ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys
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ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys [2023/04/28 20:25] harlanstewart |
ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys [2024/01/09 20:12] harlanstewart |
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| ====== AI Timeline Surveys ====== | ====== AI Timeline Surveys ====== | ||
| + | /* | ||
| + | EDITOR COMMENTS: | ||
| - | // Published 10 January 2015; last updated | + | -Harlan: I think that it's a bit inaccurate to say that Gruetzemacher' |
| + | |||
| + | -Harlan: This page generally could use some work, much of the discussion after the table was written long ago. | ||
| + | |||
| + | -Harlan: Zach pointed out that we should add something about this survey as well https:// | ||
| + | */ | ||
| + | // Published 10 January 2015; last updated | ||
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| - | We know of 19 surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. If we collapse a few slightly different meanings of ‘human-level AI’, then: | + | We know of 20 surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. If we collapse a few slightly different meanings of ‘human-level AI’, then: |
| * Median estimates made before 2016 for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are all in the 2020s, median estimates made after 2016 for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are in the 2030s, except for one with a median of 2046. | * Median estimates made before 2016 for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are all in the 2020s, median estimates made after 2016 for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are in the 2030s, except for one with a median of 2046. | ||
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| === Results summary === | === Results summary === | ||
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ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/ai_timeline_surveys.txt · Last modified: 2024/01/09 20:12 by harlanstewart
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