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ai_timelines:guide_to_pages_on_ai_timeline_predictions [2022/09/21 07:37] (current)
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| | ====== Guide to pages on AI timeline predictions ====== |
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| | // Published 07 April, 2017; last updated 07 October, 2017 // |
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| | <p>This page is an informal outline of the other pages on this site about AI timeline predictions made by others. Headings link to higher level pages, intended to summarize the evidence from pages below them. This list was complete on 7 April 2017 (<a href="http://aiimpacts.org/category/ai-timelines/predictions-of-human-level-ai-timelines/">here</a> is a category that may contain newer entries, though not conveniently organized).</p> |
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| | ===== Guide ===== |
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| | ==== Topic synthesis: AI timeline predictions as evidence (page) ==== |
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| | <blockquote> |
| | <h4><span class="ez-toc-section" id="The_predictions_themselves"><strong>The predictions themselves:</strong></span></h4> |
| | <h5><span class="ez-toc-section" id="from_surveys_page">—from surveys (<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys">page</a></span>):</span></h5> |
| | <ol> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">2016 Expert survey on progress in AI</a>: our own survey. |
| | <ul> |
| | <li><div class="li">(<a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:concrete_ai_tasks_for_forecasting">Concrete tasks</a> that we asked for forecasts on) |
| | </div></li> |
| | </ul> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:muller_and_bostrom_ai_progress_poll">Müller and Bostrom AI Progress Poll</a>: the most recent survey with available results, including 29 of the most cited AI researchers as participants. |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:hanson_ai_expert_survey">Hanson AI Expert Survey</a>: in which researchers judge fractional progress toward human-level performance over their careers, in a series of informal conversations. |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:kruel_ai_interviews">Kruel AI survey</a>: in which experts give forecasts and detailed thoughts, interview style. |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:fhi_winter_intelligence_survey">FHI Winter Intelligence Survey</a>: in which impacts-concerned AGI conference attendees forecast AI in 2011. |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:agi-09_survey">AGI-09 Survey</a>: in which AGI conference attendees forecast various human-levels of AI in 2009. |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:klein_agi_survey">Klein AGI survey</a>: in which a guy with a blog polls his readers. |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai50_survey">AI@50 survey</a>: in which miscellaneous conference goers are polled informally. |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:bainbridge_survey">Bainbridge Survey</a>: in which 26 expert technologists expect human-level AI in 2085 and give it a 5.6/10 rating on benefit to humanity. |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:michie_survey">Michie Survey</a>: in which 67 AI and CS researchers are not especially optimistic in the ‘70s. |
| | </div></li> |
| | </ol> |
| | <h5><span class="ez-toc-section" id="from_public_statements">—from public statements:</span></h5> |
| | <ol> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:miri_ai_predictions_dataset">MIRI AI predictions dataset</a>: a big collection of public predictions gathered from the internet. |
| | </div></li> |
| | </ol> |
| | <h5><span class="ez-toc-section" id="from_written_analyses_page_for_example">—from written analyses (<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:list_of_analyses_of_time_to_human-level_ai">page</a></span>), for example:</span></h5> |
| | <ol> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:kurzweil_the_singularity_is_near">The Singularity is Near</a>: in which a technological singularity is predicted in 2045, based on when hardware is extrapolated to compute radically more than human minds in total. |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:allen_the_singularity_isnt_near">The Singularity Isn’t Near</a>: in which it is countered that human-level AI requires software as well as hardware, and none of the routes to producing software will get there by 2045. |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">(Several others are listed in the <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:list_of_analyses_of_time_to_human-level_ai">analyses</a> page above, but do not have their own summary pages.) |
| | </div></li> |
| | </ol> |
| | </blockquote> |
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| | <blockquote> |
| | <h4><span class="ez-toc-section" id="On_what_to_infer_from_the_predictions"><strong>On what to infer from the predictions</strong></span></h4> |
| | <h5><span class="ez-toc-section" id="Some_considerations_regarding_accuracy_and_bias_page">Some considerations regarding accuracy and bias (<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:interpretation_of_ai_predictions:accuracy_of_ai_predictions:accuracy_of_ai_predictions">page</a></span>):</span></h5> |
| | <ol> |
| | <li><div class="li">Contra a common view that past AI forecasts were unreasonably optimistic, <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:interpretation_of_ai_predictions:accuracy_of_ai_predictions:similarity_between_historical_and_contemporary_ai_predictions">AI predictions look fairly similar over time</a>, except a handful of very early somewhat optimistic ones. |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:interpretation_of_ai_predictions:accuracy_of_ai_predictions:the_maes-garreau_law">The Maes Garreau Law claims that people tend to predict AI near the end of their own expected lifetime. It is not true.</a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">We expect <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:interpretation_of_ai_predictions:accuracy_of_ai_predictions:publication_biases_toward_shorter_predictions">publication biases to favor earlier forecasts</a>. |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:interpretation_of_ai_predictions:accuracy_of_ai_predictions:ai_timeline_predictions_in_surveys_and_statements">Predictions made in surveys seem to be overall a bit later than those made in public statements</a> (maybe because surveys prevent some publication biases). |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">People who are inclined toward optimism about AI are more likely to become AI researchers, leading to a <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:interpretation_of_ai_predictions:accuracy_of_ai_predictions:selection_bias_from_optimistic_experts">selection bias from optimistic experts</a>. |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">We know of some <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:group_differences_in_ai_predictions">differences in forecasts made by different groups</a>. |
| | </div></li> |
| | </ol> |
| | </blockquote> |
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| | <p><strong>Blog posts on these topics:</strong></p> |
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| | <ul> |
| | <li><div class="li"><em><a href="http://aiimpacts.org/a-summary-of-ai-surveys/">A summary of AI surveys</a></em></div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><em><a href="http://aiimpacts.org/michie-and-overoptimism/">Michie and overoptimism</a></em></div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><em><a href="http://aiimpacts.org/are-ai-surveys-seeing-the-inside-view/">Are AI surveys seeing the inside view?</a></em></div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><em><a href="http://aiimpacts.org/update-on-all-the-ai-predictions/">Update on all the AI predictions</a></em></div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><em><a href="http://aiimpacts.org/how-ai-timelines-are-estimated/">How AI timelines are estimated</a></em></div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><em><a href="http://aiimpacts.org/metasurvey-predict-the-predictors/">Metasurvey: predict the predictors</a></em></div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><em><a href="http://aiimpacts.org/concrete-ai-tasks-bleg/">Concrete AI tasks bleg</a></em></div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <em><a href="http://aiimpacts.org/why-do-agi-researchers-expect-ai-so-soon/">Why do AGI researchers expect AI so soon?</a></em><br/> |
| | <hr/> |
| | </div></li> |
| | </ul> |
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