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responses_to_ai:public_opinion_on_ai:surveys_of_public_opinion_on_ai:surveys_of_us_public_opinion_on_ai [2023/09/12 19:26]
zachsteinperlman [Other surveys] |
responses_to_ai:public_opinion_on_ai:surveys_of_public_opinion_on_ai:surveys_of_us_public_opinion_on_ai [2024/01/29 22:32] (current)
harlanstewart |
| | /* |
| | EDITOR NOTES (publicly accessible) |
| | |
| | -Harlan: this page needs work. Need to add details to some of the items at the end of the list, and update the discussion part after the list |
| | */ |
| ====== Surveys of US public opinion on AI ====== | ====== Surveys of US public opinion on AI ====== |
| |
| //Published 30 November 2022; last updated 12 September 2023// | //Published 30 November 2022; last updated 9 January 2024// |
| |
| We are aware of 34 high-quality surveys of the American public's beliefs and attitudes on the future capabilities and outcomes of AI or policy responses. Methodologies, questions, and responses vary. | We are aware of 45 high-quality surveys of the American public's beliefs and attitudes on the future capabilities and outcomes of AI or policy responses. Methodologies, questions, and responses vary. |
| |
| ===== Details ===== | ===== Details ===== |
| * 66% agree with a pro-antitrust message, 23% agree with an anti-antitrust message. | * 66% agree with a pro-antitrust message, 23% agree with an anti-antitrust message. |
| * "A law that requires companies to be transparent about the data they use to train their AI": 79% support, 11% oppose (after reading a pro-transparency description). | * "A law that requires companies to be transparent about the data they use to train their AI": 79% support, 11% oppose (after reading a pro-transparency description). |
| * YouGov ([[https://today.yougov.com/topics/technology/survey-results/daily/2023/04/03/ad825/1|1]], [[https://today.yougov.com/topics/technology/survey-results/daily/2023/04/03/ad825/2|2]], [[https://today.yougov.com/topics/technology/survey-results/daily/2023/04/03/ad825/3|3]]) (Apr 3, 2023) (online survey, 20810 responses) (see also YouGov's follow-up, [[https://today.yougov.com/topics/technology/articles-reports/2023/04/14/ai-nuclear-weapons-world-war-humanity-poll|AI and the End of Humanity]]) | * YouGov ([[https://today.yougov.com/topics/technology/survey-results/daily/2023/04/03/ad825/1|1]], [[https://today.yougov.com/topics/technology/survey-results/daily/2023/04/03/ad825/2|2]], [[https://today.yougov.com/topics/technology/survey-results/daily/2023/04/03/ad825/3|3]]) (Apr 3, 2023) (online survey, 20810 responses) |
| * 6% say AI is more intelligent than people, 57% AI is likely to eventually become smarter, 23% not likely. | * 6% say AI is more intelligent than people, 57% AI is likely to eventually become smarter, 23% not likely. |
| * 69% support "a six-month pause on some kinds of AI development"; 13% oppose (but they were asked after reading a pro-pause message). | * 69% support "a six-month pause on some kinds of AI development"; 13% oppose (but they were asked after reading a pro-pause message). |
| * AI causing human extinction: 46% concerned, 40% not. | * AI causing human extinction: 46% concerned, 40% not. |
| | * [[https://today.yougov.com/topics/technology/articles-reports/2023/04/14/ai-nuclear-weapons-world-war-humanity-poll|AI and the End of Humanity]] (Apr 11, 2023) (online survey of citizens, 1000 responses) (this is a follow-up to the previous survey with some modified questions) |
| | * AI causing human extinction: 46% concerned, 47% not. |
| | * A six-month pause on some kinds of AI development: 58% support, 23% oppose. |
| * [[https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ConFiY9cRmg37fs2p/us-public-opinion-of-ai-policy-and-risk|Rethink Priorities: US public opinion of AI policy and risk]] (Apr 14, 2023) (online survey, 2444 responses) (note that Rethink Priorities may have an agenda and whether it releases a survey may depend on its results) | * [[https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ConFiY9cRmg37fs2p/us-public-opinion-of-ai-policy-and-risk|Rethink Priorities: US public opinion of AI policy and risk]] (Apr 14, 2023) (online survey, 2444 responses) (note that Rethink Priorities may have an agenda and whether it releases a survey may depend on its results) |
| * Pause on AI research: 51% support, 25% oppose (after reading pro- and anti- messages). | * Pause on AI research: 51% support, 25% oppose (after reading pro- and anti- messages). |
| * 15% "trust the groups and companies developing AI systems to do so responsibly," 83% don't trust. | * 15% "trust the groups and companies developing AI systems to do so responsibly," 83% don't trust. |
| * 27% "trust the federal government to regulate AI," 72% don't trust. | * 27% "trust the federal government to regulate AI," 72% don't trust. |
| * [[https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/HHP_July2023_KeyResults.pdf#page=59|Harvard CAPS / Harris]] (Jul 20, 2023) (online survey, 2068 responses) | * [[https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/HHP_July2023_KeyResults.pdf#page=59|Harvard CAPS / Harris]] (Jul 20, 2023) (online survey of registered voters, 2068 responses) |
| * 70% AI will bring a new revolution in technology; 30% it will not make much difference. | * 70% AI will bring a new revolution in technology; 30% it will not make much difference. |
| * 74% AI can be dangerous; 26% fears are overblown. | * 74% AI can be dangerous; 26% fears are overblown. |
| * 37% AI will add jobs, 63% destroy jobs. | * 37% AI will add jobs, 63% destroy jobs. |
| * Regulation: 79% we need more, 21% less. | * Regulation: 79% we need more, 21% less. |
| * AI Policy Institute / YouGov ([[https://theaipi.org/poll-shows-overwhelming-concern-about-risks-from-ai-as-new-institute-launches-to-understand-public-opinion-and-advocate-for-responsible-ai-policies/|1]], [[https://theaipi.org/poll-shows-voters-want-rules-on-deep-fakes-international-standards-and-other-ai-safeguards/|2]]) (Jul 21, 2023) (online survey, 1001 responses) (note that the AI Policy Institute is a pro-caution advocacy organization) | * AI Policy Institute / YouGov ([[https://theaipi.org/poll-shows-overwhelming-concern-about-risks-from-ai-as-new-institute-launches-to-understand-public-opinion-and-advocate-for-responsible-ai-policies/|1]], [[https://theaipi.org/poll-shows-voters-want-rules-on-deep-fakes-international-standards-and-other-ai-safeguards/|2]]) (Jul 21, 2023) (online survey of voters, 1001 responses) (note that the AI Policy Institute is a pro-caution advocacy organization) |
| * 21% excited, 62% concerned, 16% neutral. | * 21% excited, 62% concerned, 16% neutral. |
| * A federal agency regulating the use of artificial intelligence: 56% support, 14% oppose. | * A federal agency regulating the use of artificial intelligence: 56% support, 14% oppose. |
| * Types of AI that first come to mind are robots (20%), text generation tools (13%), chatbots (10%), and virtual personal assistants (9%). | * Types of AI that first come to mind are robots (20%), text generation tools (13%), chatbots (10%), and virtual personal assistants (9%). |
| * Effects of AI on society: 20% positive, 27% equally positive and negative, 37% negative. | * Effects of AI on society: 20% positive, 27% equally positive and negative, 37% negative. |
| | * [[https://theaipi.org/poll-shows-voters-oppose-open-sourcing-ai-models-support-regulatory-representation-on-boards-and-say-ai-risks-outweigh-benefits/|AI Policy Institute / YouGov Blue]] (Sep 6, 2023) (online survey of voters, 1118 responses) (note that the AI Policy Institute is a pro-caution advocacy organization) |
| | * 23% "we should open source powerful AI models," 47% we should not (after reading brief arguments). |
| | * 71% prefer caution to reduce risks, 29% prefer avoiding too much caution to see benefits. |
| | * [[https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/531jxljmmg/Concerns%20about%20AI_poll_results.pdf|YouGov]] (Aug 27, 2023) (online survey of citizens, 1000 responses) |
| | * Effects of AI on society: 15% positive, 40% negative, 29% equally positive and negative. |
| | * Biggest concern is "The spread of misleading video and audio deep fakes" (85% concerned). |
| | * AI should be much more regulated (52%), be somewhat more regulated (26%), have no change in regulation (6%), be somewhat less regulated (1%), be much less regulated (2%). |
| | * A six-month pause on some kinds of AI development: 36% strongly support, 22% somewhat support, 11% somewhat oppose, 8% strongly oppose (similar to April and June). |
| | * [[https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1701973967303565753|Data for Progress]] (Sep 9, 2023) (online survey of likely voters, 1191 responses) (note that Data for Progress may have an agenda and whether it releases a survey may depend on its results) |
| | * 12% AI will increase jobs in the US, 60% decrease, 13% no effect. |
| | * "Creating a dedicated federal agency to regulate AI": 62% support, 27% oppose (after reading a neutral description) (identical to their results from March). |
| | * [[https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/510635/three-four-americans-believe-reduce-jobs.aspx|Gallup]] (Sep 13, 2023) (online survey, 5458 responses) |
| | * [[https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/9/19/23879648/americans-artificial-general-intelligence-ai-policy-poll|Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute]] (Sep, 2023) (Online poll, 1118 responses) |
| | * [[https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/9/19/23879648/americans-artificial-general-intelligence-ai-policy-poll|American Psychological Association]] (Sep, 2023) (online poll, 2515 responses) |
| | * [[https://www.sentienceinstitute.org/aims-survey-2023|Sentience Institute]] (Sep, 2023) (1169 responses) |
| | * [[https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/international-survey-of-public-opinion-on-ai-safety|Deltapoll]] (Oct 27, 2023) (online survey, 1126 US responses) |
| | * [[https://static1.squarespace.com/static/631d02b2dfa9482a32db47ec/t/6556228ccd929249f767a65c/1700143757657/Participatory+AI+Risk+Prioritization+%7C+CIP.pdf|Collective Intelligence Project]] (Oct, 2023) (online survey, 1000 responses) |
| | * [[https://theaipi.org/poll-biden-ai-executive-order-10-30/|Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute]] (Oct, 2023) (1132 US registered voters) |
| |
| //The rest of this page up to "Demographic analysis" is quite out of date.// | //The rest of this page up to "Demographic analysis" is quite out of date.// |
| ==== Open questions ==== | ==== Open questions ==== |
| |
| An important aspect of public opinion mostly neglected by these surveys is the applications and issues that come to mind when people hear "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." (For example, [[https://blumbergcapital.com/ai-in-2019/|perhaps]] Americans who hear "artificial intelligence" mostly just think about robots and self-driving cars.) Plausible candidates include robots, self-driving cars, automation, facial recognition, "data" & surveillance & privacy, "algorithms" & bias, social media recommender systems, autonomous weapons, and cyberattacks. See also GovAI 2018's section on [[https://governanceai.github.io/US-Public-Opinion-Report-Jan-2019/public-opinion-on-ai-governance.html#subsecgovchallenges13|AI governance challenges]] for what respondents say about given issues. Separately from specific AI applications, Americans may care about who creates or controls AI systems; the future of work; and whether AI systems have consciousness, common sense, "real" intelligence, etc. | An important aspect of public opinion mostly neglected by these surveys is the applications and issues that come to mind when people hear "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." (For example, [[https://web.archive.org/web/20230207112738/https://blumbergcapital.com/ai-in-2019/|perhaps]] Americans who hear "artificial intelligence" mostly just think about robots and self-driving cars.) Plausible candidates include robots, self-driving cars, automation, facial recognition, "data" & surveillance & privacy, "algorithms" & bias, social media recommender systems, autonomous weapons, and cyberattacks. See also GovAI 2018's section on [[https://governanceai.github.io/US-Public-Opinion-Report-Jan-2019/public-opinion-on-ai-governance.html#subsecgovchallenges13|AI governance challenges]] for what respondents say about given issues. Separately from specific AI applications, Americans may care about who creates or controls AI systems; the future of work; and whether AI systems have consciousness, common sense, "real" intelligence, etc. |
| |
| ==== Demographic analysis ==== | ==== Demographic analysis ==== |
| |
| |
| Some surveys are nominally about AI but are not focused on respondents' beliefs and attitudes on AI, including [[https://www.brookings.edu/blog/techtank/2018/08/29/brookings-survey-finds-divided-views-on-artificial-intelligence-for-warfare-but-support-rises-if-adversaries-are-developing-it/|Brookings]] (2018c), Northeastern/Gallup's [[https://www.northeastern.edu/gallup/pdf/Northeastern_Gallup_AI_2019.pdf|Facing the Future]] (2019), and Pew's [[https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2023/04/20/ai-in-hiring-and-evaluating-workers-what-americans-think/|AI in Hiring and Evaluating Workers]] and [[https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/24/a-majority-of-americans-have-heard-of-chatgpt-but-few-have-tried-it-themselves/|A majority of Americans have heard of ChatGPT, but few have tried it themselves]] (2023). There are also various surveys about automation which are mostly irrelevant to AI, such as Pew's [[https://www.pewinternet.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2017/10/PI_2017.10.04_Automation_FINAL.pdf|Automation in Everyday Life]] (2017). | Some surveys are nominally about AI but are not focused on respondents' beliefs and attitudes on AI, including [[https://www.brookings.edu/blog/techtank/2018/08/29/brookings-survey-finds-divided-views-on-artificial-intelligence-for-warfare-but-support-rises-if-adversaries-are-developing-it/|Brookings]] (2018c), Northeastern/Gallup's [[https://www.northeastern.edu/gallup/pdf/Northeastern_Gallup_AI_2019.pdf|Facing the Future]] (2019), and Pew's [[https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2023/04/20/ai-in-hiring-and-evaluating-workers-what-americans-think/|AI in Hiring and Evaluating Workers]] and [[https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/24/a-majority-of-americans-have-heard-of-chatgpt-but-few-have-tried-it-themselves/|A majority of Americans have heard of ChatGPT, but few have tried it themselves]] (2023). There are also various surveys about automation which are mostly irrelevant to AI, such as Pew's [[https://www.pewinternet.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2017/10/PI_2017.10.04_Automation_FINAL.pdf|Automation in Everyday Life]] (2017) and Gallup's [[https://news.gallup.com/poll/510551/workers-fear-technology-making-jobs-obsolete.aspx|More U.S. Workers Fear Technology Making Their Jobs Obsolete]] (2023). |
| |
| On the history of AI in the mass media, see [[https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/AAAI/article/view/10635|Fast and Horvitz 2017]], [[https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00146-020-00965-5|Ouchchy et al. 2020]], [[https://www.aies-conference.com/2019/wp-content/papers/main/AIES-19_paper_162.pdf|Chuan et al. 2019]], and [[http://39.103.203.133/pubs/2021/03/11/e4acd4b6-2d1c-4f0d-bba0-ddec00606d76.pdf|Zhai et al. 2020]]. | On the history of AI in the mass media, see [[https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/AAAI/article/view/10635|Fast and Horvitz 2017]], [[https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00146-020-00965-5|Ouchchy et al. 2020]], [[https://www.aies-conference.com/2019/wp-content/papers/main/AIES-19_paper_162.pdf|Chuan et al. 2019]], and [[http://39.103.203.133/pubs/2021/03/11/e4acd4b6-2d1c-4f0d-bba0-ddec00606d76.pdf|Zhai et al. 2020]]. |
| |
| We are uncertain about the quality of [[https://assets.website-files.com/59c269cb7333f20001b0e7c4/59db4483aaa78100013fa85a_Sex_lies_and_AI-SYZYGY-Digital_Insight_Report_2017_US.pdf|SYZYGY 2017]], [[https://blumbergcapital.com/ai-in-2019/|Blumberg Capital 2019]], [[https://jasonjones.ninja/jones-skiena-public-opinion-of-ai/|Jones-Skiena 2020--2022]], and Campaign for AI Safety ([[https://www.campaignforaisafety.org/public-opinion/|2023a]], [[https://www.campaignforaisafety.org/usa-ai-x-risk-perception-tracker/| 2023b]]) (note that Campaign for AI Safety is a pro-caution advocacy organization). | We are uncertain about the quality of [[https://assets.website-files.com/59c269cb7333f20001b0e7c4/59db4483aaa78100013fa85a_Sex_lies_and_AI-SYZYGY-Digital_Insight_Report_2017_US.pdf|SYZYGY 2017]], [[https://web.archive.org/web/20230207112738/https://blumbergcapital.com/ai-in-2019/|Blumberg Capital 2019]], [[https://jasonjones.ninja/jones-skiena-public-opinion-of-ai/|Jones-Skiena 2020--2022]], and Campaign for AI Safety ([[https://www.campaignforaisafety.org/public-opinion/|2023a]], [[https://www.campaignforaisafety.org/usa-ai-x-risk-perception-tracker/| 2023b]]) (note that Campaign for AI Safety is a pro-caution advocacy organization). |
| |
| //Author: Zach Stein-Perlman// | //Author: Zach Stein-Perlman// |
