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ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:agi-11_survey [2022/09/21 07:37] (current)
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| | ====== AGI-11 survey ====== |
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| | // Published 10 November, 2018; last updated 23 April, 2020 // |
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| | <p>The AGI-11 survey was a survey of 60 participants at the AGI-11 conference. In it:</p> |
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| | <li><div class="li">Nearly half of respondents believed that AGI would appear before 2030.</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Nearly 90% of respondents believed that AGI would appear before 2100.</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">About 85% of respondents believed that AGI would be beneficial for humankind.</div></li> |
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| | ===== Details ===== |
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| | <p>James Barrat and Ben Goertzel surveyed participants at the <a href="http://agi-conference.org/2011/">AGI-11</a> conference on <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_General_Intelligence">AGI</a> timelines. The survey had two questions, administered over email after the conference. The results were fairly similar to those from the more complex <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:agi-09_survey">AGI-09</a> survey, for which Ben Goertzel was also an author.</p> |
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| | <p>Sixty people total responded to the survey, out of <a href="http://agi-conf.org/2011/2011/08/13/agi-11-a-smashing-success/">over 200</a> conference registrations. Nobody skipped either of the two questions.</p> |
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| | <p>The data in this post, and the results tables, are taken from the <a href="http://hplusmagazine.com/2011/09/16/how-long-till-agi-views-of-agi-11-conference-participants/">write up on this survey</a> in h+ magazine.</p> |
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| | ==== Question One ==== |
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| | <p>Question one was: “I believe that AGI (however I define it) will be effectively implemented in the following timeframe:”</p> |
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| | <p>The answer choices were:</p> |
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| | <ul> |
| | <li><div class="li">Before 2030</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">2030-2049</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">2050-2099</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">After 2100</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">Never</div></li> |
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| | <p>The results were:</p> |
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| | ==== Question Two ==== |
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| | <p>Question two was: “I believe that AGI (however I define it) will be a net positive event for humankind:”</p> |
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| | <p>The answer choices were:</p> |
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| | <li><div class="li">True</div></li> |
| | <li><div class="li">False</div></li> |
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| | <p>The results were:</p> |
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| | ==== Comments ==== |
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| | <p>As well as the two survey questions, there was also a form where respondents could submit comments. These are recorded in the <a href="http://hplusmagazine.com/2011/09/16/how-long-till-agi-views-of-agi-11-conference-participants/">h+ magazine</a> write up. Many of the comments expressed concern with the survey structure, suggesting that there could have been more or different options.</p> |
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| | ===== Contributions ===== |
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| | <p><em>Justis Mills researched for and wrote this post. Katja Grace provided feedback on style and content. Thanks to James Barrat for linking us to the h+ magazine write up when we reached out to him about his survey.</em></p> |
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