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uncategorized:ai_risk_surveys [2024/08/12 19:12]
katjagrace [AI Risk Surveys] 		uncategorized:ai_risk_surveys [2024/08/12 19:34] (current)
katjagrace
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 -Harlan: we need to add details about the 2023 survey here, and the generation lab thing -Harlan: we need to add details about the 2023 survey here, and the generation lab thing
 */ */
-====== AI Risk Surveys ======+====== Surveys of experts on levels of AI Risk ======
  
 //Published 9 May 2023; last updated 23 May 2023// //Published 9 May 2023; last updated 23 May 2023//
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 We know of six surveys of AI experts and two surveys of AI safety/governance experts on risks from advanced AI. We know of six surveys of AI experts and two surveys of AI safety/governance experts on risks from advanced AI.
  
-===== Details =====+===== Surveys of AI experts =====
  
-==== Surveys of AI experts ==== +==== 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI ====
- +
-=== 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI ===+
  
 //(Main article: [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai|2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI]])// //(Main article: [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai|2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI]])//
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       * The survey was sent to 1634 people and received 352 responses.       * The survey was sent to 1634 people and received 352 responses.
  
-=== Zhang et al 2019 ===+==== Zhang et al 2019 ====
  
   * [[https://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.04132.pdf#page=24|Forecasting AI Progress: Evidence from a Survey of Machine Learning Researchers]] (Zhang et al. 2019, published 2022)   * [[https://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.04132.pdf#page=24|Forecasting AI Progress: Evidence from a Survey of Machine Learning Researchers]] (Zhang et al. 2019, published 2022)
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     * Population: authors of papers at ICML or NeurIPS 2018     * Population: authors of papers at ICML or NeurIPS 2018
       * The survey was sent to 2652 people and received 524 responses.       * The survey was sent to 2652 people and received 524 responses.
-  * [[https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai|2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI]] (Grace et al. 2022, publication forthcoming in 2023)+ 
 +==== 2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI ==== 
 + 
 + 
 +//(Main article: [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai|2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI]])// 
 + 
 +  * [[https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai|2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI]] (Grace et al. 2022) 
 + 
     * Extinction     * Extinction
       * "What probability do you put on future AI advances causing human extinction or similarly permanent and severe disempowerment of the human species?       * "What probability do you put on future AI advances causing human extinction or similarly permanent and severe disempowerment of the human species?
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   * Population: authors of papers at ICML or NeurIPS 2021   * Population: authors of papers at ICML or NeurIPS 2021
     * The survey was sent to "approximately 4271" people and received 738 responses.     * The survey was sent to "approximately 4271" people and received 738 responses.
 +
 +==== Michael et al 2022 ====
 +
   * [[https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.12852.pdf#page=10|What Do NLP Researchers Believe? Results of the NLP Community Metasurvey]] (Michael et al. 2022)   * [[https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.12852.pdf#page=10|What Do NLP Researchers Believe? Results of the NLP Community Metasurvey]] (Michael et al. 2022)
     * Nuclear-level catastrophe     * Nuclear-level catastrophe
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     * Population: "researchers who publish at computational linguistics conferences." See pp. 3–4 for details.     * Population: "researchers who publish at computational linguistics conferences." See pp. 3–4 for details.
       * "​​We compute that 6323 people [published at least two papers at computational linguistics conferences] during the survey period according to publication data in the ACL Anthology, meaning we have survey responses from about 5% of the total."       * "​​We compute that 6323 people [published at least two papers at computational linguistics conferences] during the survey period according to publication data in the ACL Anthology, meaning we have survey responses from about 5% of the total."
 +
 +==== Generation Lab 2023 ====
 +
   * [[https://www.generationlab.org/axios-generationlab-syracuse|   * [[https://www.generationlab.org/axios-generationlab-syracuse|
 AI EXPERT SURVEY (n=216 computer science professors)]] (Generation Lab, 2023) AI EXPERT SURVEY (n=216 computer science professors)]] (Generation Lab, 2023)
 +
 +==== Expert Survey on Progress in AI 2023 ====
 +
   * [[https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai|2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI]] (Grace et al. 2023)   * [[https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai|2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI]] (Grace et al. 2023)
  
uncategorized/ai_risk_surveys.1723489930.txt.gz · Last modified: 2024/08/12 19:12 by katjagrace

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