AI Impacts 2020 review

Primary authors: Katja Grace, Richard Korzekwa, Asya Bergal, Daniel Kokotajlo
Main page: Discontinuous progress investigation
Blog post: Discontinuous progress in history: an update

Other pages added in 2020: Effect of AlexNet on historic trends in image recognition, Historic trends in transatlantic message speed, Historic trends in long-range military payload delivery, Historic trends in bridge span length, Historic trends in light intensity, Historic trends in book production, Historic trends in telecommunications performance, Historic trends in slow light technology, Penicillin and historic syphilis trends, Historic trends in the maximum superconducting temperature, Historic trends in chess AI, Effect of Eli Whitney’s cotton gin on historic trends in cotton ginning, Historic trends in flight airspeed records

Primary authors: Ronny Fernandez
Main page: How energy efficient are human-engineered flight designs relative to natural ones?

Other pages added in 2020: Energy efficiency of monarch butterfly flight, Energy efficiency of wandering albatross flight, Energy efficiency of paramotors, Energy efficiency of The Spirit of Butt’s Farm, Energy efficiency of MacCready Gossamer Albatross, Energy efficiency of Boeing 747-400, Energy efficiency of Airbus A320, Energy efficiency of North American P-51 Mustang, Energy efficiency of Vickers Vimy plane, Energy efficiency of Wright model B, Energy efficiency of Wright Flyer

Primary authors: Richard Korzekwa
Pages added in 2020:

• Time for AI to cross the human range in English draughts
• Time for AI to cross the human range in StarCraft
• Time for AI to cross the human performance range in ImageNet image classification
• Time for AI to cross the human performance range in chess
• Time for AI to cross the human performance range in Go

Primary authors: Asya Bergal
Pages added in 2020:

• 2019 recent trends in GPU price per FLOPS
• 2019 recent trends in Geekbench score per CPU price
• Trends in DRAM price per gigabyte

Primary authors: Asya Bergal, Robert Long
Main page: Interviews on plausibility of AI safety by default
Blog post: Takeaways from safety by default interviews

Primary authors: Richard Korzekwa
Main page: Preliminary survey of prescient actions

• AI Impacts key questions of interest — Primary author: Katja Grace
• Was the industrial revolution a drastic departure from historic trends? — Primary author: Katja Grace
• Surveys on fractional progress towards HLAI — Primary author: Asya Bergal
• Precedents for economic n-year doubling before 4n-year doubling — Primary author: Daniel Kokotajlo
• Resolutions of mathematical conjectures over time — Primary author: Asya Bergal

• Misalignment and misuse: whose values are manifest? — Katja Grace
• Automated intelligence is not AI — Katja Grace
• Relevant pre-AGI possibilities — Daniel Kokotajlo, Asya Bergal
• Description vs simulated prediction — Richard Korzekwa
• Atari early — Katja Grace
• Three kinds of competitiveness — Daniel Kokotajlo
• AGI in a vulnerable world — Asya Bergal
• Cortes, Pizarro, and Afonso as precedents for takeover — Daniel Kokotajlo