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--- arguments_for_ai_risk:views_of_ai_developers_on_risk_from_ai [2023/05/26 15:28]
katjagrace
+++ arguments_for_ai_risk:views_of_ai_developers_on_risk_from_ai [2024/03/09 18:18] (current)
katjagrace [Geoffrey Hinton, 2018 Turing Award recipient]
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 ====== Views of prominent AI developers on risk from AI ======
+//This page is in an early draft. It is incomplete and may contain errors.//
 People who have worked on creating artificial intelligence have a variety of views on risk from AI, both for the potential benefits and potential downsides.
@@ Line 118: / Line 120: @@
 ==== Geoffrey Hinton, 2018 Turing Award recipient ====
-> I think there are two existential threats that are much bigger than AI. One is global nuclear war, and the other is [synthetic biology]. I think that's what people should be worried about, not ultra-intelligent systems.
+>If I were advising governments, I would say that there’s a 10 per cent chance these things will wipe out humanity in the next 20 years. I think that would be a reasonable number
+//Financial Times [[https://www.ft.com/content/c64592ac-a62f-4e8e-b99b-08c869c83f4b|interview]], Feb 2024//
+> There's a serious danger that we'll get things smarter than us fairly soon and that these things might get bad motives and take control
+//NPR [[https://www.npr.org/2023/05/28/1178673070/the-godfather-of-ai-sounds-alarm-about-potential-dangers-of-ai|interview]], May 2023//
+>My big worry is, sooner or later someone will wire into them the ability to create their own subgoals... I think it’ll very quickly realize that getting more control is a very good subgoal because it helps you achieve other goals... And if these things get carried away with getting more control, we’re in trouble.
-> I hope the rewards [of AI] will outweigh the downsides, but I don't know whether they will, and that's an issue of social systems, not with the technology.
+>And if [AI models] are much smarter than us, they’ll be very good at manipulating us. You won’t realize what’s going on... So even if they can’t directly pull levers, they can certainly get us to pull levers. It turns out if you can manipulate people, you can invade a building in Washington without ever going there yourself.
-//[[https://www.google.com/books/edition/_/e4d7DwAAQBAJ|Architects of Intelligence]] pp 96-97, Martin Ford, 2018//
+//[[https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/05/03/1072589/video-geoffrey-hinton-google-ai-risk-ethics/|EmTech Digital 2023]], May 2023//
 ==== Yann LeCun, Meta, Chief AI Scientist, 2018 Turing Award recipient ====

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