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uncategorized:ai_risk_surveys [2023/05/23 20:32]
zachsteinperlman |
uncategorized:ai_risk_surveys [2024/01/09 20:09] (current)
harlanstewart |
| | /* |
| | EDITOR COMMENTS: |
| | |
| | -Harlan: we need to add details about the 2023 survey here, and the generation lab thing |
| | */ |
| ====== AI Risk Surveys ====== | ====== AI Risk Surveys ====== |
| |
| //Published 9 May 2023; last updated 23 May 2023// | //Published 9 May 2023; last updated 23 May 2023// |
| |
| We know of four surveys of AI experts and two surveys of AI safety/governance experts on risks from advanced AI. | We know of six surveys of AI experts and two surveys of AI safety/governance experts on risks from advanced AI. |
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| ===== Details ===== | ===== Details ===== |
| * Population: "researchers who publish at computational linguistics conferences." See pp. 3–4 for details. | * Population: "researchers who publish at computational linguistics conferences." See pp. 3–4 for details. |
| * "We compute that 6323 people [published at least two papers at computational linguistics conferences] during the survey period according to publication data in the ACL Anthology, meaning we have survey responses from about 5% of the total." | * "We compute that 6323 people [published at least two papers at computational linguistics conferences] during the survey period according to publication data in the ACL Anthology, meaning we have survey responses from about 5% of the total." |
| | * [[https://www.generationlab.org/axios-generationlab-syracuse| |
| | AI EXPERT SURVEY (n=216 computer science professors)]] (Generation Lab, 2023) |
| | * [[https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai|2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI]] (Grace et al. 2023) |
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| === Not currently included on this list === | === Not currently included on this list === |
| * The informal [[https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:kruel_ai_interviews|Alexander Kruel interviews]] from 2011–2012. | * The informal [[https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:kruel_ai_interviews|Alexander Kruel interviews]] from 2011–2012. |
| * Ezra Karger and Philip Tetlock et al.'s "Hybrid Forecasting-Persuasion Tournament" (2022, results to be released around 1 June 2023). "The median AI expert gave a 3.9% chance to an existential catastrophe (where fewer than 5,000 humans survive) owing to AI by 2100" ([[https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2023/04/19/how-generative-models-could-go-wrong|The Economist]]). We will know more when the report is out. We are tentatively concerned about population quality and sampling bias. In particular, Zach Stein-Perlman was invited to participate as an AI expert in May 2022; he was not an AI expert. | * Ezra Karger and Philip Tetlock et al.'s "Hybrid Forecasting-Persuasion Tournament" (2022, results to be released around 1 June 2023). "The median AI expert gave a 3.9% chance to an existential catastrophe (where fewer than 5,000 humans survive) owing to AI by 2100" ([[https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2023/04/19/how-generative-models-could-go-wrong|The Economist]]). We will know more when the report is out. We are tentatively concerned about population quality and sampling bias. In particular, Zach Stein-Perlman was invited to participate as an AI expert in May 2022; he was not an AI expert. |
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| ==== Surveys of AI safety/governance experts ==== | ==== Surveys of AI safety/governance experts ==== |
