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--- responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:geoengineering [2023/04/04 18:46]
jeffreyheninger
+++ responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:geoengineering [2023/10/12 21:44] (current)
68.252.234.79 ↷ Links adapted because of a move operation
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 //Published 30 March, 2023. Last updated 30 March, 2023.//
-Stratospheric aerosol injection could stop or reverse global warming with direct costs of \$1-10 billion per year. The total global benefit from this would be roughly \$1-10 trillion per year by mid-century. Individual large countries seem to estimate the value of preventing climate change(( In this page, 'global warming' specifically refers to changes in the global average temperature, while 'climate change' refers to all of the human-caused changes to the climate. For example, ocean acidification would be climate change but not global warming. Most of the effects of climate change are mediated by the average temperature, so there is less than a factor of two difference between the costs of climate change and the costs of global warming. This does not significantly affect order of magnitude estimates.)) to be at least tens of billions of dollars per year.
+Stratospheric aerosol injection could stop or reverse global warming with direct costs of \$1-10 billion per year, compared to global benefits of roughly \$1-10 trillion per year by mid-century and at least tens of billions of dollars per year for large countries.
 Large countries do not implement geoengineering because not enough research has been done to know that the risks are small. Geoengineering research is prevented by a majority of climate scientists' opposition, which makes it harder to get funding, and by certain environmental groups that advocate against specific experiments.
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   * **Coastal Cities.** Coastal cities are at a high risk of flooding due to sea level rise. //Benefits:// The flood losses of some individual coastal cities would be greater than the cost of geoengineering if no other mitigation were done. //Alternatives:// For an individual city, building levees and dikes costs a similar amount or less than geoengineering. //Stakes:// The net benefits would likely be less than the net benefits of an alternative.
-  * **Private Oil Companies.** The annual profit of the largest oil companies is \$10-25 billion. //Benefits:// Their market might be eliminated by other efforts to prevent climate change. Some oil companies have been willing to spend tens of millions of dollars per year on climate denial (not enough for geoengineering) and some have been willing to spend a few billion dollars per year on green investments (maybe enough for geoengineering). //Additional Barriers:// Oil companies might face backlash if they started doing geoengineering and lose access to some of their important markets. //Stakes:// The net benefits seem marginal, so it is not surprising that other factors dominate.
+  * **Private Oil Companies.** The annual profit of the largest oil companies is \$10-25 billion. //Benefits:// Their market might be eliminated by other efforts to prevent climate change. To roughly estimate the scale of the value of avoiding these costs, we can look at what they are willing to pay to avoid them. Some oil companies have been willing to spend tens of millions of dollars per year on climate denial (not enough for geoengineering) and some have been willing to spend a few billion dollars per year on green investments (maybe enough for geoengineering). //Additional Barriers:// Oil companies might face backlash if they started doing geoengineering and lose access to some of their important markets. //Stakes:// The net benefits seem marginal, so it is not surprising that other factors dominate.
   * **Individuals.** The largest private fortunes are \$100-250 billion. There does not seem to be a clear incentive for an individual to pursue geoengineering. //Stakes:// The net benefit is likely negative.

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