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ai_timelines:historic_trends_in_structure_heights [2022/09/21 07:37] (current)
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| | ====== Historic trends in structure heights ====== |
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| | // Published 12 July, 2018; last updated 23 April, 2020 // |
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| | <p>Trends for tallest ever structure heights, tallest ever freestanding structure heights, tallest existing freestanding structure heights, and tallest ever building heights have each seen 5-8 discontinuities of more than ten years. These are:</p> |
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| | <ul> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>Djoser and Meidum pyramids</strong> (~2600BC, >1000 year discontinuities in all structure trends)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Three cathedrals that were shorter than the all-time record (<strong>Beauvais</strong> <strong>Cathedral</strong> in 1569, <strong>St Nikolai</strong> in 1874, and <strong>Rouen</strong> <strong>Cathedral</strong> in 1876, all >100 year discontinuities in current freestanding structure trend)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>Washington Monument</strong> (1884, >100 year discontinuity in both tallest ever structure trends, but not a notable discontinuity in existing structure trend)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>Eiffel Tower</strong> (1889, ~10,000 year discontinuity in both tallest ever structure trends, 54 year discontinuity in existing structure trend)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Two early skyscrapers: the <strong>Singer Building</strong> and the <strong>Metropolitan Life Tower</strong> (1908 and 1909, each >300 year discontinuities in building height only)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>Empire State Building</strong> (1931, 19 years in all structure trends, 10 years in buildings trend)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>KVLY-TV mast</strong> (1963, 20 year discontinuity in tallest ever structure trend)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>Taipei 101</strong> (2004, 13 year discontinuity in building height only)</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"><strong>Burj Khalifa</strong> (2009, ~30 year discontinuity in both freestanding structure trends, 90 year discontinuity in building height trend)</div></li> |
| | </ul> |
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| | ===== Details ===== |
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| | ==== Background ==== |
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| | <p>Over human history, the tallest man-made structures have included mounds, pyramids, churches, towers, a monument, skyscrapers, and radio and TV masts.</p> |
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| | <p>Height records often distinguish between structures and buildings, where a building is ‘regularly inhabited or occupied’ according to Wikipedia, or is ‘designed for residential, business or manufacturing purposes’ and ‘has floors’ according to the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-1-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-1-1178" title="&#8220;However, though all of these are structures, some are not buildings in the sense of being regularly inhabited or occupied. It is in this sense of being regularly inhabited or occupied that the term &#8220;building&#8221; is generally understood to mean when determining what is the world&#8217;s tallest building. The non-profit international organization Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH), which maintains a set of criteria for determining the height of tall buildings, defines a &#8220;building&#8221; as &#8220;(A) structure that is designed for residential, business or manufacturing purposes&#8221; and &#8220;has floors&#8221;.&#8221; &#8211; &#8220;History Of The World&#8217;s Tallest Buildings&#8221;. 2011.&nbsp;<em>En.Wikipedia.Org</em>. Accessed July 3 2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=History_of_the_world%27s_tallest_buildings&amp;oldid=903623843"><sup>1</sup></a></span> Figure 1a is an illustration from Wikipedia showing the historic relationship between the heights of buildings and structures.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-2-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-2-1178" title="&#8220;History Of The World&#8217;s Tallest Buildings&#8221;. 2011. En.Wikipedia.Org. Accessed July 3 2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=History_of_the_world%27s_tallest_buildings&amp;oldid=903623843"><sup>2</sup></a></span></p> |
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| | <p>Figure 1a: Recent history of tall structures by type.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-3-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-3-1178" title="From Wikimedia Commons:Herostratus [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)]"><sup>3</sup></a></span></p> |
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| | <p>Height records also distinguish ‘freestanding’ structures from other structures. According to Wikipedia, “To be freestanding a structure must not be supported by guy wires, the sea or other types of support. It therefore does not include guyed masts, partially guyed towers and drilling platforms but does include towers, skyscrapers (pinnacle height) and chimneys.”<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-4-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-4-1178" title='“List of Tallest Freestanding Structures.” In <em>Wikipedia</em>, January 22, 2020. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_tallest_freestanding_structures&amp;oldid=937089557">https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_tallest_freestanding_structures&amp;oldid=937089557</a>. <br>'><sup>4</sup></a></span> Definitions vary, for instance Guinness World Records apparently treats underwater structures as ‘freestanding’.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-5-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-5-1178" title='&#8220;The Petronius Platform stands 610 m (2,000 ft) off the sea floor leading some, including Guinness World Records 2007, to claim it as the tallest freestanding structure in the world. However, it is debated whether underwater height should be counted, in the same manner as height below ground is ignored on buildings.&#8221;</p> <p>“List of Tallest Buildings and Structures.” In <em>Wikipedia</em>, February 2, 2020. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_tallest_buildings_and_structures&amp;oldid=938797794">https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_tallest_buildings_and_structures&amp;oldid=938797794</a>.'><sup>5</sup></a></span> We ignore underwater height in general, excluding underwater structures from ‘freestanding’ records and and ‘all structures’ records.<br/> |
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| | The heights of buildings in particular are commonly measured in terms of ‘architectural height’ or ‘height to tip’, which both start at the lowest, significant, open-air, pedestrian entrance, but differ in that ‘to tip’ includes ‘functional-technical equipment’ like antennae, signage or flag poles, while architectural height does not<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-6-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-6-1178" title='Definitions from CTBUH&#8217;s Skyscraper Center: <br><br><strong>Height: Architectural</strong> Height is measured from the level of the lowest, significant, open-air, pedestrian entrance to the architectural top of the building, including spires, but not including antennae, signage, flag poles or other functional-technical equipment. This measurement is the most widely utilized and is employed to define the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH) rankings of the &#8220;World&#8217;s Tallest Buildings.&#8221;<br><br><strong>Height: To Tip</strong> Height is measured from the level of the lowest, significant, open-air, pedestrian entrance to the highest point of the building, irrespective of material or function of the highest element (i.e., including antennae, flagpoles, signage and other functional-technical equipment).</p> <p>“The Skyscraper Center.” Accessed February 3, 2020. <a href="https://www.skyscrapercenter.com/definitions/Building">https://www.skyscrapercenter.com/definitions/Building</a>. '><sup>6</sup></a></span> Our understanding is that ‘pinnacle height’ is the same as ‘height to tip’. There are also several less common measures in use.</p> |
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| | <p>Height records must also distinguish between the tallest structure standing at a given time, and the tallest structure to have ever existed, at that time. The tallest building or structure at a particular time is sometimes not the tallest ever, when the tallest is damaged without anything taller being built. For instance, the tallest structures in the 1700s were shorter than earlier records, because those were church spires which became damaged without replacement (see Figure 1b).</p> |
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| | <p>Figure 1b: An illustration of structure heights over time by location from Wikipedia. <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-7-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-7-1178" title='“History of the World’s Tallest Buildings,” in Wikipedia, July 19, 2019, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=History_of_the_world%27s_tallest_buildings&amp;oldid=906924179">https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=History_of_the_world%27s_tallest_buildings&amp;oldid=906924179</a>.'><sup>7</sup></a></span> (Click to enlarge)</p> |
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| | ==== Trends ==== |
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| | <p>We collected data for several combinations of measurement possibilities mentioned:</p> |
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| | <ul> |
| | <li><div class="li">Tallest ever structures on land (i.e. freestanding or not, but not underwater), measured to tip</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Tallest ever <em>freestanding</em> structures, measured to tip</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Tallest <em>existing</em> freestanding structures, measured to tip</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Tallest ever <em>buildings</em>, measured to architectural height</div></li> |
| | </ul> |
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| | === Tallest ever structure heights === |
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| | == Data == |
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| | <p>We collected height records from numerous Wikipedia lists of tall buildings and structures.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-8-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-8-1178" title="For instance, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_structures_built_before_the_20th_century, https://en.wikipedia.orug/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings_and_structures#Tallest_freestanding_structures_on_land, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_freestanding_structures#Timeline_of_world&#8217;s_tallest_freestanding_structures, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_world%27s_tallest_buildings"><sup>8</sup></a></span> We have not extensively verified these sources, though we made minor adjustments and additions from elsewhere online where sources were inconsistent or records incomplete. Our data is in <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit?usp=sharing">this spreadsheet</a>, sheet ‘Structures collection’. Figure 2 shows this data.</p> |
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| | <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2215" height="371" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Recorded-heights-of-land-structures-all-types-1-1.png" srcset="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Recorded-heights-of-land-structures-all-types-1-1.png 600w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Recorded-heights-of-land-structures-all-types-1-1-300x186.png 300w" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | Figure 2: Our collection of height records for man-made above ground structures, from a variety of online sources (excluding two earlier records). Note that some records are repeated in slightly different versions or are for the same structure being extended, or becoming a record again after the destruction of another structure. The collection is constructed to contain the tallest structures, but the subset of non-tallest structures included is arbitrary. |
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| | <p>We constructed a timeline of tallest ever structures by pinnacle height from the tallest ever records in this dataset (see sheet ‘Structures (all time, pinnacle)’ in <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit?usp=sharing">the spreadsheet</a>). This is shown in figures 3a and 3b below.</p> |
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| | <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2230" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/StructureRecordZoom-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 3a:</strong> Recent history of tallest structures ever built on land (not necessarily freestanding). The record may be taller than any structure standing at a given time. |
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| | <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2234" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/StructureRecord-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 3b:</strong> Longer term history of tallest structures ever built on land (not necessarily freestanding), on a log scale. The record may be taller than any structure standing at a given time. |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
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| | == == |
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| | == Discontinuity measurement == |
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| | <p>We treat this data as exponential initially followed by three linear trends. Using these trends as the previous rate to compare to, we calculated for each record how many years ahead of the trend it was.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-9-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-9-1178" title='See <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/methodology-for-discontinuity-investigation/#trend-fitting"><strong>our methodology page</strong></a> for details on how we choose what to treat as the &#8216;previous trend&#8217; at a given point, and how we calculate discontinuities. See <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit?usp=sharing"><strong>our spreadsheet</strong></a>, sheet &#8216;Structures (all time, pinnacle)&#8217; for the division of our data into different trends and the discontinuity calculations.'><sup>9</sup></a></span> The series contained six unambiguous greater-than-ten-year discontinuities, shown in Table 1 below.</p> |
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| | <p>The Bent Pyramid appears to represent a 12 year discontinuity, but we ignore this because its date of construction seems uncertain relative to the small discontinuity.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-10-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-10-1178" title='The pyramid is around 4600 years old, and for instance, the source we used had 2605 BC as its record date, whereas the pyramid&#8217;s own Wikipedia page gives &#8216;c 2600 BC&#8217; as its date of construction.</p> <p>“Bent Pyramid.” In <em>Wikipedia</em>, December 12, 2019. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Bent_Pyramid&amp;oldid=930419772">https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Bent_Pyramid&amp;oldid=930419772</a>. '><sup>10</sup></a></span></p> |
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| | <p>While our early records are presumably incomplete, we do not avoid measuring early discontinuities for this reason, because the large discontinuities that we find before the 19th Century seem unlikely to depend substantially on the exact set of earlier records.</p> |
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| | <p><strong>Table 1:</strong> discontinuities in tallest ever structure heights</p> |
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| | <figure class="wp-block-table"> |
| | <table class=""> |
| | <tbody> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td><strong>Year</strong></td> |
| | <td><strong>Height (m)</strong></td> |
| | <td><strong>Discontinuity (years)</strong></td> |
| | <td><strong>Structure</strong></td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>2650 BC</td> |
| | <td>62.5</td> |
| | <td>~9000</td> |
| | <td>Pyramid of Djoser</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>2610 BC</td> |
| | <td>91.65</td> |
| | <td>~1000</td> |
| | <td>Meidum Pyramid</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1884</td> |
| | <td>169.3</td> |
| | <td>106</td> |
| | <td>Washington Monument</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1889</td> |
| | <td>300</td> |
| | <td>~10,000</td> |
| | <td>Eiffel Tower</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1931</td> |
| | <td>381</td> |
| | <td>19</td> |
| | <td>Empire State Building</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1963</td> |
| | <td>628.8</td> |
| | <td>20</td> |
| | <td>KVLY-TV mast</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | </tbody> |
| | </table> |
| | </figure> |
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| | <p>A number of other potentially relevant metrics are tabulated <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.</p> |
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| | === Tallest ever freestanding structure heights === |
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| | == Data == |
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| | <p>This data is another subset of the ‘structures collection’ described above, this time including only records for ‘freestanding’ structures. This excludes structures supported by guy ropes, such as radio masts. Guyed masts were the tallest structures on land overall between 1954 and 2008, so this dataset differs from the ‘tallest ever structure heights’ dataset above between those years.</p> |
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| | <p>This dataset can be found in <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit?usp=sharing">this spreadsheet</a>, sheet ‘Freestanding structures (all time, pinnacle)’. Figures 4-5 below illustrate it.</p> |
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| | <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2229" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/RecordFreeZoom-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | Figure 4: Recent history of tallest freestanding structures ever built. |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
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| | <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2233" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/RecordFreestandingStructure-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | Figure 5: Longer term history of tallest freestanding structures ever built, on a log scale. |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | == Discontinuity measurement == |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>We treat this data as exponential initially followed by three linear trends. Using these trends as the previous rate to compare to, we calculated for each record how many years ahead of the trend it was.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-11-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-11-1178" title='See <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/methodology-for-discontinuity-investigation/#trend-fitting"><strong>our methodology page</strong></a> for details on how we choose what to treat as the &#8216;previous trend&#8217; at a given point, and how we calculate discontinuities. See <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit?usp=sharing"><strong>our spreadsheet</strong></a>, sheet &#8216;Freestanding structures (all time, pinnacle)<strong>&#8216;</strong> for the division of our data into different trends and the discontinuity calculations.'><sup>11</sup></a></span> The series contained six unambiguous greater-than-ten-year discontinuities. The first five are the same as those in the previous dataset, since the series do not diverge until later (see <em>Tallest ever structure heights</em> section above for further details). The last discontinuity is a 32 year jump in 2009 from the Burj Khalifa.</p> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>We tabulated a number of other potentially relevant metrics <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.</p> |
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| | === Tallest existing freestanding structure heights === |
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| | <p>We constructed a dataset of tallest freestanding structures over time largely from Wikipedia’s Timeline of world’s tallest freestanding structures<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-12-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-12-1178" title=' “List of Tallest Freestanding Structures.” In <em>Wikipedia</em>, January 22, 2020. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_tallest_freestanding_structures&amp;oldid=937089557">https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_tallest_freestanding_structures&amp;oldid=937089557</a>. '><sup>12</sup></a></span>, with some modifications. This is available in <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit?usp=sharing">our spreadsheet</a>, sheet ‘Freestanding structures (current, pinnacle)’, and is shown in Figures 6-7 below.</p> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2231" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/CurrentFreeZoom-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | <strong>Figure 6:</strong> Recent history of tallest freestanding structures standing. New records are sometimes shorter than old records. |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
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| | <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2235" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/CurrentFreestandingStructure-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | Figure 7: Longer term history of tallest freestanding structures standing, on a log scale. New records are sometimes shorter than old records. |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | == Discontinuity measurement == |
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| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>We treat this data as exponential initially, followed by four linear trends. Using these trends as the ‘previous rate’ to compare to,<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-13-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-13-1178" title='See <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/methodology-for-discontinuity-investigation/#trend-fitting"><strong>our methodology page</strong></a> for details on how we choose what to treat as the &#8216;previous trend&#8217; at a given point. See <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit?usp=sharing"><strong>our spreadsheet,</strong></a> sheet &#8216;Freestanding structures (current, pinnacle)&#8217; for the trends.'><sup>13</sup></a></span> the data contained eight unambiguous greater than ten year discontinuities, shown in Table 2 below.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-14-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-14-1178" title='We again ignore the Bent Pyramid, because the apparent discontinuity is small relative to uncertainty about its date of construction. See <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/methodology-for-discontinuity-investigation/"><strong>our methodology page</strong></a> for explanation of how we calculated discontinuities. Also see <strong><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit?usp=sharing">our spreadsheet</a></strong>, sheet &#8216;Freestanding structures (current, pinnacle)&#8217; for these calculations.'><sup>14</sup></a></span></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>This series differs from that of all-time tallest freestanding structures above by the insertion of a series of records between Lincoln Cathedral in 1311 and the Washington Monument in 1889. This change made the Washington Monument unexceptional rather than a 100 year discontinuity, and the Eiffel Tower a fifty-year discontinuity rather than a ten-thousand year one. Later discontinuities from the Empire State Building and Burj Khalifa are very similar.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Table 2: discontinuities in tallest existing freestanding structures</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-table"> |
| | <table class=""> |
| | <tbody> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td><strong>Year</strong></td> |
| | <td><strong>Height (m)</strong></td> |
| | <td><strong>Discontinuity (years)</strong></td> |
| | <td><strong>Structure</strong></td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>2650 BC</td> |
| | <td>62.5</td> |
| | <td>~9000</td> |
| | <td>Pyramid of Djoser</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>2610 BC</td> |
| | <td>91.65</td> |
| | <td>~1000</td> |
| | <td>Meidum Pyramid</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1569</td> |
| | <td>153</td> |
| | <td>138</td> |
| | <td>Beauvais Cathedral</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1874</td> |
| | <td>147.3</td> |
| | <td>224</td> |
| | <td>St Nikolai</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1876</td> |
| | <td>151</td> |
| | <td>307</td> |
| | <td>Rouen Cathedral</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1889</td> |
| | <td>300</td> |
| | <td>54</td> |
| | <td>Eiffel Tower</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1931</td> |
| | <td>381</td> |
| | <td>19</td> |
| | <td>Empire State Building</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>2009</td> |
| | <td>829.8</td> |
| | <td>35</td> |
| | <td>Burj Khalifa</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | </tbody> |
| | </table> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>We have tabulated a number of other potentially relevant metrics <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-15-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-15-1178" title='See our <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/methodology-for-discontinuity-investigation/#discontinuity-data"><strong>our methodology page</strong></a> for more details.'><sup>15</sup></a></span></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | === Tallest ever building heights === |
| | |
| | |
| | == Data == |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>We collected data on the tallest ever buildings from Wikipedia’s <em>History of the world’s tallest buildings</em>,<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-16-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-16-1178" title="&#8220;History Of The World&#8217;s Tallest Buildings&#8221;. 2011.&nbsp;<em>En.Wikipedia.Org</em>. Accessed May 26 2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_world%27s_tallest_buildings."><sup>16</sup></a></span> and added it to <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit?usp=sharing">this spreadsheet</a> (sheet ‘Buildings (all time, architectural)’). We have not thoroughly verified it, but have made minor modifications (noted in the spreadsheet). Figure 8 shows this data.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2236" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/TallestBuilding-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | Figure 8: Height of tallest buildings ever built, measured using ‘architectural height’, which excludes some additions such as antennae. |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2232" height="450" loading="lazy" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/TallestBuildingZoom-1024x768.png" width="600"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | Figure 9: Close up of Figure 8 |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | == Discontinuity measurement == |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>We treated this data as an exponential trend followed by a linear trend.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-17-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-17-1178" title='See <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/methodology-for-discontinuity-investigation/#trend-fitting"><strong>our methodology page</strong></a> for details on how we decide what to treat as the past trend for each point.'><sup>17</sup></a></span> Compared to previous rates within these trends, tallest buildings over time contained five greater than ten year discontinuities, shown in Table 3 below.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-18-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-18-1178" title='See <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/methodology-for-discontinuity-investigation/"><strong>our methodology page</strong></a> for explanation of how we calculated these numbers. See <strong><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit?usp=sharing">our spreadsheet</a></strong>, sheet &#8216;Buildings (all time, architectural)&#8217; for these calculations.'><sup>18</sup></a></span></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p><strong>Table 3:</strong> discontinuities in tallest ever building heights</p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-table"> |
| | <table class=""> |
| | <tbody> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td><strong>Year</strong></td> |
| | <td><strong>Height (m)</strong></td> |
| | <td><strong>Discontinuity (years)</strong></td> |
| | <td><strong>Building</strong></td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1908</td> |
| | <td>186.57</td> |
| | <td>383</td> |
| | <td>Singer Building</td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1909</td> |
| | <td>213.36</td> |
| | <td>320</td> |
| | <td> |
| | <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_Life_Insurance_Company_Tower" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Metropolitan Life Tower</a> |
| | </td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>1931</td> |
| | <td>381</td> |
| | <td>10</td> |
| | <td> |
| | <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empire_State_Building" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Empire State Building</a> |
| | </td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>2004</td> |
| | <td>509.2</td> |
| | <td>13</td> |
| | <td> |
| | <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taipei_101" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Taipei 101</a> |
| | </td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td>2010</td> |
| | <td>828</td> |
| | <td>90</td> |
| | <td> |
| | <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burj_Khalifa" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Burj Khalifa</a> |
| | </td> |
| | </tr> |
| | </tbody> |
| | </table> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <p>We have tabulated a number of other potentially relevant metrics <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iMIZ57Ka9-ZYednnGeonC-NqwGC7dKiHN9S-TAxfVdQ/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-19-1178"></span><span class="easy-footnote"><a href="#easy-footnote-bottom-19-1178" title='See <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/methodology-for-discontinuity-investigation/#discontinuity-data"><strong>our methodology page</strong></a> for more details.'><sup>19</sup></a></span></p> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"> |
| | <img alt="" class="wp-image-2221" height="751" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 578px) 100vw, 578px" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/alex-azabache-9ZChTzDtCww-unsplash-787x1024.jpg" srcset="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/alex-azabache-9ZChTzDtCww-unsplash-787x1024.jpg 787w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/alex-azabache-9ZChTzDtCww-unsplash-231x300.jpg 231w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/alex-azabache-9ZChTzDtCww-unsplash-768x999.jpg 768w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/alex-azabache-9ZChTzDtCww-unsplash-1180x1536.jpg 1180w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/alex-azabache-9ZChTzDtCww-unsplash-1574x2048.jpg 1574w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/alex-azabache-9ZChTzDtCww-unsplash-scaled.jpg 1967w" width="578"/> |
| | <figcaption> |
| | Figure 10: Burj Khalifa, current record holder for every listed metric, and discontinuously tall freestanding structure and building. |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
| | |
| | |
| | ===== Notes ===== |
| | |
| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <ol class="easy-footnotes-wrapper"> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-1-1178"></span>“However, though all of these are structures, some are not buildings in the sense of being regularly inhabited or occupied. It is in this sense of being regularly inhabited or occupied that the term “building” is generally understood to mean when determining what is the world’s tallest building. The non-profit international organization Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH), which maintains a set of criteria for determining the height of tall buildings, defines a “building” as “(A) structure that is designed for residential, business or manufacturing purposes” and “has floors”.” – “History Of The World’s Tallest Buildings”. 2011. <em>En.Wikipedia.Org</em>. Accessed July 3 2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=History_of_the_world%27s_tallest_buildings&oldid=903623843<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-1-1178"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-2-1178"></span>“History Of The World’s Tallest Buildings”. 2011. En.Wikipedia.Org. Accessed July 3 2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=History_of_the_world%27s_tallest_buildings&oldid=903623843<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-2-1178"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-3-1178"></span>From Wikimedia Commons:Herostratus [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)]<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-3-1178"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-4-1178"></span>“List of Tallest Freestanding Structures.” In <em>Wikipedia</em>, January 22, 2020. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_tallest_freestanding_structures&oldid=937089557">https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_tallest_freestanding_structures&oldid=937089557</a>.<br/> |
| | <a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-4-1178"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-5-1178"></span>“The Petronius Platform stands 610 m (2,000 ft) off the sea floor leading some, including Guinness World Records 2007, to claim it as the tallest freestanding structure in the world. However, it is debated whether underwater height should be counted, in the same manner as height below ground is ignored on buildings.” |
| | <p>“List of Tallest Buildings and Structures.” In <em>Wikipedia</em>, February 2, 2020. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_tallest_buildings_and_structures&oldid=938797794">https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_tallest_buildings_and_structures&oldid=938797794</a>.<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-5-1178"></a></p> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-6-1178"></span>Definitions from CTBUH’s Skyscraper Center:<br/> |
| | <br/> |
| | <strong>Height: Architectural</strong> Height is measured from the level of the lowest, significant, open-air, pedestrian entrance to the architectural top of the building, including spires, but not including antennae, signage, flag poles or other functional-technical equipment. This measurement is the most widely utilized and is employed to define the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH) rankings of the “World’s Tallest Buildings.”<br/> |
| | <br/> |
| | <strong>Height: To Tip</strong> Height is measured from the level of the lowest, significant, open-air, pedestrian entrance to the highest point of the building, irrespective of material or function of the highest element (i.e., including antennae, flagpoles, signage and other functional-technical equipment). |
| | <p>“The Skyscraper Center.” Accessed February 3, 2020. <a href="https://www.skyscrapercenter.com/definitions/Building">https://www.skyscrapercenter.com/definitions/Building</a>. <a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-6-1178"></a></p> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-7-1178"></span>“History of the World’s Tallest Buildings,” in Wikipedia, July 19, 2019, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=History_of_the_world%27s_tallest_buildings&oldid=906924179">https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=History_of_the_world%27s_tallest_buildings&oldid=906924179</a>.<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-7-1178"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-8-1178"></span>For instance, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_structures_built_before_the_20th_century, https://en.wikipedia.orug/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings_and_structures#Tallest_freestanding_structures_on_land, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_freestanding_structures#Timeline_of_world’s_tallest_freestanding_structures, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_world%27s_tallest_buildings<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-8-1178"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-9-1178"></span>See <a href="/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:pace_of_ai_progress_without_feedback:historical_continuity_of_progress:methodology_for_discontinuous_progress_investigation#trend-fitting"><strong>our methodology page</strong></a> for details on how we choose what to treat as the ‘previous trend’ at a given point, and how we calculate discontinuities. See <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit?usp=sharing"><strong>our spreadsheet</strong></a>, sheet ‘Structures (all time, pinnacle)’ for the division of our data into different trends and the discontinuity calculations.<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-9-1178"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-10-1178"></span>The pyramid is around 4600 years old, and for instance, the source we used had 2605 BC as its record date, whereas the pyramid’s own Wikipedia page gives ‘c 2600 BC’ as its date of construction. |
| | <p>“Bent Pyramid.” In <em>Wikipedia</em>, December 12, 2019. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Bent_Pyramid&oldid=930419772">https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Bent_Pyramid&oldid=930419772</a>. <a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-10-1178"></a></p> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-11-1178"></span>See <a href="/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:pace_of_ai_progress_without_feedback:historical_continuity_of_progress:methodology_for_discontinuous_progress_investigation#trend-fitting"><strong>our methodology page</strong></a> for details on how we choose what to treat as the ‘previous trend’ at a given point, and how we calculate discontinuities. See <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit?usp=sharing"><strong>our spreadsheet</strong></a>, sheet ‘Freestanding structures (all time, pinnacle)<strong>‘</strong> for the division of our data into different trends and the discontinuity calculations.<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-11-1178"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-12-1178"></span> “List of Tallest Freestanding Structures.” In <em>Wikipedia</em>, January 22, 2020. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_tallest_freestanding_structures&oldid=937089557">https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_tallest_freestanding_structures&oldid=937089557</a>. <a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-12-1178"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-13-1178"></span>See <a href="/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:pace_of_ai_progress_without_feedback:historical_continuity_of_progress:methodology_for_discontinuous_progress_investigation#trend-fitting"><strong>our methodology page</strong></a> for details on how we choose what to treat as the ‘previous trend’ at a given point. See <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit?usp=sharing"><strong>our spreadsheet,</strong></a> sheet ‘Freestanding structures (current, pinnacle)’ for the trends.<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-13-1178"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-14-1178"></span>We again ignore the Bent Pyramid, because the apparent discontinuity is small relative to uncertainty about its date of construction. See <a href="/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:pace_of_ai_progress_without_feedback:historical_continuity_of_progress:methodology_for_discontinuous_progress_investigation"><strong>our methodology page</strong></a> for explanation of how we calculated discontinuities. Also see <strong><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit?usp=sharing">our spreadsheet</a></strong>, sheet ‘Freestanding structures (current, pinnacle)’ for these calculations.<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-14-1178"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-15-1178"></span>See our <a href="/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:pace_of_ai_progress_without_feedback:historical_continuity_of_progress:methodology_for_discontinuous_progress_investigation#discontinuity-data"><strong>our methodology page</strong></a> for more details.<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-15-1178"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-16-1178"></span>“History Of The World’s Tallest Buildings”. 2011. <em>En.Wikipedia.Org</em>. Accessed May 26 2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_world%27s_tallest_buildings.<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-16-1178"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-17-1178"></span>See <a href="/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:pace_of_ai_progress_without_feedback:historical_continuity_of_progress:methodology_for_discontinuous_progress_investigation#trend-fitting"><strong>our methodology page</strong></a> for details on how we decide what to treat as the past trend for each point.<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-17-1178"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-18-1178"></span>See <a href="/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:pace_of_ai_progress_without_feedback:historical_continuity_of_progress:methodology_for_discontinuous_progress_investigation"><strong>our methodology page</strong></a> for explanation of how we calculated these numbers. See <strong><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit?usp=sharing">our spreadsheet</a></strong>, sheet ‘Buildings (all time, architectural)’ for these calculations.<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-18-1178"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li"> |
| | <span class="easy-footnote-margin-adjust" id="easy-footnote-bottom-19-1178"></span>See <a href="/doku.php?id=speed_of_ai_transition:pace_of_ai_progress_without_feedback:historical_continuity_of_progress:methodology_for_discontinuous_progress_investigation#discontinuity-data"><strong>our methodology page</strong></a> for more details.<a class="easy-footnote-to-top" href="#easy-footnote-19-1178"></a> |
| | </div></li> |
| | </ol> |
| | </HTML> |
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