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responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:start [2023/03/12 22:51]
katjagrace [Notable failures of rational action or foresight in pursuing technologies]
responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:start [2023/10/12 17:56]
jeffreyheninger ↷ Page moved and renamed from responses_to_ai:resisted_technological_temptations:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued to responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:start
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 These are cases where incentives to pursue a technology were overcome by concerns about downsides not imminently accruing to the decision-maker (e.g. risks to distant people, ethical concerns). These cases are being collected via the [[responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:resisted_technological_temptations_project|Resisted Technological Temptations Project]]. These are cases where incentives to pursue a technology were overcome by concerns about downsides not imminently accruing to the decision-maker (e.g. risks to distant people, ethical concerns). These cases are being collected via the [[responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:resisted_technological_temptations_project|Resisted Technological Temptations Project]].
 +
 +=== Investigated cases ===
 +
 +^ Technology ^ Key Actors ^ Value Resisted ^ Time Period ^ Explanation ^
 +| [[responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:geoengineering|Geoengineering]] | Global Organizations, Large Countries | \$10<sup>12</sup>-10<sup>13</sup>/yr by mid-century | 1974((Geoengineering proposed.)) / 2006((Scientific taboo broken.)) to Present | Scientists' and environmental groups' opposition inhibit experiments needed before implementation |
 +| [[responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:nuclear_power|Nuclear power]] | Some Countries | \$10<sup>9</sup>-10<sup>10</sup>/yr and 10<sup>3</sup>-10<sup>4</sup> lives/yr | 1964((Bodega Bay Power Plant canceled in US.)) / 1987((Italian nuclear referendum.)) / 2011((Germany decides to shut down nuclear power plants.)) to Present | Political decisions important; local opposition grows to national movement; warning shots |
 +| [[responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:vaccine_challenge_trials|Vaccine challenge trials]] | Pharmaceutical Companies, IRBs | \$10<sup>12</sup>-10<sup>13</sup> and 10<sup>5</sup>-10<sup>6</sup> lives lost for COVID-19 | 1974((National Research Act created IRBs)) to Present | Asymmetric justice for IRBs slows medical research |
  
 === Plausible cases === === Plausible cases ===
-This is a non-exhaustive list of plausible cases. Inclusion on this list does not imply any degree of confidence. +This is a non-exhaustive list of plausible cases that we have not investigated
-  * Geoengineering, many actors, present, scientist opposition inhibits research needed for others' enthusiasm+
   * Chlorofluorocarbons, many actors, 1985-present   * Chlorofluorocarbons, many actors, 1985-present
   * Nanotechnology, scientists and governments, five decades ago to present   * Nanotechnology, scientists and governments, five decades ago to present
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   * Genetic engineering of humans   * Genetic engineering of humans
   * Some scientific studies prevented by the burden of IRB / GDPR compliance   * Some scientific studies prevented by the burden of IRB / GDPR compliance
-  * Human challenge trials, especially for covid vaccines 
   * Recreational drug development   * Recreational drug development
   * Dietary restrictions, in most (all?) human cultures   * Dietary restrictions, in most (all?) human cultures
   * GMOs, in some countries   * GMOs, in some countries
   * Atomic gardening   * Atomic gardening
-  * Nuclear power, in some countries 
   * Use of nuclear explosions in construction   * Use of nuclear explosions in construction
   * Fracking, in some countries   * Fracking, in some countries
   * Various weapons (nuclear, chemical, biological, land mines, etc), in some countries and at some times   * Various weapons (nuclear, chemical, biological, land mines, etc), in some countries and at some times
  
-=== Investigated cases === 
- 
-  * //(To be added)// 
  
 ==== Other notable failures of selfish expected value maximization in pursuing technologies ==== ==== Other notable failures of selfish expected value maximization in pursuing technologies ====
  
 === Plausible cases === === Plausible cases ===
 +(We have not investigated these cases)
 +
   * AI winters   * AI winters
   * Delay in nuclear weapons research early in WWII   * Delay in nuclear weapons research early in WWII
   * Excalibur   * Excalibur
  
-=== Investigated cases === 
  
-  * //(To be added)// 
  
  
  
responses_to_ai/technological_inevitability/incentivized_technologies_not_pursued/start.txt · Last modified: 2023/10/23 17:19 by jeffreyheninger