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review:ai_impacts_2020_review [2022/09/21 07:37] (current)
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| | ====== AI Impacts 2020 review ====== |
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| | // Published 21 December, 2020; last updated 08 March, 2021 // |
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| | ===== Major projects ===== |
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| | ==== Discontinuities project ==== |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p class="has-normal-font-size"><strong>Primary authors:</strong> Katja Grace, Richard Korzekwa, Asya Bergal, Daniel Kokotajlo<br/> |
| | <strong>Main page:</strong> <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:discontinuous_progress_investigation">Discontinuous progress investigation</a><br/> |
| | <strong>Blog post:</strong> <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuous-progress-in-history-an-update/">Discontinuous progress in history: an update</a></p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <p>Other pages added in 2020: <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:effect_of_alexnet_on_historic_trends_in_image_recognition">Effect of AlexNet on historic trends in image recognition</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_transatlantic_message_speed">Historic trends in transatlantic message speed</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_long-range_military_payload_delivery">Historic trends in long-range military payload delivery</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_bridge_span_length">Historic trends in bridge span length</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_light_intensity">Historic trends in light intensity</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_book_production">Historic trends in book production</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_telecommunications_performance">Historic trends in telecommunications performance</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_slow_light_technology">Historic trends in slow light technology</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:penicillin_and_historic_syphilis_trends">Penicillin and historic syphilis trends</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_the_maximum_superconducting_temperature">Historic trends in the maximum superconducting temperature</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_chess_ai">Historic trends in chess AI</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:effect_of_eli_whitneys_cotton_gin_on_historic_trends_in_cotton_ginning">Effect of Eli Whitney’s cotton gin on historic trends in cotton ginning</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_flight_airspeed_records">Historic trends in flight airspeed records</a></p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | ==== Evolution engineering comparison ==== |
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| | <p class="has-normal-font-size"><strong><strong><strong>Primary authors</strong></strong></strong>: Ronny Fernandez<br/> |
| | <strong>Main page:</strong> <a href="/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:how_energy_efficient_are_human-engineered_flight_designs_relative_to_natural_ones">How energy efficient are human-engineered flight designs relative to natural ones?</a></p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Other pages added in 2020: <a href="/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_monarch_butterfly_flight">Energy efficiency of monarch butterfly flight</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_wandering_albatross_flight">Energy efficiency of wandering albatross flight</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_paramotors">Energy efficiency of paramotors</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_the_spirit_of_butts_farm">Energy efficiency of The Spirit of Butt’s Farm</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_maccready_gossamer_albatross">Energy efficiency of MacCready Gossamer Albatross</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_boeing_747-400">Energy efficiency of Boeing 747-400</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_airbus_a320">Energy efficiency of Airbus A320</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_north_american_p-51_mustang">Energy efficiency of North American P-51 Mustang</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_north_american_p-51_mustang">Energy efficiency of Vickers Vimy plane</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_wright_model_b">Energy efficiency of Wright model B</a>, <a href="/doku.php?id=power_of_evolution:evolution_engineering_comparison:energy_efficiency_of_wright_flyer">Energy efficiency of Wright Flyer</a></p> |
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| | ==== Time to cross human performance range ==== |
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| | <p class="has-normal-font-size"><strong><strong><strong><strong>Primary authors</strong></strong>:</strong></strong> Richard Korzekwa<br/> |
| | <strong>Pages added in 2020:</strong></p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <ul style="font-size:16px"> |
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| | <a href="/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_range_in_english_draughts">Time for AI to cross the human range in English draughts</a> |
| | </div></li> |
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| | <a href="/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_range_in_starcraft">Time for AI to cross the human range in StarCraft</a> |
| | </div></li> |
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| | <a href="/doku.php?id=featured_articles:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_performance_range_in_imagenet_image_classification">Time for AI to cross the human performance range in ImageNet image classification</a> |
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| | <a href="/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_performance_range_in_chess">Time for AI to cross the human performance range in chess</a> |
| | </div></li> |
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| | <a href="/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_performance_range_in_go">Time for AI to cross the human performance range in Go</a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | </ul> |
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| | ==== Historic hardware trends ==== |
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| | <p class="has-normal-font-size"><strong><strong><strong>Primary authors</strong></strong>:</strong> Asya Bergal<br/> |
| | <strong>Pages added in 2020:</strong></p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <ul style="font-size:16px"> |
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| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:2019_recent_trends_in_gpu_price_per_flops">2019 recent trends in GPU price per FLOPS</a> |
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| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:hardware_and_ai_timelines:2019_recent_trends_in_geekbench_score_per_cpu_price">2019 recent trends in Geekbench score per CPU price</a> |
| | </div></li> |
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| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:hardware_and_ai_timelines:trends_in_dram_price_per_gigabyte">Trends in DRAM price per gigabyte</a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | </ul> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | ==== Interviews on plausibility of AI safety by default ==== |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p class="has-normal-font-size"><strong><strong><strong>Primary authors</strong></strong>:</strong> Asya Bergal, Robert Long<br/> |
| | <strong>Main page:</strong> <a href="/doku.php?id=arguments_for_ai_risk:interviews_on_plausibility_of_ai_safety_by_default">Interviews on plausibility of AI safety by default</a><br/> |
| | <strong>Blog post:</strong> <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/takeaways-from-safety-by-default-interviews/">Takeaways from safety by default interviews</a></p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | ==== Shallow survey of prescient actions ==== |
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| | <p class="has-normal-font-size"><strong><strong>Primary authors</strong>:</strong> Richard Korzekwa<br/> |
| | <strong>Main page:</strong> <a href="/doku.php?id=featured_articles:preliminary_survey_of_prescient_actions">Preliminary survey of prescient actions</a></p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | ===== Other work ===== |
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| | ==== Pages added in 2020 ==== |
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| | <ul style="font-size:16px"> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <a href="/doku.php?id=research_problems:ai_impacts_key_questions_of_interest">AI Impacts key questions of interest</a> — Primary author: Katja Grace |
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| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:was_the_industrial_revolution_a_drastic_departure_from_historic_trends">Was the industrial revolution a drastic departure from historic trends?</a> — Primary author: Katja Grace |
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| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:surveys_on_fractional_progress_towards_hlai">Surveys on fractional progress towards HLAI</a> — Primary author: Asya Bergal |
| | </div></li> |
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| | <a href="/doku.php?id=featured_articles:precedents_for_economic_n-year_doubling_before_4n-year_doubling">Precedents for economic n-year doubling before 4n-year doubling</a> — Primary author: Daniel Kokotajlo |
| | </div></li> |
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| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:resolutions_of_mathematical_conjectures_over_time">Resolutions of mathematical conjectures over time</a> — Primary author: Asya Bergal |
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| | </ul> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | ==== Blog posts added in 2020 ==== |
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| | <ul style="font-size:16px"> |
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| | <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/misalignment-and-misuse-whose-values-are-manifest/">Misalignment and misuse: whose values are manifest?</a> — Katja Grace |
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| | <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/automated-intelligence-is-not-ai/">Automated intelligence is not AI</a> — Katja Grace |
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| | <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/relevant-pre-agi-possibilities/">Relevant pre-AGI possibilities</a> — Daniel Kokotajlo, Asya Bergal |
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| | <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/description-vs-simulated-prediction/">Description vs simulated prediction</a> — Richard Korzekwa |
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| | <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/atari-early/">Atari early</a> — Katja Grace |
| | </div></li> |
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| | <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/three-kinds-of-competitiveness/">Three kinds of competitiveness</a> — Daniel Kokotajlo |
| | </div></li> |
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| | <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/agi-in-a-vulnerable-world/">AGI in a vulnerable world</a> — Asya Bergal |
| | </div></li> |
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| | <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/cortes-pizarro-and-afonso-as-precedents-for-ai-takeover/">Cortes, Pizarro, and Afonso as precedents for takeover</a> — Daniel Kokotajlo |
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| | </ul> |
| | </HTML> |
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