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--- ai_timelines:hardware_and_ai_timelines:computing_capacity_of_all_gpus_and_tpus [2023/06/05 18:04]
rickkorzekwa Changed to first person plural
+++ ai_timelines:hardware_and_ai_timelines:computing_capacity_of_all_gpus_and_tpus [2024/01/24 23:06] (current)
harlanstewart
@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
+/*
+EDITOR NOTES (publicly accessible)
+-Harlan: I plan to update this page once global market size estimates for GPUs become available for 2023
+*/
 ====== How much computing capacity exists in GPUs and TPUs in Q1 2023? ======
@@ Line 11: / Line 15: @@
 Consulting firms reported their estimates of the world-wide GPU market size for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022.((Bhutani, Ankita, and Preeti Wadhwani. 2019. “Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) Market Size By Component, Hardware, Device Type, Service, By Deployment Model, By Application, Industry Analysis Report, Regional Outlook, Growth Potential, Competitive Market Share & Forecast, 2018 - 2024.” Global Market Insights. https://web.archive.org/web/20220303120312/https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/gpu-market.
 ))((“GPU Market Size, Share, Trends | Forecast 2026.” n.d. Acumen Research and Consulting. Accessed March 31, 2023. https://www.acumenresearchandconsulting.com/gpu-market. ))((R, Rachita. 2020. “GPU Market Size, Share & Forecast by 2027 : Graphics Processing Unit.” Allied Market Research. https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/graphic-processing-unit-market. ))((Alsop, Thomas. 2021. “Graphics processing unit (GPU) market size worldwide in 2020 and 2028.” Statista. https://web.archive.org/web/20220901103010/https://www.statista.com/statistics/1166028/gpu-market-size-worldwide/.
-))(( “Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) Market Size, Share, Trends & Forecast.” 2022. Verified Market Research. https://www.verifiedmarketresearch.com/product/graphic-processing-unit-gpu-market/. ))(( Wadhwani, Preeti, and Aayush Jain. 2023. “Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) Market Size, Share Report – 2032.” Global Market Insights. https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/gpu-market. )) Unfortunately, the details of these reports are paywalled, so the methodology and scope of these estimates is not completely clear. A sample of GMI’s report on 2022 GPU market size seems to indicate that the estimate is reasonably comprehensive.((The report include revenue related to integrated GPUs, including from Apple. Because Apple does not appear to sell their integrated GPUs directly to consumers, this likely means that the report is including GPUs that come installed in Apple devices, rather than only stand-alone GPUs. If this is not the case, and the estimate only includes sales of stand-alone GPUs, then this page might significantly underestimate the total compute of all GPUs and TPUs.))
+))(( “Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) Market Size, Share, Trends & Forecast.” 2022. Verified Market Research. https://www.verifiedmarketresearch.com/product/graphic-processing-unit-gpu-market/. ))(( Wadhwani, Preeti, and Aayush Jain. 2023. “Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) Market Size, Share Report – 2032.” Global Market Insights. https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/gpu-market. )) Unfortunately, the details of these reports are paywalled, so the methodology and scope of these estimates is not completely clear. A sample of GMI’s report on 2022 GPU market size seems to indicate that the estimate is reasonably comprehensive.((The report includes revenue related to integrated GPUs, including from Apple. Because Apple does not appear to sell their integrated GPUs directly to consumers, this likely means that the report is including GPUs that come installed in Apple devices rather than only stand-alone GPUs. If this is not the case, and the estimate only includes sales of stand-alone GPUs, then this page might significantly underestimate the total compute of all GPUs and TPUs.))
   * Our best guess estimate models market size growth as a piecewise linear function, with slow growth before 2017 and fast growth after 2017.
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 ==== Estimating FLOP/s per dollar GPUs had per year ====
-Hobbhahn & Besiroglu (2022) used a dataset of GPUs to find trends in FLOP/s per dollar over time. This provides a simple way to convert the above estimates of total spending on GPUs per year into estimates of total GPU computing capacity produced per year. Hobbhahn & Besiroglu found no statistically significant difference in the trends of FP16 and FP32 precision compute, and We follow their example by focusing on FP32 precision for the computing capacity of GPUs.((Hobbhahn, Marius. 2022. “Trends in GPU price-performance.” Epoch AI. https://epochai.org/blog/trends-in-gpu-price-performance. ))
+Hobbhahn & Besiroglu (2022) used a dataset of GPUs to find trends in FLOP/s per dollar over time. This provides a simple way to convert the above estimates of total spending on GPUs per year into estimates of total GPU computing capacity produced per year. Hobbhahn & Besiroglu found no statistically significant difference in the trends of FP16 and FP32 precision compute, and we follow their example by focusing on FP32 precision for the computing capacity of GPUs.((Hobbhahn, Marius. 2022. “Trends in GPU price-performance.” Epoch AI. https://epochai.org/blog/trends-in-gpu-price-performance. ))
   * Our best guess estimate for FLOP/s per dollar over time is based on the trendline over all of the data in the dataset.

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