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ai_timelines:discontinuous_progress_investigation [2022/09/21 07:37] (current)
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| | ====== Discontinuous progress investigation ====== |
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| | // Published 02 February, 2015; last updated 08 March, 2021 // |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>We have collected cases of discontinuous technological progress to inform our understanding of whether artificial intelligence performance is likely to undergo such a discontinuity. This page details our investigation.</p> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>We know of ten events that produced a robust discontinuity in progress equivalent to more than a century at previous rates in at least one interesting metric and 53 events that produced smaller or less robust discontinuities.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | ===== Details ===== |
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| | ==== Motivations ==== |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>We are interested in learning <a href="/doku.php?id=featured_articles:likelihood_of_discontinuous_progress_around_the_development_of_agi">whether artificial intelligence is likely to see discontinuous progress in the lead-up</a> to <a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/human-level-ai/">human-level</a> capabilities, or to produce discontinuous change in any other socially important metrics (e.g. percent of global wealth possessed by a single entity, economic value of hardware). We are interested because we think this informs us about the plausibility of different future scenarios and about which research and other interventions are best now, and also because it is a source of disagreement, and so perhaps fruitful for resolution.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-1-414"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-1-414" title='For instance, if the development of advanced AI takes place in the context of a large discontinuity, then it is arguably more likely to involve large shifts in power, to take place sooner than predicted, to be surprising, to be disruptive, and to be dangerous. Also, our research should investigate questions such as how to prepare or be warned, rather than questions like when the present trajectories of AI progress will reach human-level capabilities. See <a href="http://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/">likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI</a> for more discussion.'><sup>1</sup></a></span></p> |
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| | <p>We seek to answer this question by investigating the prevalence and nature of discontinuities in other technological progress trends. The prevalence can then act as a baseline for our expectations about AI, which can be updated with any further <a href="/doku.php?id=featured_articles:likelihood_of_discontinuous_progress_around_the_development_of_agi">AI-specific evidence</a>, including that which comes from looking at the nature of other discontinuities (for instance, whether they arise in circumstances that are predicted by the <a href="/doku.php?id=featured_articles:likelihood_of_discontinuous_progress_around_the_development_of_agi">arguments</a> that are made for predicting discontinuous progress in AI).</p> |
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| | <p>In particular, we want to know:</p> |
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| | <ul> |
| | <li><div class="li">How common are large discontinuities in metrics related to technological progress?</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Do any factors predict where such discontinuities will arise? (For instance, is it true that progress in a conceptual endeavor is more likely to proceed discontinuously? If there have been discontinuities in progress on a metric in the past, are further discontinuities more likely?) </div></li> |
| | </ul> |
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| | <p>As a secondary goal, we are interested in learning about the circumstances that have surrounded discontinuous technological change in the past, insofar as it may inform our expectations about the consequences of discontinuous progress in AI, should it happen.</p> |
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| | ==== Methods ==== |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article: <a href="/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:pace_of_ai_progress_without_feedback:historical_continuity_of_progress:methodology_for_discontinuous_progress_investigation">methodology for discontinuous progress investigation</a>.</em></p> |
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| | <p>To learn about the prevalence and nature of discontinuities in technological progress, we:</p> |
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| | <ol> |
| | <li><div class="li">Searched for potential examples of discontinuous progress (e.g. ‘Eli Whitney’s cotton gin’) via our own understanding, online search, and suggestions from others.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-2-414"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-2-414" title="We thank "><sup>2</sup></a></span></div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Chose specific metrics related to these potential examples (e.g. ‘cotton ginned per person per day’, ‘value of cotton ginned per cost’) and found historic data on progress on those metrics (usually in conjunction with choosing metrics, since metrics for which we can find data are much preferred). Some datasets we found already formed in one place, while others we collected ourselves from secondary sources.</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Defined a ‘rate of past progress’ throughout each historic dataset (e.g. if the trend is broadly flat then gets steeper, we decide whether to call this exponential progress, or two periods of linear growth.)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Measured the discontinuity at each datapoint in each trend by comparing the progress at the point to the expected progress at that point based on the last datapoint and the rate of past progress (e.g. if the last datapoint five years ago was 600 units, and progress had been going at two units per year, and now a development took it to 800 units, we would calculate 800 units – 600 units = 200 units of progress = 100 years of progress in 5 years, for a 95 year discontinuity.)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Noted any discontinuities of more than ten years (‘moderate discontinuities’), and more than one hundred years (‘large discontinuities’)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Judged subjectively whether the discontinuity was a clear divergence from the past trend (i.e. the past trend was well-formed enough that the new point actually seemed well outside of plausible continuations of it).<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-3-414"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-3-414" title='See <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1994197408&amp;range=AX:AX">this</a> spreadsheet column for the judgments.'><sup>3</sup></a></span></div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Noted anything interesting about the circumstances of each discontinuity (e.g. the type of metric it was in, the events that appeared to lead to the discontinuity, the patterns of progress around it.)</div></li> |
| | </ol> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <p>Note that this is not an attempt to rigorously estimate the frequency of discontinuities in arbitrary trends, since we have not attempted to select arbitrary trends. We have instead selected trends we think might contain large discontinuities. Given this, it may be used as a loose upper bound on the frequency of discontinuities in similar technological trends.</p> |
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| | <p>It is likely that there are many minor errors in this collection of data and analysis, based on the rate at which we have found and corrected them, and the unreliability of sources used.</p> |
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| | === Definitions === |
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| | <p>Throughout, we use:</p> |
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| | <ul> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong><a href="/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:pace_of_ai_progress_without_feedback:historical_continuity_of_progress:methodology_for_discontinuous_progress_investigation#Discontinuity_calculation">Discontinuity</a>:</strong> abrupt progress far above what one would have expected by extrapolation, measured in terms of how many years early the progress appeared relative to its expected date.</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>Moderate discontinuity:</strong> 10-100 years of progress at previous rates occurred on one occasion</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>Large discontinuity:</strong> at least 100 years of progress at previous rates occurred on one occasion</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>Substantial discontinuity:</strong> a moderate or large discontinuity</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong><a href="/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:pace_of_ai_progress_without_feedback:historical_continuity_of_progress:methodology_for_discontinuous_progress_investigation#Robust_discontinuities">Robust discontinuity</a>:</strong> a discontinuity judged to involve a clear divergence from the past trend</div></li> |
| | </ul> |
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| | ==== Summary figures ==== |
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| | <ul> |
| | <li><div class="li">We collected 21 case studies of potentially discontinuous technological progress (see <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:discontinuous_progress_investigation?preview_id=414&preview_nonce=5c1b7b6d73&preview=true#Case_studies"><em>Case studies</em></a> below) and investigated 38 trends associated with them. |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">20 trends had a substantial discontinuity, and 15 had a large discontinuity.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-4-414"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-4-414" title="Recall that our trends were selected for being especially likely to contain discontinuities, so this is something like an upper bound on their frequency in trends in general. However some trends we investigated for fairly limited periods, so these may have contained more discontinuities than we found."><sup>4</sup></a></span></div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">We found 88 substantial discontinuities, 39 of them large.</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">These discontinuities were produced by 63 distinct events</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Ten events produced robust large discontinuities in at least one metric.</div></li> |
| | </ul> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | ==== Case studies ==== |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>This is a list of areas of technological progress which we have tentatively determined to either involve discontinuous technological progress, or not. Note that we largely investigate cases that looked likely to be discontinuous.</p> |
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| | === Ship size === |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article: <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_ship_size">Historic trends in ship size</a></em></p> |
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| | <p>Trends for ship tonnage (builder’s old measurement) and ship displacement for Royal Navy first rate line-of-battle ships saw eleven and six discontinuities of between ten and one hundred years respectively during the period 1637-1876, if progress is treated as linear or exponential as usual. There is a hyperbolic extrapolation of progress such that neither measurement sees any discontinuities of more than ten years.</p> |
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| | <p>We do not have long term data for ship size in general, however the SS <em>Great Eastern</em> seems to have produced around 400 years of discontinuity in both tonnage (BOM) and displacement if we use Royal Navy ship of the line size as a proxy, and exponential progress is expected, or 11 or 13 in the hyperbolic trend.</p> |
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| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2072" height="431" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Tonnage-1024x768.png" width="574"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 1a:</strong> Record tonnages for Royal Navy ships of the line |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
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| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2069" height="428" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/DisplacementGE-1024x768.png" width="570"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 1b:</strong> Ship weight (displacement) over time, Royal Navy ships of the line and the <em>Great Eastern</em>, a discontinuously large civilian ship. The largest ship in the world three years prior to the <em>Great Eastern</em> was around 4% larger than the Ship of the Line of that time in this figure, so we know that the overall largest ship trend cannot have been much steeper than the Royal Navy ship of the line trend shown. |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
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| | |
| | === Image recognition === |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article: <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:effect_of_alexnet_on_historic_trends_in_image_recognition">Effect of AlexNet on historic trends in image recognition</a></em></p> |
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| | <p>AlexNet did not represent a greater than 10-year discontinuity in fraction of images labeled incorrectly, or log or inverse of this error rate, relative to progress in the past two years of competition data.</p> |
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| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" height="359" loading="lazy" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/w-e-81fXsk_eLCXQ0C0dyoIf2526s-Gf42ZnC3eQ7iM3ZQfd6oy3V5yCpcgxjNDXbaqiN4EPMbfFh3h6tU7egni6eEBcWGMhRt-Ravk1-m5eMzZ27k27xVYvqfuTeC8p1iD6Oih4" width="582"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 2:</strong> Error rate (%) of ImageNet competitors from 2010 – 2012 |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
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| | === Transatlantic passenger travel === |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article: <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_transatlantic_passenger_travel">Historic trends in transatlantic passenger travel</a></em></p> |
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| | <p>The speed of human travel across the Atlantic Ocean has seen at least seven discontinuities of more than ten years’ progress at past rates, two of which represented more than one hundred years’ progress at past rates: Columbus’ second journey, and the first non-stop transatlantic flight.</p> |
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| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2170" height="464" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Passenger-1024x791.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 3a:</strong> Historical fastest passenger travel across the Atlantic (speeds averaged over each transatlantic voyage) |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2171" height="464" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/PassengerZoom-1024x791.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 3b:</strong> Previous figure, shown since 1730 |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | === Transatlantic message speed === |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article: <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_transatlantic_message_speed">Historic trends in transatlantic message speed</a></em></p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>The speed of delivering a short message across the Atlantic Ocean saw at least three discontinuities of more than ten years before 1929, all of which also were more than one thousand years: a 1465-year discontinuity from Columbus’ second voyage in 1493, a 2085-year discontinuity from the first telegraph cable in 1858, and then a 1335-year discontinuity from the second telegraph cable in 1866.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2179" height="371" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Time-to-send-a-140-character-message-across-the-Atlantic-Ocean.png" srcset="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Time-to-send-a-140-character-message-across-the-Atlantic-Ocean.png 600w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Time-to-send-a-140-character-message-across-the-Atlantic-Ocean-300x186.png 300w" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 4:</strong> Average speed for message transmission across the Atlantic. |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | === Long range military payload delivery === |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article: <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_long-range_military_payload_delivery">Historic trends in long range military payload delivery</a></em></p> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>The speed at which a military payload could cross the Atlantic ocean contained six greater than 10-year discontinuities in 1493 and between 1841 and 1957:</p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-table"> |
| | <table> |
| | <tbody> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td><strong>Date</strong></td> |
| | <td><strong>Mode of transport</strong></td> |
| | <td><strong>Knots</strong></td> |
| | <td><strong>Discontinuity size<br/> |
| | (years of progress<br/> |
| | at past rate)</strong></td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1493</td> |
| | <td>Columbus’ second voyage</td> |
| | <td>5.8</td> |
| | <td>1465</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1884</td> |
| | <td>Oregon</td> |
| | <td>18.6</td> |
| | <td>10</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1919</td> |
| | <td>WWI Bomber<br/> |
| | (first non-stop<br/> |
| | transatlantic flight)</td> |
| | <td>106</td> |
| | <td>351</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1938</td> |
| | <td>Focke-Wulf Fw 200 Condor</td> |
| | <td>174</td> |
| | <td>19</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1945</td> |
| | <td>Lockheed Constellation</td> |
| | <td>288</td> |
| | <td>25</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1957</td> |
| | <td>R-7 (ICBM)</td> |
| | <td>~10,000</td> |
| | <td>~500</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | </tbody> |
| | </table> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2176" height="371" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Speed-of-transatlantic-military-payload-delivery-4.png" srcset="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Speed-of-transatlantic-military-payload-delivery-4.png 600w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Speed-of-transatlantic-military-payload-delivery-4-300x186.png 300w" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 5:</strong> Historic speeds of sending hypothetical military payloads across the Atlantic Ocean |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | |
| | === Bridge spans === |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article: <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_bridge_span_length">Historic trends in bridge span length</a></em></p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>We measure eight discontinuities of over ten years in the history of longest bridge spans, four of them of over one hundred years, five of them robust as to slight changes in trend extrapolation.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2087" height="371" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Historic-longest-bridge-spans-5-bridge-types-after-1800.png" srcset="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Historic-longest-bridge-spans-5-bridge-types-after-1800.png 600w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Historic-longest-bridge-spans-5-bridge-types-after-1800-300x186.png 300w" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 6:</strong> Record bridge span lengths for five bridge types since 1800 |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | |
| | === Light intensity === |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article: <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_light_intensity">Historic trends in light intensity</a></em></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Maximum light intensity of artificial light sources has discontinuously increased once that we know of: argon flashes represented roughly 1000 years of progress at past rates.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2137" height="464" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/LightIntensityRecent-1024x791.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 7:</strong> Light intensity trend since 1800 (longer trend <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_light_intensity">available</a>) |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | === Book production === |
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| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article: <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_book_production">Historic trends in book production</a></em></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>The number of books produced in the previous hundred years, sampled every hundred or fifty years between 600AD to 1800AD contains five greater than 10-year discontinuities, four of them greater than 100 years. The last two follow the invention of the printing press in 1492.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>The real price of books dropped precipitously following the invention of the printing press, but the longer term trend is sufficiently ambiguous that this may not represent a substantial discontinuity.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>The rate of progress of book production changed shortly after the invention of the printing press, from a doubling time of 104 years to 43 years.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2065" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/BookProduction-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 8a:</strong> Total book production in Western Europe |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2066" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/RealPrice-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 8b:</strong> Real price of books in England |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | |
| | === Telecommunications performance === |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article: <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_telecommunications_performance">Historic trends in telecommunications performance</a></em></p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>There do not appear to have been any greater than 10-year discontinuities in telecommunications performance, measured as:</p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <ul> |
| | <li><div class="li">bandwidth-distance product for all technologies 1840-2015</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">bandwidth-distance product for optical fiber 1975-2000</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">total bandwidth across the Atlantic 1956-2018</div></li> |
| | </ul> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Radio does not seem likely to have represented a discontinuity in message speed.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image"> |
| | <img alt="" src="https://media.springernature.com/original/springer-static/image/chp%3A10.1007%2F978-3-319-31903-2_8/MediaObjects/370011_1_En_8_Fig2_HTML.gif"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 9a:</strong> Growth in bandwidth-distance product across all telecommunications during 1840-2015 from Agrawal, 2016<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-5-414"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-5-414" title='Agrawal, Govind P. 2016. &#8220;Optical Communication: Its History And Recent Progress&#8221;. Optics In Our Time, 177-199. Springer International Publishing. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-31903-2_8., <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-31903-2_8">https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-31903-2_8</a>'><sup>5</sup></a></span> |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image"> |
| | <img alt="Fig. 8.8" src="https://media.springernature.com/lw785/springer-static/image/chp%3A10.1007%2F978-3-319-31903-2_8/MediaObjects/370011_1_En_8_Fig8_HTML.gif"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 9b</strong>:<br/> |
| | Bandwidth-distance product in fiber optics alone, from Agrawal, 2016<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-6-414"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-6-414" title='Agrawal, Govind P. 2016. &#8220;Optical Communication: Its History And Recent Progress&#8221;. Optics In Our Time, 177-199. Springer International Publishing. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-31903-2_8., <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-31903-2_8">https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-31903-2_8</a>'><sup>6</sup></a></span> (Note: 1 Gb = 10^9 bits) |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2076" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/CableBandwidth-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 9c:</strong> Transatlantic cable bandwidth of all types. Pre-1980 cables were copper, post-1980 cables were optical fiber. |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | === Cotton gins === |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article:</em> <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:effect_of_eli_whitneys_cotton_gin_on_historic_trends_in_cotton_ginning"><em>Effect of Eli Whitney’s cotton gin on historic trends in cotton ginning</em></a></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>We estimate that Eli Whitney’s cotton gin represented a 10 to 25 year discontinuity in pounds of cotton ginned per person per day, in 1793. Two innovations in 1747 and 1788 look like discontinuities of over a thousand years each on this metric, but these could easily stem from our ignorance of such early developments. We tentatively doubt that Whitney’s gin represented a large discontinuity in the cost per value of cotton ginned, though it may have represented a moderate one.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2060" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/AllGinData-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 10:</strong> Claimed cotton gin productivity figures, 1720 to modern day, coded by credibility and being records. The last credible best point before the modern day is an improved version of Whitney’s gin, two years after the original (the original features in the two high non-credible claims slightly earlier). |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | === Altitude === |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article: <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_altitude">Historic trends in altitude</a></em></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Altitude of objects attained by man-made means has seen six discontinuities of more than ten years of progress at previous rates since 1783, shown below.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-table"> |
| | <table> |
| | <tbody> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td><strong>Year</strong></td> |
| | <td><strong>Height (m)</strong></td> |
| | <td><strong>Discontinuity (years)</strong></td> |
| | <td><strong>Entity</strong></td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1784</td> |
| | <td>4000</td> |
| | <td>1032</td> |
| | <td>Balloon</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1803</td> |
| | <td>7280</td> |
| | <td>1693</td> |
| | <td>Balloon</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1918</td> |
| | <td>42,300</td> |
| | <td>227</td> |
| | <td> |
| | <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Gun">Paris gun</a> |
| | </td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1942</td> |
| | <td>85,000</td> |
| | <td>120</td> |
| | <td> |
| | <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_V-2_test_launches">V-2 Rocket</a> |
| | </td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1944</td> |
| | <td>174,600</td> |
| | <td>11</td> |
| | <td> |
| | <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_V-2_test_launches">V-2 Rocket</a> |
| | </td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1957</td> |
| | <td>864,000,000</td> |
| | <td>35</td> |
| | <td>Pellets (after one day)</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | </tbody> |
| | </table> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2154" height="335" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 581px) 100vw, 581px" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Altitudes-since-1750-3.png" srcset="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Altitudes-since-1750-3.png 1008w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Altitudes-since-1750-3-300x173.png 300w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Altitudes-since-1750-3-768x443.png 768w" width="581"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 11:</strong> Post-1750 altitudes of various objects, including many non-records. Whether we collected data for non-records is inconsistent, so this is not a complete picture of progress within object types. See image in detail <a href="http://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Altitudes-since-1750-3.png">here</a>. |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | === Slow light === |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article: <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_slow_light_technology">Historic trends in slow light technology</a></em></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Group index of light appears to have seen discontinuities of 22 years in 1995 from Coherent Population Trapping (CPT) and 37 years in 1999 from EIT (condensate). Pulse delay of light over a short distance may have had a large discontinuity in 1994 but our data is not good enough to judge. After 1994, pulse delay does not appear to have seen discontinuities of more than ten years.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><strong>Figure 12:</strong> Progress in pulse delay and group index. “Human speed” shows the rough scale of motion familiar to humans.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | === Particle accelerators === |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Main article: <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_particle_accelerator_performance">Historic trends in particle accelerator performance</a></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>None of particle energy, center-of-mass energy nor Lorentz factor achievable by particle accelerators appears to have undergone a discontinuity of more than ten years of progress at previous rates.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2101" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/ParticleEnergy-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 13a:</strong> Particle energy in eV over time |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2102" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CMEnergy-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 13b:</strong> Center-of-mass energy in eV over time |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2036" height="371" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/gamma-vs.-Year.png" srcset="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/gamma-vs.-Year.png 600w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/gamma-vs.-Year-300x186.png 300w" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 13c:</strong> Lorentz factor (gamma) over time. |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | === Penicillin on syphilis === |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article: <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:penicillin_and_historic_syphilis_trends">Penicillin and historic syphilis trends</a></em></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Penicillin did not precipitate a discontinuity of more than ten years in deaths from syphilis in the US. Nor were there other discontinuities in that trend between 1916 and 2015.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>The number of syphilis cases in the US also saw steep decline but no substantial discontinuity between 1941 and 2008.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>On brief investigation, the effectiveness of syphilis treatment and inclusive costs of syphilis treatment do not appear to have seen large discontinuities with penicillin, but we have not investigated either thoroughly enough to be confident.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><strong>Figure 14a</strong>: Syphilis—Reported Cases by Stage of Infection, United States, 1941–2009, according to the CDC<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-7-414"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-7-414" title='From Figure 33 in Division of STD Prevention, “Sexually Transmitted Disease Surveillance 2009,” November 2010, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170120091355/https://www.cdc.gov/std/stats09/surv2009-Complete.pdf">https://web.archive.org/web/20170120091355/https://www.cdc.gov/std/stats09/surv2009-Complete.pdf</a>.'><sup>7</sup></a></span></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image alignnone"> |
| | <a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/syphilis.png"><img alt="syphilis" class="wp-image-389" height="432" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 520px) 100vw, 520px" src="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/syphilis.png" srcset="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/syphilis.png 520w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/syphilis-300x249.png 300w" width="520"/></a> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 14b:</strong> Syphilis and AIDS mortality rates in the US during the 20th century.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-8-414"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-8-414" title='See table 4D in Gregory L. Armstrong, Laura A. Conn, and Robert W. Pinner, “Trends in Infectious Disease Mortality in the United States During the 20th Century,” <em>JAMA</em> 281, no. 1 (January 6, 1999): 61–66, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.281.1.61">https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.281.1.61</a>.'><sup>8</sup></a></span> |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | === Nuclear weapons === |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article:</em> <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:effect_of_nuclear_weapons_on_historic_trends_in_explosives">Effect of nuclear weapons on historic trends in explosives</a></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Nuclear weapons constituted a ~7 thousand year discontinuity in energy released per weight of explosive (relative effectiveness).</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Nuclear weapons do not appear to have clearly represented progress in the cost-effectiveness of explosives, though the evidence there is weak.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2105" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/RelativeEffectiveness-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 15:</strong> Relative effectiveness of explosives, up to early nuclear bomb (note change to log scale) |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | === High temperature superconductors === |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article: <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_the_maximum_superconducting_temperature">Historic trends in the maximum superconducting temperature</a></em></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>The maximum superconducting temperature of any material up to 1993 contained four greater than 10-year discontinuities: A 14-year discontinuity with NbN in 1941, a 26-year discontinuity with LaBaCuO4 in 1986, a 140-year discontinuity with YBa2Cu3O7 in 1987, and a 10-year discontinuity with BiCaSrCu2O9 in 1987.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>YBa2Cu3O7 superconductors seem to correspond to a marked change in the rate of progress of maximum superconducting temperature, from a rate of progress of .41 Kelvin per year to a rate of 5.7 Kelvin per year.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2251" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Temperature-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 16:</strong> Maximum superconducting temperate by material over time through 2015<br/> |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | === Land speed records === |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article: <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_land_speed_records">historic trends in land speed records</a></em></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Land speed records did not see any greater-than-10-year discontinuities relative to linear progress across all records. Considered as several distinct linear trends it saw discontinuities of 12, 13, 25, and 13 years, the first two corresponding to early (but not first) jet-propelled vehicles.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>The first jet-propelled vehicle just predated a marked change in the rate of progress of land speed records, from a recent 1.8 mph / year to 164 mph / year.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" height="360" loading="lazy" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/eCOr_JdyKmcr8otgQ7ts2YzG5ZaY0iashNCOlPDbIEh5BsKevQvJQfqAlKuvi-rcTlw8uhCielPs80qxKpwWz5l6If8mVpuQnSfWh83sFnlw_XFwYIlmzAFjBNvk4eAIvMKcVzH3" width="583"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 17:</strong> Historic land speed records in mph over time. Speeds on the left are an average of the record set in mph over 1 km and over 1 mile. The red dot represents the first record in a cluster that was from a jet propelled vehicle. The discontinuities of more than ten years are the third and fourth turbojet points, and the last two points. |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | === Chess AI === |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article: <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_chess_ai">Historic trends in chess AI</a></em></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>The Elo rating of the best chess program measured by the Swedish Chess Computer Association did not contain any greater than 10-year discontinuities between 1984 and 2018. </p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-1639" height="361" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 585px) 100vw, 585px" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/image-2-1024x633.png" srcset="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/image-2-1024x633.png 1024w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/image-2-300x185.png 300w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/image-2-768x475.png 768w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/image-2.png 1319w" width="585"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 18:</strong> Elo ratings of the best program on SSDF at the end of each year. |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | === Flight airspeed === |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article:</em> <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:historic_trends_in_flight_airspeed_records"><em>Historic trends in flight airspeed records</em></a></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Flight airspeed records between 1903 and 1976 contained one greater than 10-year discontinuity: a 19-year discontinuity corresponding to the Fairey Delta 2 flight in 1956.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>The average annual growth in flight airspeed markedly increased with the Fairey Delta 2, from 16mph/year to 129mph/year.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" height="359" loading="lazy" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/8t3ONdcpzCrC_6h34Pb5XSS4h1MkCt8HAZ-FbzJYJpHykEOCPV4KDAk-3Bt0LGhTvY_iCXAzJotvOABhAq4QflopZdvbvvED4Y4-K4qiWAH1WjLO03YR143gayqc-L_RJpRy1KXS" width="581"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 19:</strong> Flight airspeed records over time |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | === Structure heights === |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article:</em> <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:historic_trends_in_structure_heights"><em>Historic trends in structure heights</em></a></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Trends for tallest ever structure heights, tallest ever freestanding structure heights, tallest existing freestanding structure heights, and tallest ever building heights have each seen 5-8 discontinuities of more than ten years. These are:</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <ul> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>Djoser and Meidum pyramids</strong> (~2600BC, >1000 year discontinuities in all structure trends)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Three cathedrals that were shorter than the all-time record (<strong>Beauvais</strong> <strong>Cathedral</strong> in 1569, <strong>St Nikolai</strong> in 1874, and <strong>Rouen</strong> <strong>Cathedral</strong> in 1876, all >100 year discontinuities in current freestanding structure trend)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>Washington Monument</strong> (1884, >100 year discontinuity in both tallest ever structure trends, but not a notable discontinuity in existing structure trend)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>Eiffel Tower</strong> (1889, ~10,000 year discontinuity in both tallest ever structure trends, 54 year discontinuity in existing structure trend)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Two early skyscrapers: the <strong>Singer Building</strong> and the <strong>Metropolitan Life Tower</strong> (1908 and 1909, each >300 year discontinuities in building height only)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>Empire State Building</strong> (1931, 19 years in all structure trends, 10 years in buildings trend)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>KVLY-TV mast</strong> (1963, 20 year discontinuity in tallest ever structure trend)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>Taipei 101</strong> (2004, 13 year discontinuity in building height only)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>Burj Khalifa</strong> (2009, ~30 year discontinuity in both freestanding structure trends, 90 year discontinuity in building height trend)</div></li> |
| | </ul> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2234" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/StructureRecord-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 20a:</strong> All-time record structure heights, long term history |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <a href="http://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/StructureRecordZoom.png"><img alt="" class="wp-image-2230" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/StructureRecordZoom.png" width="600"/></a> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 20b:</strong> All-time record structure heights, recent history |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2233" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/RecordFreestandingStructure-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 20c:</strong> All-time record freestanding structure heights, long term history |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <a href="http://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/RecordFreeZoom.png"><img alt="" class="wp-image-2229" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/RecordFreeZoom.png" width="600"/></a> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 20d:</strong> All-time record freestanding structure heights, recent history |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <a href="http://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/CurrentFreestandingStructure.png"><img alt="" class="wp-image-2235" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/CurrentFreestandingStructure.png" width="600"/></a> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 20e:</strong> At-the-time record freestanding structure heights, long term history |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2231" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/CurrentFreeZoom-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 20f:</strong> At-the-time record freestanding structure heights, recent history |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"> |
| | <a href="http://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/TallestBuilding.png"><img alt="" class="wp-image-2236" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/TallestBuilding.png" width="600"/></a> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 20g:</strong> All-time record building heights, longer term history |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2232" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/TallestBuildingZoom-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 20h:</strong> All-time record building heights, longer term history |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | === Breech loading rifles === |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Main article: <a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:effects_of_breech_loading_rifles_on_historic_trends_in_firearm_progress">Effects of breech loading rifles on historic trends in firearm progress</a></em></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Breech loading rifles do not appear to have represented a discontinuity in firing rate of guns, since it appears that other guns had a similar firing rate already. It remains possible that breech loading rifles represent a discontinuity in another related metric.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | === Incomplete case studies === |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><a href="/doku.php?id=takeoff_speed:continuity_of_progress:incomplete_case_studies_of_discontinuous_progress">This</a> is a list of cases we have partially investigated, but insufficiently to include in this page.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | ==== Extended observations ==== |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit?usp=sharing">This spreadsheet</a> contains summary data and statistics about the entire set of case studies, including all calculations for findings that follow.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | === Prevalence of discontinuities === |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <ul> |
| | <li><div class="li">We investigated 38 trends in around 21 broad areas<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-9-414"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-9-414" title="e.g. within the area of &#8216;structure height&#8217; we investigated &#8216;all time tallest buildings, measured by architectural height&#8217; and also &#8216;tallest at the time freestanding structures, measured by pinnacle height&#8217;"><sup>9</sup></a></span></div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Of the 38 trends that we investigated, we found <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1906429870&range=I44">20</a> to contain at least one substantial discontinuity, and <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1906429870&range=K44">15</a> to contain at least one large discontinuity. (Note that our trends were selected for being especially likely to contain discontinuities, so this is something like an upper bound on their frequency in trends in general. However some trends we investigated for fairly limited periods, so these may have contained more discontinuities than we found.) |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Trends we investigated had in expectation <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1906429870&range=I50">2.3</a> discontinuities each, including <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1906429870&range=K50">1</a> large discontinuity each, and <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1906429870&range=M50">0.37</a> large robust discontinuities each (that we found–we did not necessarily investigate trends for the entirety of their history). |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">We found <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1906429870&range=I2">88</a> substantial discontinuities, <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1906429870&range=M2:N2">20</a> of them robust, <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1906429870&range=M2">14</a> of them large and robust. |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">These discontinuities were produced by 63 distinct events, 29 of them producing large discontinuities.</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">The robust large discontinuities were produced by 10 events</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1906429870&range=M45">32%</a> of trends we investigated saw at least one large, robust discontinuity (though note that trends were selected for being discontinuous, and were a very non-uniform collection of topics, so this could at best inform an upper bound on how likely an arbitrary trend is to have a large, robust discontinuity somewhere in a chunk of its history) |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1906429870&range=I45">53%</a> of trends saw any discontinuity (including smaller and non-robust ones), and in expectation a trend saw <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1906429870&range=I50">more than two</a> of these discontinuities. |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">On average, each trend had <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1906429870&range=AG43">0.001</a> large robust discontinuities per year, or <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1906429870&range=AG49">0.002</a> for those trends with at least one at some point<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-10-414"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-10-414" title="Across trends where it seemed reasonable to compare, not e.g. where we only looked at a single development. Also note that this is the average of discontinuity/years ratios across trends, not the number of discontinuities across all trends divided by the number of years across all trends."><sup>10</sup></a></span> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">On average <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1906429870&range=AE43">1.4%</a> of new data points in a trend make for large robust discontinuities, or <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1906429870&range=AE49">4.9%</a> for trends which have one. |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">On average <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1906429870&range=AB43">14%</a> of total progress in a trend came from large robust discontinuities (or <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1906429870&range=AC43">16%</a> of logarithmic progress), or <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1906429870&range=AB49">38%</a> among trends which have at least one. |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Across all years of any metric we considered, the rate of discontinuities/year was around 0.02% (though note that this is heavily influenced by how often you consider thousands of years with poor data at the start).</div></li> |
| | </ul> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Some fuller related data, from <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=330500000&range=C5:G14">spreadsheet</a>:</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr"> |
| | <colgroup> |
| | <col width="100"/> |
| | <col width="100"/> |
| | <col width="100"/> |
| | <col width="100"/> |
| | <col width="100"/> |
| | </colgroup> |
| | <tbody> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td> </td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[37]C[5]" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Discontinuities"}'>All discontinuities</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[37]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Large"}'>Large</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[37]C[6]" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Robust"}'>Robust</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[37]C[6]" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Robust large"}'>Robust large</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Metrics checked"}'>Metrics checked</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[37]C[5]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":38}'>38</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[37]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":38}'>38</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[37]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":38}'>38</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[37]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":38}'>38</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Discontinuities"}'>Discontinuity count</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[42]C[5]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":88}'>88</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[42]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":39}'>39</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[42]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":20}'>20</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[42]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":14}'>14</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Trends exhibiting discontinuity"}'>Trends exhibiting that type of discontinuity</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[36]C[5]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":20}'>20</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[36]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":15}'>15</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[36]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":16}'>16</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[36]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":12}'>12</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Trends with 2+ discontinuities"}'>Trends with 2+ discontinuities of that type</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[37]C[5]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":14}'>14</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[37]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":10}'>10</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[37]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4}'>4</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[37]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2}'>2</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"P(discontinuity|trend)"}'>P(discontinuity|trend)</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[35]C[5]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.5263157894736842}'>0.53</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[35]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.39473684210526316}'>0.39</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[35]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.42105263157894735}'>0.42</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[35]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.3157894736842105}'>0.32</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"E(discontinuities per trend)"}'>E(discontinuities per trend)</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[39]C[5]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2.3157894736842106}'>2.3</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[39]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.0263157894736843}'>1.0</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[39]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.5263157894736842}'>0.5</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[39]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.0",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.3684210526315789}'>0.4</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"P(multiple discontinuities|trend)"}'>P(multiple discontinuities|trend)</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]/R[-6]C[0]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.3684210526315789}'>0.37</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]/R[-6]C[0]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2631578947368421}'>0.26</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]/R[-6]C[0]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.10526315789473684}'>0.11</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]/R[-6]C[0]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.05263157894736842}'>0.05</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"P(multiple discontinuities|trend with at least one)"}'>P(multiple discontinuities|trend with at least one)</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[34]C[5]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7}'>0.70</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[34]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6666666666666666}'>0.67</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[34]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.25}'>0.25</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[34]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.16666666666666666}'>0.17</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"P(multiple discontinuities|trend with at least one, and enough search to find more)"}'>P(multiple discontinuities|trend with at least one, and enough search to find more)</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[34]C[5]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7777777777777778}'>0.78</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[34]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7692307692307693}'>0.77</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[34]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2857142857142857}'>0.29</td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=Metrics!R[34]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2}'>0.20</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | </tbody> |
| | </table> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | == Nature of discontinuous metrics == |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><span style="font-size: inherit;">We categorized each metric as one of:</span></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <ol> |
| | <li><div class="li">‘technical’: to do with basic physical parameters (e.g. light intensity, particle energy in particle accelerators)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">‘product’: to do with usable goods or services (e.g. cotton ginned per person per day, size of largest ships, height of tallest structures)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">‘industry’: to do with an entire industry rather than individual items (e.g. total production of books)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">‘societal’: to do with society at large (e.g. syphilis mortality)</div></li> |
| | </ol> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>We also categorized each metric as one of:</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <ol> |
| | <li><div class="li">‘feature’: a characteristic that is good, but not close to encompassing the purpose of most related efforts (e.g. ship size, light intensity)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">‘performance proxy’: approximates the purpose of the endeavor (e.g. cotton ginned per person per day, effectiveness of syphilis treatment)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">‘value proxy’: approximates the all-things-considered value of the endeavor (e.g. real price of books, cost-effectiveness of explosives)</div></li> |
| | </ol> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Most metrics fell into ‘product feature’ (16) ‘technical feature’ (8) or ‘product performance proxy’ (6), with the rest (8) spread across the categories.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Here is what these trends are like (<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=600317213&range=AC72:AG84">from this spreadsheet</a>):</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-table"> |
| | <table> |
| | <tbody> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td></td> |
| | <td>product feature</td> |
| | <td>technical feature</td> |
| | <td>product performance proxy</td> |
| | <td>rare categories</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td><strong>All discontinuities</strong></td> |
| | <td></td> |
| | <td></td> |
| | <td></td> |
| | <td></td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>number of discontinuities</td> |
| | <td>73</td> |
| | <td>8</td> |
| | <td>2</td> |
| | <td>5</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>number of trends</td> |
| | <td>16</td> |
| | <td>8</td> |
| | <td>6</td> |
| | <td>8</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>number of trends with discontinuities</td> |
| | <td>13</td> |
| | <td>4</td> |
| | <td>2</td> |
| | <td>1</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>discontinuities per trend</td> |
| | <td>4.6</td> |
| | <td>1.0</td> |
| | <td>0.3</td> |
| | <td>0.6</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>fraction of trends with discontinuity</td> |
| | <td>0.81</td> |
| | <td>0.50</td> |
| | <td>0.33</td> |
| | <td>0.13</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td><strong>Large discontinuities</strong></td> |
| | <td></td> |
| | <td></td> |
| | <td></td> |
| | <td></td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>number of large discontinuities</td> |
| | <td>32</td> |
| | <td>3</td> |
| | <td>0</td> |
| | <td>4</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>number of trends</td> |
| | <td>16</td> |
| | <td>8</td> |
| | <td>6</td> |
| | <td>8</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>number of trends with large discontinuities</td> |
| | <td>11</td> |
| | <td>3</td> |
| | <td>0</td> |
| | <td>1</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>large discontinuities per trend</td> |
| | <td>2.0</td> |
| | <td>0.4</td> |
| | <td>0.0</td> |
| | <td>0.5</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>fraction of trends with large discontinuity</td> |
| | <td>0.69</td> |
| | <td>0.38</td> |
| | <td>0.00</td> |
| | <td>0.13</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | </tbody> |
| | </table> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Primary authors: Katja Grace, Rick Korzekwa, Asya Bergal</em>, <em>Daniel Kokotajlo.</em></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Thanks to many other researchers whose work contributed to this project.</em></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><em>Thanks to Stephen Jordan, Jesko Zimmermann, Bren Worth, Finan Adamson, and others for suggesting potential discontinuities for this project in response to our 2015 bounty, and to many others for suggesting potential discontinuities since, especially notably Nuño Sempere, who conducted a detailed independent investigation into discontinuities in ship size and time to circumnavigate the world</em><span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-11-414"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-11-414" title='Nuño Sempere. “Discontinuous Progress in Technological Trends.” Accessed March 8, 2021. <a href="https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html">https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html</a>.'><sup>11</sup></a></span><em>.</em></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | ===== Notes ===== |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <ol class="easy-footnotes-wrapper"> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-1-414"></span>For instance, if the development of advanced AI takes place in the context of a large discontinuity, then it is arguably more likely to involve large shifts in power, to take place sooner than predicted, to be surprising, to be disruptive, and to be dangerous. Also, our research should investigate questions such as how to prepare or be warned, rather than questions like when the present trajectories of AI progress will reach human-level capabilities. See <a href="/doku.php?id=featured_articles:likelihood_of_discontinuous_progress_around_the_development_of_agi">likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI</a> for more discussion.<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-1-414"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-2-414"></span>We thank <a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-2-414"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-3-414"></span>See <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit#gid=1994197408&range=AX:AX">this</a> spreadsheet column for the judgments.<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-3-414"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-4-414"></span>Recall that our trends were selected for being especially likely to contain discontinuities, so this is something like an upper bound on their frequency in trends in general. However some trends we investigated for fairly limited periods, so these may have contained more discontinuities than we found.<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-4-414"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-5-414"></span>Agrawal, Govind P. 2016. “Optical Communication: Its History And Recent Progress”. Optics In Our Time, 177-199. Springer International Publishing. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-31903-2_8., <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-31903-2_8">https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-31903-2_8</a><a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-5-414"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-6-414"></span>Agrawal, Govind P. 2016. “Optical Communication: Its History And Recent Progress”. Optics In Our Time, 177-199. Springer International Publishing. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-31903-2_8., <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-31903-2_8">https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-31903-2_8</a><a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-6-414"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-7-414"></span>From Figure 33 in Division of STD Prevention, “Sexually Transmitted Disease Surveillance 2009,” November 2010, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170120091355/https://www.cdc.gov/std/stats09/surv2009-Complete.pdf">https://web.archive.org/web/20170120091355/https://www.cdc.gov/std/stats09/surv2009-Complete.pdf</a>.<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-7-414"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-8-414"></span>See table 4D in Gregory L. Armstrong, Laura A. Conn, and Robert W. Pinner, “Trends in Infectious Disease Mortality in the United States During the 20th Century,” <em>JAMA</em> 281, no. 1 (January 6, 1999): 61–66, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.281.1.61">https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.281.1.61</a>.<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-8-414"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-9-414"></span>e.g. within the area of ‘structure height’ we investigated ‘all time tallest buildings, measured by architectural height’ and also ‘tallest at the time freestanding structures, measured by pinnacle height’<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-9-414"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-10-414"></span>Across trends where it seemed reasonable to compare, not e.g. where we only looked at a single development. Also note that this is the average of discontinuity/years ratios across trends, not the number of discontinuities across all trends divided by the number of years across all trends.<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-10-414"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-11-414"></span>Nuño Sempere. “Discontinuous Progress in Technological Trends.” Accessed March 8, 2021. <a href="https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html">https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html</a>.<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-11-414"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | </ol> |
| | </HTML> |
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