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responses_to_ai:public_opinion_on_ai:surveys_of_public_opinion_on_ai:surveys_of_us_public_opinion_on_ai [2023/09/14 19:20]
zachsteinperlman |
responses_to_ai:public_opinion_on_ai:surveys_of_public_opinion_on_ai:surveys_of_us_public_opinion_on_ai [2024/01/29 22:32] (current)
harlanstewart |
| | /* |
| | EDITOR NOTES (publicly accessible) |
| | |
| | -Harlan: this page needs work. Need to add details to some of the items at the end of the list, and update the discussion part after the list |
| | */ |
| ====== Surveys of US public opinion on AI ====== | ====== Surveys of US public opinion on AI ====== |
| |
| //Published 30 November 2022; last updated 14 September 2023// | //Published 30 November 2022; last updated 9 January 2024// |
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| We are aware of 37 high-quality surveys of the American public's beliefs and attitudes on the future capabilities and outcomes of AI or policy responses. Methodologies, questions, and responses vary. | We are aware of 45 high-quality surveys of the American public's beliefs and attitudes on the future capabilities and outcomes of AI or policy responses. Methodologies, questions, and responses vary. |
| |
| ===== Details ===== | ===== Details ===== |
| * 23% "we should open source powerful AI models," 47% we should not (after reading brief arguments). | * 23% "we should open source powerful AI models," 47% we should not (after reading brief arguments). |
| * 71% prefer caution to reduce risks, 29% prefer avoiding too much caution to see benefits. | * 71% prefer caution to reduce risks, 29% prefer avoiding too much caution to see benefits. |
| | * [[https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/531jxljmmg/Concerns%20about%20AI_poll_results.pdf|YouGov]] (Aug 27, 2023) (online survey of citizens, 1000 responses) |
| | * Effects of AI on society: 15% positive, 40% negative, 29% equally positive and negative. |
| | * Biggest concern is "The spread of misleading video and audio deep fakes" (85% concerned). |
| | * AI should be much more regulated (52%), be somewhat more regulated (26%), have no change in regulation (6%), be somewhat less regulated (1%), be much less regulated (2%). |
| | * A six-month pause on some kinds of AI development: 36% strongly support, 22% somewhat support, 11% somewhat oppose, 8% strongly oppose (similar to April and June). |
| * [[https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1701973967303565753|Data for Progress]] (Sep 9, 2023) (online survey of likely voters, 1191 responses) (note that Data for Progress may have an agenda and whether it releases a survey may depend on its results) | * [[https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1701973967303565753|Data for Progress]] (Sep 9, 2023) (online survey of likely voters, 1191 responses) (note that Data for Progress may have an agenda and whether it releases a survey may depend on its results) |
| * 12% AI will increase jobs in the US, 60% decrease, 13% no effect. | * 12% AI will increase jobs in the US, 60% decrease, 13% no effect. |
| * "Creating a dedicated federal agency to regulate AI": 62% support, 27% oppose (after reading a neutral description) (identical to their results from March). | * "Creating a dedicated federal agency to regulate AI": 62% support, 27% oppose (after reading a neutral description) (identical to their results from March). |
| | * [[https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/510635/three-four-americans-believe-reduce-jobs.aspx|Gallup]] (Sep 13, 2023) (online survey, 5458 responses) |
| | * [[https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/9/19/23879648/americans-artificial-general-intelligence-ai-policy-poll|Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute]] (Sep, 2023) (Online poll, 1118 responses) |
| | * [[https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/9/19/23879648/americans-artificial-general-intelligence-ai-policy-poll|American Psychological Association]] (Sep, 2023) (online poll, 2515 responses) |
| | * [[https://www.sentienceinstitute.org/aims-survey-2023|Sentience Institute]] (Sep, 2023) (1169 responses) |
| | * [[https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/international-survey-of-public-opinion-on-ai-safety|Deltapoll]] (Oct 27, 2023) (online survey, 1126 US responses) |
| | * [[https://static1.squarespace.com/static/631d02b2dfa9482a32db47ec/t/6556228ccd929249f767a65c/1700143757657/Participatory+AI+Risk+Prioritization+%7C+CIP.pdf|Collective Intelligence Project]] (Oct, 2023) (online survey, 1000 responses) |
| | * [[https://theaipi.org/poll-biden-ai-executive-order-10-30/|Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute]] (Oct, 2023) (1132 US registered voters) |
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| //The rest of this page up to "Demographic analysis" is quite out of date.// | //The rest of this page up to "Demographic analysis" is quite out of date.// |
| ==== Open questions ==== | ==== Open questions ==== |
| |
| An important aspect of public opinion mostly neglected by these surveys is the applications and issues that come to mind when people hear "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." (For example, [[https://blumbergcapital.com/ai-in-2019/|perhaps]] Americans who hear "artificial intelligence" mostly just think about robots and self-driving cars.) Plausible candidates include robots, self-driving cars, automation, facial recognition, "data" & surveillance & privacy, "algorithms" & bias, social media recommender systems, autonomous weapons, and cyberattacks. See also GovAI 2018's section on [[https://governanceai.github.io/US-Public-Opinion-Report-Jan-2019/public-opinion-on-ai-governance.html#subsecgovchallenges13|AI governance challenges]] for what respondents say about given issues. Separately from specific AI applications, Americans may care about who creates or controls AI systems; the future of work; and whether AI systems have consciousness, common sense, "real" intelligence, etc. | An important aspect of public opinion mostly neglected by these surveys is the applications and issues that come to mind when people hear "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." (For example, [[https://web.archive.org/web/20230207112738/https://blumbergcapital.com/ai-in-2019/|perhaps]] Americans who hear "artificial intelligence" mostly just think about robots and self-driving cars.) Plausible candidates include robots, self-driving cars, automation, facial recognition, "data" & surveillance & privacy, "algorithms" & bias, social media recommender systems, autonomous weapons, and cyberattacks. See also GovAI 2018's section on [[https://governanceai.github.io/US-Public-Opinion-Report-Jan-2019/public-opinion-on-ai-governance.html#subsecgovchallenges13|AI governance challenges]] for what respondents say about given issues. Separately from specific AI applications, Americans may care about who creates or controls AI systems; the future of work; and whether AI systems have consciousness, common sense, "real" intelligence, etc. |
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| ==== Demographic analysis ==== | ==== Demographic analysis ==== |
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| |
| Some surveys are nominally about AI but are not focused on respondents' beliefs and attitudes on AI, including [[https://www.brookings.edu/blog/techtank/2018/08/29/brookings-survey-finds-divided-views-on-artificial-intelligence-for-warfare-but-support-rises-if-adversaries-are-developing-it/|Brookings]] (2018c), Northeastern/Gallup's [[https://www.northeastern.edu/gallup/pdf/Northeastern_Gallup_AI_2019.pdf|Facing the Future]] (2019), and Pew's [[https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2023/04/20/ai-in-hiring-and-evaluating-workers-what-americans-think/|AI in Hiring and Evaluating Workers]] and [[https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/24/a-majority-of-americans-have-heard-of-chatgpt-but-few-have-tried-it-themselves/|A majority of Americans have heard of ChatGPT, but few have tried it themselves]] (2023). There are also various surveys about automation which are mostly irrelevant to AI, such as Pew's [[https://www.pewinternet.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2017/10/PI_2017.10.04_Automation_FINAL.pdf|Automation in Everyday Life]] (2017). | Some surveys are nominally about AI but are not focused on respondents' beliefs and attitudes on AI, including [[https://www.brookings.edu/blog/techtank/2018/08/29/brookings-survey-finds-divided-views-on-artificial-intelligence-for-warfare-but-support-rises-if-adversaries-are-developing-it/|Brookings]] (2018c), Northeastern/Gallup's [[https://www.northeastern.edu/gallup/pdf/Northeastern_Gallup_AI_2019.pdf|Facing the Future]] (2019), and Pew's [[https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2023/04/20/ai-in-hiring-and-evaluating-workers-what-americans-think/|AI in Hiring and Evaluating Workers]] and [[https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/24/a-majority-of-americans-have-heard-of-chatgpt-but-few-have-tried-it-themselves/|A majority of Americans have heard of ChatGPT, but few have tried it themselves]] (2023). There are also various surveys about automation which are mostly irrelevant to AI, such as Pew's [[https://www.pewinternet.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2017/10/PI_2017.10.04_Automation_FINAL.pdf|Automation in Everyday Life]] (2017) and Gallup's [[https://news.gallup.com/poll/510551/workers-fear-technology-making-jobs-obsolete.aspx|More U.S. Workers Fear Technology Making Their Jobs Obsolete]] (2023). |
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| On the history of AI in the mass media, see [[https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/AAAI/article/view/10635|Fast and Horvitz 2017]], [[https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00146-020-00965-5|Ouchchy et al. 2020]], [[https://www.aies-conference.com/2019/wp-content/papers/main/AIES-19_paper_162.pdf|Chuan et al. 2019]], and [[http://39.103.203.133/pubs/2021/03/11/e4acd4b6-2d1c-4f0d-bba0-ddec00606d76.pdf|Zhai et al. 2020]]. | On the history of AI in the mass media, see [[https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/AAAI/article/view/10635|Fast and Horvitz 2017]], [[https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00146-020-00965-5|Ouchchy et al. 2020]], [[https://www.aies-conference.com/2019/wp-content/papers/main/AIES-19_paper_162.pdf|Chuan et al. 2019]], and [[http://39.103.203.133/pubs/2021/03/11/e4acd4b6-2d1c-4f0d-bba0-ddec00606d76.pdf|Zhai et al. 2020]]. |
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| We are uncertain about the quality of [[https://assets.website-files.com/59c269cb7333f20001b0e7c4/59db4483aaa78100013fa85a_Sex_lies_and_AI-SYZYGY-Digital_Insight_Report_2017_US.pdf|SYZYGY 2017]], [[https://blumbergcapital.com/ai-in-2019/|Blumberg Capital 2019]], [[https://jasonjones.ninja/jones-skiena-public-opinion-of-ai/|Jones-Skiena 2020--2022]], and Campaign for AI Safety ([[https://www.campaignforaisafety.org/public-opinion/|2023a]], [[https://www.campaignforaisafety.org/usa-ai-x-risk-perception-tracker/| 2023b]]) (note that Campaign for AI Safety is a pro-caution advocacy organization). | We are uncertain about the quality of [[https://assets.website-files.com/59c269cb7333f20001b0e7c4/59db4483aaa78100013fa85a_Sex_lies_and_AI-SYZYGY-Digital_Insight_Report_2017_US.pdf|SYZYGY 2017]], [[https://web.archive.org/web/20230207112738/https://blumbergcapital.com/ai-in-2019/|Blumberg Capital 2019]], [[https://jasonjones.ninja/jones-skiena-public-opinion-of-ai/|Jones-Skiena 2020--2022]], and Campaign for AI Safety ([[https://www.campaignforaisafety.org/public-opinion/|2023a]], [[https://www.campaignforaisafety.org/usa-ai-x-risk-perception-tracker/| 2023b]]) (note that Campaign for AI Safety is a pro-caution advocacy organization). |
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| //Author: Zach Stein-Perlman// | //Author: Zach Stein-Perlman// |
