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responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:geoengineering [2023/04/04 00:48] jeffreyheninger |
responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:geoengineering [2023/10/12 21:44] (current) 68.252.234.79 ↷ Links adapted because of a move operation |
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//Published 30 March, 2023. Last updated 30 March, 2023.// | //Published 30 March, 2023. Last updated 30 March, 2023.// | ||
- | Stratospheric aerosol injection could stop or reverse global warming with direct costs of \$1-10 billion per year. The total global | + | Stratospheric aerosol injection could stop or reverse global warming with direct costs of \$1-10 billion per year, compared to global |
Large countries do not implement geoengineering because not enough research has been done to know that the risks are small. Geoengineering research is prevented by a majority of climate scientists' | Large countries do not implement geoengineering because not enough research has been done to know that the risks are small. Geoengineering research is prevented by a majority of climate scientists' | ||
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* **Coastal Cities.** Coastal cities are at a high risk of flooding due to sea level rise. // | * **Coastal Cities.** Coastal cities are at a high risk of flooding due to sea level rise. // | ||
- | * **Private Oil Companies.** The annual profit of the largest oil companies is \$10-25 billion. // | + | * **Private Oil Companies.** The annual profit of the largest oil companies is \$10-25 billion. // |
* **Individuals.** The largest private fortunes are \$100-250 billion. There does not seem to be a clear incentive for an individual to pursue geoengineering. //Stakes:// The net benefit is likely negative. | * **Individuals.** The largest private fortunes are \$100-250 billion. There does not seem to be a clear incentive for an individual to pursue geoengineering. //Stakes:// The net benefit is likely negative. | ||
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The efforts against geoengineering have operated on three levels: in published papers, in outdoor experiments, | The efforts against geoengineering have operated on three levels: in published papers, in outdoor experiments, | ||
- | Prior to 2006, there was a taboo against publishing scientific papers about geoengineering. Crutzen, an editor of the journal Climate Change, broke this taboo and people began to consider geoengineering to be a legitimate object of scientific inquiry.((Crutzen. //Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution to Resolve a Policy Dilemma?// Climate Change **77**. (2006) p. 211-219. [[https:// | + | Prior to 2006, there was a taboo against publishing scientific papers about geoengineering. Crutzen, an editor of the journal |
Currently, no outdoor experiments for stratospheric aerosol injection are being done. Since 2010, there have been two attempts at doing these outdoor experiments, | Currently, no outdoor experiments for stratospheric aerosol injection are being done. Since 2010, there have been two attempts at doing these outdoor experiments, | ||
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The body of the paper aggregates the beliefs of scientists at the IPCC and negotiators at the Paris Climate Accords. The disaggregated information comes from Supplementary Table 2(c): | The body of the paper aggregates the beliefs of scientists at the IPCC and negotiators at the Paris Climate Accords. The disaggregated information comes from Supplementary Table 2(c): | ||
[[https:// | [[https:// | ||
- | * When geoengineering experiments are proposed, certain environmental groups((Especially the ETC Group and the Friends of Earth.)) rally to oppose them. These environmental groups work with indigenous groups, when possible, to convince advisory committees and governments to not allow the research to proceed. | + | * When geoengineering experiments are proposed, certain environmental groups((Especially the ETC Group and the Friends of the Earth.)) rally to oppose them. These environmental groups work with indigenous groups, when possible, to convince advisory committees and governments to not allow the research to proceed. |
No country or international consortium has attempted to implement geoengineering. Two of the most common arguments against it, found in both scientific and policy papers, | No country or international consortium has attempted to implement geoengineering. Two of the most common arguments against it, found in both scientific and policy papers, | ||
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There are several important differences between geoengineering and AI: | There are several important differences between geoengineering and AI: | ||
* There is a clear understanding of what it would take to do geoengineering.((Smith & Wagner. // | * There is a clear understanding of what it would take to do geoengineering.((Smith & Wagner. // | ||
- | * Getting climate wrong may pose devastating risks, but it is less likely to pose an existential risk than getting AI wrong. | + | * Getting climate wrong may pose devastating risks, but it is less likely to pose an existential risk than getting AI wrong.((Toby Ord estimated the existential risk from climate this century to be 1/1000, and the existential risk from AI this century to be 1/10 in //The Precipice// |
- | * Most climate scientists seem to be more opposed to geoengineering research than most AI researchers are to research that causes progress towards human-level AI.((Toby Ord estimated the existential risk from climate this century to be 1/1000, and the existential risk from AI this century to be 1/10 in //The Precipice// | + | * Most climate scientists seem to be more opposed to geoengineering research than most AI researchers are to research that causes progress towards human-level AI. |
There are also some important similarities: | There are also some important similarities: | ||
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* An individual actor could implement something with global consequences. | * An individual actor could implement something with global consequences. | ||
* Current governance is unclear or non-existent. | * Current governance is unclear or non-existent. | ||
- | * The cost of building AGI seems likely to be large enough to make it infeasible for some actors, but not so large that it can only be pursued by the largest countries. | + | * The cost of building AGI seems likely to be large enough to limit the number of actors, but not so large that it can only be pursued by the largest countries. |
* Technological progress and economic growth could make it easier for more actors to implement it, although aircraft prices are not falling as quickly as computer prices. | * Technological progress and economic growth could make it easier for more actors to implement it, although aircraft prices are not falling as quickly as computer prices. | ||