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--- responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:geoengineering [2023/04/05 21:15]
jeffreyheninger
+++ responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:geoengineering [2023/10/12 21:44] (current)
68.252.234.79 ↷ Links adapted because of a move operation
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   * **Coastal Cities.** Coastal cities are at a high risk of flooding due to sea level rise. //Benefits:// The flood losses of some individual coastal cities would be greater than the cost of geoengineering if no other mitigation were done. //Alternatives:// For an individual city, building levees and dikes costs a similar amount or less than geoengineering. //Stakes:// The net benefits would likely be less than the net benefits of an alternative.
-  * **Private Oil Companies.** The annual profit of the largest oil companies is \$10-25 billion. //Benefits:// Their market might be eliminated by other efforts to prevent climate change. Some oil companies have been willing to spend tens of millions of dollars per year on climate denial (not enough for geoengineering) and some have been willing to spend a few billion dollars per year on green investments (maybe enough for geoengineering). //Additional Barriers:// Oil companies might face backlash if they started doing geoengineering and lose access to some of their important markets. //Stakes:// The net benefits seem marginal, so it is not surprising that other factors dominate.
+  * **Private Oil Companies.** The annual profit of the largest oil companies is \$10-25 billion. //Benefits:// Their market might be eliminated by other efforts to prevent climate change. To roughly estimate the scale of the value of avoiding these costs, we can look at what they are willing to pay to avoid them. Some oil companies have been willing to spend tens of millions of dollars per year on climate denial (not enough for geoengineering) and some have been willing to spend a few billion dollars per year on green investments (maybe enough for geoengineering). //Additional Barriers:// Oil companies might face backlash if they started doing geoengineering and lose access to some of their important markets. //Stakes:// The net benefits seem marginal, so it is not surprising that other factors dominate.
   * **Individuals.** The largest private fortunes are \$100-250 billion. There does not seem to be a clear incentive for an individual to pursue geoengineering. //Stakes:// The net benefit is likely negative.

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