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--- ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai [2023/05/26 18:51]
harlanstewart
+++ ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai [2023/10/12 00:57] (current)
katjagrace [2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI]
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 ====== 2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI ======
-// Published 04 August, 2022; last updated 26 May, 2023 //
+/*
+/11/2023 Harlan:
+(You can now make comments on wiki using the syntax with the stars and slashes that you'll see below and above this comment. Readers will not be able to see this text.)
+This wiki page is going to be hyperlinked in the survey invitation for the 2023 survey invites, so please be extra careful not to break it in the next few weeks!
+*/
+// Published 04 August, 2022; last updated 26 May, 2023 //
-//This page is in progress. It includes results that are preliminary and have a higher than usual chance of inaccuracy and suboptimal formatting. It is missing many results.//
@@ Line 72: / Line 78: @@
 </HTML>
+==== Data cleaning ====
+Edits were made to the raw data before analysis in the hope of preserving its intended meaning, including but not limited to:
+  * Text such as '%' was removed from numerical answers
+  * Some answers that were logically impossible in a way that implied misunderstanding of the question were ignored (e.g. when asked for the probability of an event happening by ascending numbers of years, the numbers should not be descending)
+  * Some answers appeared designed to add to 100% in cases where that suggested a misunderstanding of the question. If a person sometimes had logically impossible answers which suggested misunderstanding the question, and sometimes had answers which were possible but also added to 100% suggesting the continuation of the same misunderstanding, we also excluded those answers.
 ===== Definitions =====
@@ Line 690: / Line 702: @@
 </HTML>
+===== Notable citations of 2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI =====
+Places where the [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai|2022 ESPAI]] has been cited:
+  - Holt, Lester. 2023. "[[https://youtu.be/qRLrE2tkr2Y|AI ‘race to recklessness’ could have dire consequences, tech experts warn in new interview]]" //NBC Nightly News//
+  - Feldman, Noah. 2023. "[[https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-04-02/regulating-ai-might-require-a-new-federal-agency|Regulating AI Will Be Essential. And Complicated.]]" //Bloomberg//
+  - Wallace-Wells, David. 2023. "[[https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/27/opinion/ai-chatgpt-chatbots.html|A.I. Is Being Built by People Who Think It Might Destroy Us]]" //The New York Times//
+  - Roser, Max. 2023. "[[https://ourworldindata.org/ai-timelines|AI timelines: What do experts in artificial intelligence expect for the future?]]" //Our World in Data//
+  - Klein, Ezra. 2023. "[[https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/21/podcasts/ezra-klein-podcast-transcript-kelsey-piper.html|Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Kelsey Piper]]" //The New York Times//
+  - Klein, Ezra. 2023. "[[https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/12/opinion/chatbots-artificial-intelligence-future-weirdness.html|This Changes Everything]]" //The New York Times//
+  - Samuel, Sigal. 2023. "[[https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23621198/artificial-intelligence-chatgpt-openai-existential-risk-china-ai-safety-technology|The case for slowing down AI"]] //Vox//
+  - Lopez, German. 2023. "[[https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/briefing/ai-chatgpt.html|Using A.I. in Everyday Life]]" //The New York Times//
+  - 2023. "[[https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2023/04/19/how-generative-models-could-go-wrong|How generative models could go wrong]]" //The Economist//
+  - Harari, Yuval, et al. 2023. "[[https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/opinion/yuval-harari-ai-chatgpt.html|You Can Have the Blue Pill or the Red Pill, and We’re Out of Blue Pills]]" //The New York Times//
+  - Hammond, Samuel. 2023. "[[https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/05/08/manhattan-project-for-ai-safety-00095779|We Need a Manhattan Project for AI Safety]]" //Politico//
+  - Nay, John. 2022. "[[https://law.stanford.edu/2022/09/25/aligning-ai-with-humans-by-leveraging-law-as-data/|Aligning AI with Humans by Leveraging Law as Data]]" //Center for Legal Informatics, Stanford University//
 ===== Contributions =====
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 <HTML>
-<p>The survey was run by Katja Grace and Ben Weinstein-Raun. Data analysis was done by Zach Stein-Perlman and Ben Weinstein-Raun. This page was written by Zach Stein-Perlman and Katja Grace.</p>
+<p>The survey was run by Katja Grace and Ben Weinstein-Raun. Data analysis was done by Zach Stein-Perlman, Ben Weinstein-Raun and John Salvatier. This page was written by Zach Stein-Perlman and Katja Grace.</p>
 </HTML>
@@ Line 966: / Line 994: @@
 <HTML>
-<p>Zach Stein-Perlman, Benjamin Weinstein-Raun, Katja Grace, “2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI.” <em>AI Impacts</em>, 3 Aug. 2022. <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">https://aiimpacts.org/2022-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/</a>.</p>
+<p>Katja Grace, Zach Stein-Perlman, Benjamin Weinstein-Raun, and John Salvatier, “2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI.” <em>AI Impacts</em>, 3 Aug. 2022. <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">https://aiimpacts.org/2022-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/</a>.</p>
 </HTML>

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