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uncategorized:ai_safety_arguments_affected_by_chaos [2023/04/06 00:47]
jeffreyheninger 		uncategorized:ai_safety_arguments_affected_by_chaos [2023/04/12 22:32] (current)
katjagrace [AI Safety Arguments Affected by Chaos]
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 //Created 31 March, 2023. Last updated 31 March, 2023.// //Created 31 March, 2023. Last updated 31 March, 2023.//
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 +//This page is under review and may be updated soon.//
  
 Chaos theory allows us to show that some predictions cannot be reliably made, even using arbitrary intelligence. Some things about human brains seem to be in that category, which affects how advanced AI might interact with humans. Chaos theory allows us to show that some predictions cannot be reliably made, even using arbitrary intelligence. Some things about human brains seem to be in that category, which affects how advanced AI might interact with humans.
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 Simple food chains can exhibit some interesting dynamics in the size of populations of various species.((The classic example involves a 220 year dataset of the number of lynx and snowshoe hare pelts caught by the Hudson Bay Company. \\ May. //Stability and Complexity in Model Ecosystems.// (Princeton University Press, 1974) )) More complicated food webs involving many species likely can be chaotic, although it is hard to distinguish this from changes in the population as a result of a chaos in the environment. Simple food chains can exhibit some interesting dynamics in the size of populations of various species.((The classic example involves a 220 year dataset of the number of lynx and snowshoe hare pelts caught by the Hudson Bay Company. \\ May. //Stability and Complexity in Model Ecosystems.// (Princeton University Press, 1974) )) More complicated food webs involving many species likely can be chaotic, although it is hard to distinguish this from changes in the population as a result of a chaos in the environment.
  
-Markets also involve many actors with complicated interactions, so it seems likely that there is chaos involved to some extent. Since people have incentives to look for arbitrary patterns and to respond to them, it is probably better to model markets as anti-inductive.((The difference between chaotic and anti-inductive systems is explained in Section 2 of the accompanying report. \\ Heninger & Johnson. //Chaos and Intrinsic Unpredictability.// AI Impacts. [[http://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Chaos-and-Intrinsic-Unpredictability.pdf]].))+Markets also involve many actors with complicated interactions, so it seems likely that there is chaos involved to some extent. Since people have incentives to look for arbitrary patterns and to respond to them, it is probably better to model markets as anti-inductive.((The difference between chaotic and anti-inductive systems is explained in Section 3 of the accompanying report. \\ Heninger & Johnson. //Chaos and Intrinsic Unpredictability.// AI Impacts. [[http://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Chaos-and-Intrinsic-Unpredictability.pdf]].))
  
 Perhaps the most interesting potentially chaotic thing is the human brain. It is discussed in the next section.  Perhaps the most interesting potentially chaotic thing is the human brain. It is discussed in the next section. 
uncategorized/ai_safety_arguments_affected_by_chaos.1680742034.txt.gz · Last modified: 2023/04/06 00:47 by jeffreyheninger

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