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responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:start [2022/11/15 06:50]
katjagrace created
responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:start [2023/10/23 17:19] (current)
jeffreyheninger Atomic gardening was apparently more common than I thought
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 These are cases where incentives to pursue a technology were overcome by concerns about downsides not imminently accruing to the decision-maker (e.g. risks to distant people, ethical concerns). These cases are being collected via the [[responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:resisted_technological_temptations_project|Resisted Technological Temptations Project]]. These are cases where incentives to pursue a technology were overcome by concerns about downsides not imminently accruing to the decision-maker (e.g. risks to distant people, ethical concerns). These cases are being collected via the [[responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:resisted_technological_temptations_project|Resisted Technological Temptations Project]].
 +
 +=== Investigated cases ===
 +
 +^ Technology ^ Key Actors ^ Value Resisted ^ Time Period ^ Explanation ^
 +| [[responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:geoengineering|Geoengineering]] | Global Organizations, Large Countries | \$10<sup>12</sup>-10<sup>13</sup>/yr by mid-century | 1974((Geoengineering proposed.)) / 2006((Scientific taboo broken.)) to Present | Scientists' and environmental groups' opposition inhibit experiments needed before implementation |
 +| [[responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:nuclear_power|Nuclear power]] | Some Countries | \$10<sup>9</sup>-10<sup>10</sup>/yr and 10<sup>3</sup>-10<sup>4</sup> lives/yr | 1964((Bodega Bay Power Plant canceled in US.)) / 1987((Italian nuclear referendum.)) / 2011((Germany decides to shut down nuclear power plants.)) to Present | Political decisions important; local opposition grows to national movement; warning shots |
 +| [[responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:vaccine_challenge_trials|Vaccine challenge trials]] | Pharmaceutical Companies, IRBs | \$10<sup>12</sup>-10<sup>13</sup> and 10<sup>5</sup>-10<sup>6</sup> lives lost for COVID-19 | 1974((National Research Act created IRBs)) to Present | Asymmetric justice for IRBs slows medical research |
  
 === Plausible cases === === Plausible cases ===
-This is a non-exhaustive list of plausible cases. Inclusion on this list does not imply any degree of confidence+This is a non-exhaustive list of plausible cases that we have not investigated.  
-  * Geoengineering, many actors, present, scientist opposition inhibits research needed for others' enthusiasm+  * Chlorofluorocarbons, many actors, 1985-present
   * Nanotechnology, scientists and governments, five decades ago to present   * Nanotechnology, scientists and governments, five decades ago to present
 +  * Airships / Zeppelins 
   * Genetic engineering of humans   * Genetic engineering of humans
 +  * Some scientific studies prevented by the burden of IRB / GDPR compliance
 +  * Recreational drug development
 +  * Dietary restrictions, in most (all?) human cultures
 +  * GMOs, in some countries
 +  * Use of nuclear explosions in construction
 +  * Fracking, in some countries
 +  * Various weapons (nuclear, chemical, biological, land mines, etc), in some countries and at some times
  
-=== Investigated cases === 
  
-  * //(To be added)// +==== Other notable failures of selfish expected value maximization in pursuing technologies ====
- +
-==== Other notable failures of rational action or foresight in pursuing technologies ====+
  
 === Plausible cases === === Plausible cases ===
 +(We have not investigated these cases)
 +
   * AI winters   * AI winters
   * Delay in nuclear weapons research early in WWII   * Delay in nuclear weapons research early in WWII
 +  * Excalibur
  
-=== Investigated cases === 
  
-  * //(To be added)// 
  
  
  
responses_to_ai/technological_inevitability/incentivized_technologies_not_pursued/start.1668495030.txt.gz · Last modified: 2022/11/15 06:50 by katjagrace