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takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:penicillin_and_historic_syphilis_trends [2022/09/21 07:37] (current) |
| ====== Penicillin and historic syphilis trends ====== |
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| // Published 07 February, 2020; last updated 28 May, 2020 // |
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| <p>Penicillin did not precipitate a discontinuity of more than ten years in deaths from syphilis in the US. Nor were there other discontinuities in that trend between 1916 and 2015.</p> |
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| <p>The number of syphilis cases in the US also saw steep decline but no substantial discontinuity between 1941 and 2008.</p> |
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| <p>On brief investigation, the effectiveness of syphilis treatment and inclusive costs of syphilis treatment do not appear to have seen large discontinuities with penicillin, but we have not investigated either thoroughly enough to be confident.</p> |
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| ===== Details ===== |
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| <p>This case study is part of AI Impacts’ <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:discontinuous_progress_investigation">discontinuous progress investigation</a>.</p> |
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| ==== Background ==== |
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| <p>Penicillin was first used to treat a patient in 1941<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-1-1603"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-1-1603" title='&#8220;In 1940, Florey carried out vital experiments, showing that penicillin could protect mice against infection from deadly Streptococci. Then, on February 12, 1941, a 43-year old policeman, Albert Alexander, became the first recipient of the Oxford penicillin.&#8221;</p> <p>American Chemical Society. “Alexander Fleming Discovery and Development of Penicillin &#8211; Landmark.” Accessed January 15, 2020. <a href="https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/education/whatischemistry/landmarks/flemingpenicillin.html">https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/education/whatischemistry/landmarks/flemingpenicillin.html</a>.'><sup>1</sup></a></span> and became mass-produced in the US between 1942 and 1944.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-2-1603"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-2-1603" title='&#8220;On March 14, 1942, the first patient was treated for streptococcal sepsis with US-made penicillin produced by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merck_%26_Co.">Merck &amp; Co.</a><sup><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penicillin#cite_note-pmid18626052-38">[38]</a></sup>&nbsp;Half of the total supply produced at the time was used on that one patient, Anne Miller.<sup><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penicillin#cite_note-39">[39]</a></sup>&nbsp;By June 1942, just enough US penicillin was available to treat ten patients.<sup><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penicillin#cite_note-40">[40]</a></sup>&nbsp;In July 1943, the&nbsp;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Production_Board">War Production Board</a>&nbsp;drew up a plan for the mass distribution of penicillin stocks to Allied troops fighting in Europe.<sup><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penicillin#cite_note-JParas-41">[41]</a></sup>&nbsp;The results of fermentation research on&nbsp;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corn_steep_liquor">corn steep liquor</a>&nbsp;at the&nbsp;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Center_for_Agricultural_Utilization_Research">Northern Regional Research Laboratory</a>&nbsp;at Peoria, Illinois, allowed the United States to produce 2.3 million doses in time for the&nbsp;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Normandy">invasion of Normandy</a> in the spring of 1944&#8230;As a direct result of the war and the War Production Board, by June 1945, over 646 billion units per year were being produced.&#8221; “Penicillin,” in <em>Wikipedia</em>, May 23, 2019, <a href="https:// |