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takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_manned_altitude [2022/10/20 17:13]
rickkorzekwa Minor edit for clarity |
takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_manned_altitude [2022/10/20 22:25] (current)
jeffreyheninger |
| ======= Historic trends in manned altitude ======= | ======= Historic trends in manned altitude ======= |
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| // Published 18 October, 2022; last updated 18 October, 2022 // | // Published 18 October, 2022; last updated 20 October, 2022 // |
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| <p>Altitude of objects attained by a person has seen one discontinuity of more than ten years of progress at previous rates since 1800, and one non-robust discontinuity of five years, shown below.</p> | <p>The highest altitude attained by a person has seen one discontinuity of more than ten years of progress at previous rates since 1800, and one non-robust discontinuity of five years, shown below.</p> |
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| <p>We collected all entries from Wikipedia’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_altitude_record">flight altitude record</a> page, which claims to cover ‘highest aeronautical flights conducted in the atmosphere, set since the age of ballooning’. It is not entirely clear to us what ‘aeronautical flights’ covers, but seemingly at least hot air balloons and planes. This list is likely to be more complete for manned flights than for all man-made objects.</p> | <p>We collected all entries from Wikipedia’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_altitude_record">flight altitude record</a> page, which claims to cover ‘highest aeronautical flights conducted in the atmosphere, set since the age of ballooning’. It is not entirely clear to us what ‘aeronautical flights’ covers, but seemingly at least hot air balloons and planes. This list is likely to be more complete for manned flights than for all man-made objects. Manned flights are more interesting to more people, so they are more likely to be recorded, and they are typically more difficult, so fewer actors are capable of doing them.</p> |
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| <p>Starting in 1951, rocket aircraft claimed the manned altitude record for the first time and progress resumed. They set six altitude records between 1951-1961, increasing the manned altitude record from 24km to 51km. This is the time period where I am most worried about missing records. Rocket planes are not nearly as well documented as rockets. As long as none of the missing records exceed 50km in altitude, they would not change the estimate of the following discontinuity.</p> | <p>Starting in 1951, rocket aircraft claimed the manned altitude record for the first time and progress resumed. They set six altitude records between 1951-1961, increasing the manned altitude record from 24km to 51km. This was the time period I was most worried about missing records in, because they could affect the following discontinuity. The US seems to have been the only country to have developed air launch rocket aircraft after WWII. Their engines burn for only 1-2 minutes, so they are too vulnerable before launch and while gliding to find much use militarily. Aircraft with both a rocket and a jet engine are more useful militarily, but do not seem to have set any altitude records. The air launched rocket aircraft designed by the US were research aircraft, not meant for combat. <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers/armstrong/news/FactSheets/FS-035-DFRC.html">NASA</a> <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers/armstrong/news/FactSheets/FS-082-DFRC.html">Fact</a> <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers/armstrong/news/FactSheets/FS-079-DFRC.html">Sheets</a> describe these flights as records, and state that one of the Bell X-2 flights (1956) held the record until the X-15 program (1960). NASA should know what the manned altitude records were in the 1950s.</p> |
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| <p>On April 12, 1961, Yuri Gagarin became the first person to enter space, reaching an altitude of 327km on Vostok 1. This represented a discontinuity of 23 years, based on the exponential trend from rocket aircraft.</p> | <p>On April 12, 1961, Yuri Gagarin became the first person to cross the Kármán line and enter space, reaching an altitude of 327km on Vostok 1. This represented a discontinuity of 23 years, based on the exponential trend from rocket aircraft.</p> |
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