protests for Pausing AI.// EA Forum. (2023) [[https:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Medical Research Involving Viruses ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | === COVID-19 Lab Leak Hypothesis === | ||
+ | |||
+ | * **Date:** 2019. | ||
+ | * **Location: | ||
+ | * **Description: | ||
+ | * **Relevance: | ||
+ | * **Harm Caused:** Significant globally. | ||
+ | * **Result:** Some efforts to ban gain-of-function research, but no significant policy changes.((Nate Soares. //Warning Shots Probably Won’t Change The Picture Much.// LessWrong. (2022) [[https:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Medical Research Involving Human Subjects ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | // | ||
+ | |||
+ | === Jewish Chronic Disease Study === | ||
+ | |||
+ | * **Date:** 1964. | ||
+ | * **Location: | ||
+ | * **Description: | ||
+ | * **Relevance: | ||
+ | * **Harm Caused:** Low to significant locally. | ||
+ | * **Result:** Congressional hearings and lawsuits, although the NIH managed to avoid responsibility. Clinical Research Committees, like the one at the NIH's hospital in Bethesda, Maryland, were created at more research hospitals.((Laura Stark. // | ||
+ | in Social and Ethical Responsibilities of Computing. (2022) | ||
+ | [[https:// | ||
+ | Citing: Laura Stark. //Behind Closed Doors: IRBs and the Making of Ethical Research.// (Chicago, 2012) )) | ||
+ | |||
+ | === Willowbrook Hepatitis Study === | ||
+ | |||
+ | * **Date:** 1971. | ||
+ | * **Location: | ||
+ | * **Description: | ||
+ | * **Relevance: | ||
+ | * **Harm Caused:** Low to significant locally. | ||
+ | * **Result:** National Research Act of 1974, leading to the Belmont Report of 1978 and the creation of Institutional Review Boards for all research involving human subjects at institutions which receive funding from the federal government.((The National Commission for the Protection of Human Subjects of Biomedical and Behavioral Research. //The Belmont Report: Ethical Principles and Guidelines for the Protection of Human Subjects of Research.// (1978) [[https:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | === Tuskegee Syphilis Study === | ||
+ | |||
+ | * **Date:** 1972. | ||
+ | * **Location: | ||
+ | * **Description: | ||
+ | * **Relevance: | ||
+ | * **Harm Caused:** Significant locally. | ||
+ | * **Result:** National Research Act of 1974, leading to the Belmont Report of 1978 and the creation of Institutional Review Boards for all research involving human subjects at institutions which receive funding from the federal government.((The National Commission for the Protection of Human Subjects of Biomedical and Behavioral Research. //The Belmont Report: Ethical Principles and Guidelines for the Protection of Human Subjects of Research.// (1978) [[https:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | //Primary author: Jeffrey Heninger.// | ||
+ | |||