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speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_performance_range_in_chess [2022/11/02 18:43]
rickkorzekwa |
speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_performance_range_in_chess [2022/11/02 19:02] (current)
rickkorzekwa |
| We could not find transparent sources for low computer chess Elo records, but it seems common to place Elo scores of 800-1200 in the 1950s and 1960s. In his book Robot (1999)((Moravec, Hans. Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind, n.d., p71, also at https://frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/book97/ch3/index.html)), Moravec gives the diagram shown in Figure 1, which puts a machine with an Elo of around 800 in 1957. He does not appear to provide a source for this however. Figure 2 shows another figure without sources from a 2002 article by L. Stephen Coles at Dr. Dobbs ((“Computer Chess: The Drosophila of AI | Dr Dobb’s.” Accessed October 13, 2020. https://www.drdobbs.com/parallel/computer-chess-the-drosophila-of-ai/184405171?pgno=2. p2)), which puts some machine at over 1000 in around 1950. To err on the side of assuming narrow human ranges, and because Moravec appears to be a more reliable source, we use his data here. This means that machine chess performance entered the human range in 1957 at the latest. | We could not find transparent sources for low computer chess Elo records, but it seems common to place Elo scores of 800-1200 in the 1950s and 1960s. In his book Robot (1999)((Moravec, Hans. Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind, n.d., p71, also at https://frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/book97/ch3/index.html)), Moravec gives the diagram shown in Figure 1, which puts a machine with an Elo of around 800 in 1957. He does not appear to provide a source for this however. Figure 2 shows another figure without sources from a 2002 article by L. Stephen Coles at Dr. Dobbs ((“Computer Chess: The Drosophila of AI | Dr Dobb’s.” Accessed October 13, 2020. https://www.drdobbs.com/parallel/computer-chess-the-drosophila-of-ai/184405171?pgno=2. p2)), which puts some machine at over 1000 in around 1950. To err on the side of assuming narrow human ranges, and because Moravec appears to be a more reliable source, we use his data here. This means that machine chess performance entered the human range in 1957 at the latest. |
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| [{{:speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:chess.plot.150.jpg?600|Figure 1: Graph from Moravec, 1999((Moravec, Hans. Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind, n.d., p71, also at https://frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/book97/ch3/index.html)). We did not find Moravec’s sources for these numbers.}}] | [{{:speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:chess.plot.150.jpg?600|Figure 1: Graph from Moravec, 1999((Moravec, Hans. Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind, n.d., p71, also at https://frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/book97/ch3/index.html)). We did not find Moravec’s sources for these numbers.}}]\\ |
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| [{{:speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:chess_progress_source_unknown.gif?600|Figure 2: Chess AI progress compared to human performance, from Coles 2002((“Computer Chess: The Drosophila of AI | Dr Dobb’s.” Accessed October 13, 2020. https://www.drdobbs.com/parallel/computer-chess-the-drosophila-of-ai/184405171?pgno=2. p2)). The image appears to confusingly claim that the present time is around 1993, in which case the right of the graph (after ‘now’) must be imagined, though it appears to be approximately correct.}}] | [{{:speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:chess_progress_source_unknown.gif?600|Figure 2: Chess AI progress compared to human performance, from Coles 2002((“Computer Chess: The Drosophila of AI | Dr Dobb’s.” Accessed October 13, 2020. https://www.drdobbs.com/parallel/computer-chess-the-drosophila-of-ai/184405171?pgno=2. p2)). The image appears to confusingly claim that the present time is around 1993, in which case the right of the graph (after ‘now’) must be imagined, though it appears to be approximately correct.}}] |
