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takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_ship_size [2022/09/21 07:37]
127.0.0.1 external edit |
takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_ship_size [2023/08/21 21:50] (current)
jeffreyheninger |
| ====== Historic trends in ship size ====== | ======= Historic trends in ship size ======= |
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| // Published 22 December, 2019; last updated 28 May, 2020 // | // Published 22 December, 2019; last updated 3 October, 2022 // |
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| <p>We do not have long term data for ship size in general, however the SS <em>Great Eastern</em> seems to have produced around 400 years of discontinuity in both tonnage (BOM) and displacement if we use Royal Navy ship of the line size as a proxy, and exponential progress is expected, or 11 or 13 in the hyperbolic trend.</p> | <p>We do not have long term data for ship size in general, however the SS Great Eastern seems to have represented around 400 years of discontinuity in both tonnage (BOM) and displacement if we use Royal Navy ship of the line size as a proxy, and exponential progress is expected, or 11 or 13 in the hyperbolic trend. This discontinuity appears to have been the result of some combination of technological innovation and poor financial decisions.</p> |
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| ===== Details ===== | ====== Details ====== |
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| ==== Background ==== | ===== Background ===== |
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| <p>According to Wikipedia, naval tactics in the age of sail rewarded larger ships, because larger ships were harder to sink and could carry more guns, and battles were usually lengthy affairs in which two lines of ships fired at each other until one side surrendered.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-1-1385"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-1-1385" title='&#8220;One consequence of the line of battle was that a ship had to be strong enough to stand in it. In the old type of mêlée battle a small ship could seek out an opponent of her own size, or combine with others to attack a larger one. As the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_battle">line of battle</a>&nbsp;was adopted, navies began to distinguish between vessels that were fit to form parts of the line in action, and the smaller ships that were not. By the time the line of battle was firmly established as the standard tactical formation during the 1660s,&nbsp;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchant_ship">merchant ships</a>&nbsp;and lightly armed warships became less able to sustain their place in a pitched battle. In the line of battle, each ship had to stand and fight the opposing ship in the enemy line, however powerful she might be. The purpose-built ships powerful enough to stand in the line of battle came to be known as a&nbsp;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_the_line">ship of the line</a>.&#8221; <br>&#8220;Sailing Ship Tactics.&#8221; Wikipedia. February 08, 2019. Accessed April 23, 2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sailing_ship_tactics.'><sup>1</sup></a></span> <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-2-1385"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-2-1385" title='See<strong> </strong><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_the_line"><strong>these</strong></a><strong> </strong><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_battle"><strong>three</strong></a><strong> </strong><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sailing_ship_tactics"><strong>pages</strong></a> for more on battle tactics during this period.'><sup>2</sup></a></span> Our understanding is that when steamships and iron-clad ships appeared, the incentives towards bigger ships remained, since the best way to punch through heavy armor was to carry heavy guns, which required a big ship.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-3-1385"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-3-1385" title='&#8220;the only effective weapons against a big ship were big guns, which required a big ship to carry them.&#8221; </p> <p>“Naval Gazing Main/A Brief History of the Destroyer.” Accessed October 26, 2019. <a href="https://www.navalgazing.net/A-Brief-History-of-the-Destroyer">https://www.navalgazing.net/A-Brief-History-of-the-Destroyer</a>. '><sup>3</sup></a></span></p> | <p>According to Wikipedia, naval tactics in the age of sail rewarded larger ships, because larger ships were harder to sink and could carry more guns, and battles were usually lengthy affairs in which two lines of ships fired at each other until one side surrendered.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-1-1385"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-1-1385" title='&#8220;One consequence of the line of battle was that a ship had to be strong enough to stand in it. In the old type of mêlée battle a small ship could seek out an opponent of her own size, or combine with others to attack a larger one. As the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_battle">line of battle</a>&nbsp;was adopted, navies began to distinguish between vessels that were fit to form parts of the line in action, and the smaller ships that were not. By the time the line of battle was firmly established as the standard tactical formation during the 1660s,&nbsp;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchant_ship">merchant ships</a>&nbsp;and lightly armed warships became less able to sustain their place in a pitched battle. In the line of battle, each ship had to stand and fight the opposing ship in the enemy line, however powerful she might be. The purpose-built ships powerful enough to stand in the line of battle came to be known as a&nbsp;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_the_line">ship of the line</a>.&#8221; <br>&#8220;Sailing Ship Tactics.&#8221; Wikipedia. February 08, 2019. Accessed April 23, 2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sailing_ship_tactics.'><sup>1</sup></a></span> <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-2-1385"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-2-1385" title='See<strong> </strong><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_the_line"><strong>these</strong></a><strong> </strong><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_battle"><strong>three</strong></a><strong> </strong><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sailing_ship_tactics"><strong>pages</strong></a> for more on battle tactics during this period.'><sup>2</sup></a></span> Our understanding is that when steamships and iron-clad ships appeared, financial constraints sometimes prevented navies from building as large as technically possible, but the incentives towards bigger ships remained, since the best way to punch through heavy armor was to carry heavy guns, which required a big ship.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-3-1385"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-3-1385" title='&#8220;the only effective weapons against a big ship were big guns, which required a big ship to carry them.&#8221; </p> <p>“Naval Gazing Main/A Brief History of the Destroyer.” Accessed October 26, 2019. <a href="https://www.navalgazing.net/A-Brief-History-of-the-Destroyer">https://www.navalgazing.net/A-Brief-History-of-the-Destroyer</a>. '><sup>3</sup></a></span></p> |
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| ==== Trends ==== | ===== Trends ===== |
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| === Royal Navy first-rate line-of-battle ships ‘tonnage’ (BOM) === | ==== Royal Navy first-rate line-of-battle ships ‘tonnage’ (BOM) ==== |
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| <p>We use it because that’s what we have data on; <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Displacement_(ship)">displacement</a>, the modern way of calculating ship weight, was not widely recorded until towards the end of our dataset. Our <a href="#spot-check">Spot check</a> section offers some evidence that this choice of metric isn’t responsible for producing the largest discontinuity as an uninteresting artifact.</p> | <p>We use it because that’s what we have data on; <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Displacement_(ship)">displacement</a>, the modern way of calculating ship weight, was not widely recorded until towards the end of our dataset. Unfortunately, BOM seems to be less accurate for estimating the cargo capacity of ships after 1860, which could affect our findings in this report. However, our Spot check section offers some evidence that this choice of metric isn't responsible for producing the largest discontinuity as an uninteresting artifact.</p> |
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| == Data == | === Data === |
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| == Discontinuity measurement == | === Discontinuity measurement === |
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| = Exponential prior = | == Exponential prior == |
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| <td><strong>Tonnage (BOM)</strong></td> | <td><strong>Tonnage (BOM)</strong></td> |
| <td><strong>Discontinuity</strong></td> | <td><strong>Discontinuity</strong></td> |
| <td><strong>Ship Surname</strong></td> | <td><strong>Name</strong></td> |
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| <td>1867</td> | <td>1867</td> |
| <td>8946</td> | <td>8,946</td> |
| <td>33 years</td> | <td>33 years</td> |
| <td>Inflexible</td> | <td>Inflexible</td> |
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| = Other curves = | == Other curves == |
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| == Discussion of causes == | === Discussion of causes === |
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| == Spot check == | === Spot check === |
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| === Royal Navy first-rate line-of-battle ships displacement (tons) === | ==== Royal Navy first-rate line-of-battle ships displacement (tons) ==== |
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| == Data == | === Data === |
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| == Discontinuity Measurement == | === Discontinuity Measurement === |
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| ==== The SS Great Eastern ==== | ===== The SS Great Eastern ===== |
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| <p>We do not know why the <em>Great Eastern</em> was so exceptional. It seems that it was innovative in several ways,<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-25-1385"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-25-1385" title=' The <em>Great Eastern</em> was the first ship to use a double-skinned hull: <br>&#8220;<em>Great Eastern</em>&nbsp;was the first ship to incorporate the&nbsp;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_hull">double-skinned hull</a>, a feature which would not be seen again in a ship for several decades, but which is now compulsory for reasons of safety. &#8221; We understand that it was also one of the first European ships to be divided into watertight compartments using internal bulkheads, one of the first iron-hulled ships, and one of the first ships to use screw propulsion (although it also had sails and paddlewheels) &#8220;SS Great Eastern.&#8221; Wikipedia. April 22, 2019. Accessed April 23, 2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS_Great_Eastern. '><sup>25</sup></a></span> and that it was designed by a pair of exceptional engineer-scientists, one of whom was also partly responsible for the <em>Warrior</em>.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-26-1385"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-26-1385" title='&#8220;During the 1850s he argued within the Navy for the construction of iron warships and the first design, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Warrior_(1860)">HMS&nbsp;<em>Warrior</em></a>, is said by some to be a &#8220;Russell ship&#8221;.<sup><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Scott_Russell#cite_note-25">[25]</a><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Scott_Russell#cite_note-26">[26]</a></sup> &#8221; <br>&#8220;John Scott Russell.&#8221; Wikipedia. March 29, 2019. Accessed May 01, 2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Scott_Russell. </p> <p>&#8220;<strong>Isambard Kingdom Brunel </strong><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fellow_of_the_Royal_Society">FRS</a>&nbsp;(<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help:IPA/English">/ˈɪzəmbɑːrd&nbsp;bruːˈnɛl/</a>; 9 April 1806&nbsp;– 15 September 1859<sup><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isambard_Kingdom_Brunel#cite_note-FOOTNOTEChisholm1911-1">[1]</a></sup>), was an English&nbsp;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mechanical_engineering">mechanical</a>&nbsp; |
