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ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys [2023/02/15 21:42] harlanstewart |
ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys [2024/01/09 20:12] (current) harlanstewart |
====== AI Timeline Surveys ====== | ====== AI Timeline Surveys ====== |
| /* |
| EDITOR COMMENTS: |
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// Published 10 January 2015; last updated 12 February 2023 // | -Harlan: I think that it's a bit inaccurate to say that Gruetzemacher's survey had a response rate of 40%, because they only sent emails to those who said in person that they would be interested in taking the survey. I'm removing that number from the table |
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| -Harlan: This page generally could use some work, much of the discussion after the table was written long ago. |
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| -Harlan: Zach pointed out that we should add something about this survey as well https://www.generationlab.org/expertsai. ALthough it might not fit well into the table |
| */ |
| // Published 10 January 2015; last updated 9 January 2024 // |
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<p><em>This page is incomplete, under active work and may be updated soon.</em></p> | |
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| // This page is incomplete, under active work and may be updated soon. // |
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<p>We know of 18 surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. If we collapse a few slightly different meanings of ‘human-level AI’, then:</p> | |
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| We know of 20 surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. If we collapse a few slightly different meanings of ‘human-level AI’, then: |
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<HTML> | * Median estimates made before 2016 for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are all in the 2020s, median estimates made after 2016 for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are in the 2030s, except for one with a median of 2046. |
<ul> | * Median estimates for when there will be a 50% chance of human-level AI ranged between 2035 and 2074 (from twelve surveys). |
<li><div class="li">Median estimates for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are all in the 2020s (from seven surveys), except for the <span style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">2016 ESPAI</a>, which found median estimates ranging from 2013 to long after 2066, depending on question framing</span>.</div></li> | * Of three surveys in recent decades asking for predictions but not probabilities, two produced median estimates of when human-level AI will arrive in the 2050s, and one in 2085. |
<li><div class="li">Median estimates for when there will be a 50% chance of human-level AI range between 2035 and 2050 (from seven surveys), except for the <span style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">2016 ESPAI</a>, which found median estimates ranging from 2056 to at least 2106, depending on question framing.</span></div></li> | |
<li><div class="li">Of three surveys in recent decades asking for predictions but not probabilities, two produced median estimates of when human-level AI will arrive in the 2050s, and one in 2085.</div></li> | |
</ul> | |
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| Participants appear to mostly be experts in AI or related areas, but with a large contingent of others. Several groups of survey participants seem likely to over-represent people who are especially optimistic about human-level AI being achieved soon. |
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<p>Participants appear to mostly be experts in AI or related areas, but with a large contingent of others. Several groups of survey participants seem likely over-represent people who are especially optimistic about human-level AI being achieved soon.</p> | |
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<a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai" title="2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI">ESPAI 2022</a> (2022) | <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai" title="2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI">ESPAI 2022</a> (2022) |
</div></li> | </div></li> |
| <li><div class="li"> |
| <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai" title="2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI">ESPAI 2023</a> (2023) |
| </div></li> |
</ul> | </ul> |
</HTML> | </HTML> |
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=== Results summary === | === Results summary === |
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<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65">Survey</td> | <td style="width: 65pt;" width="65">Survey</td> |
<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65">#</td> | <td style="width: 65pt;" width="65">#</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt;" width="65"> 10%</td> | <td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt;" width="65"> 10% chance</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt; font-size: inherit;" width="65"> 50%</td> | <td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt; font-size: inherit;" width="65"> 50% chance</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt; font-size: inherit;" width="65"> 90%</td> | <td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt; font-size: inherit;" width="65"> 90% chance</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt; font-size: inherit;" width="65"> Other key ‘Predictions’</td> | <td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt; font-size: inherit;" width="65"> Other key ‘Predictions’</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt;" width="65">Participants</td> | <td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt;" width="65">Participants</td> |
</tr> | </tr> |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td align="right" height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">1972</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">1972</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/michie-survey/" title="Michie Survey"> Michie</a> | <a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/michie-survey/" title="Michie Survey"> Michie</a> |
</td> | </td> |
<td align="right">67</td> | <td>67</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
</tr> | </tr> |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td align="right" height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2005</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2005</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/bainbridge-survey/" title="Bainbridge survey"> Bainbridge</a> | <a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/bainbridge-survey/" title="Bainbridge survey"> Bainbridge</a> |
</td> | </td> |
<td align="right">26</td> | <td>26</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
</tr> | </tr> |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td align="right" height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2006</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2006</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/ai50-survey/" title="AI@50 Survey"> AI@50</a> | <a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/ai50-survey/" title="AI@50 Survey"> AI@50</a> |
</tr> | </tr> |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td align="right" height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2007</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2007</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/klein-agi-survey/" title="Klein AGI Survey"> Klein</a> | <a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/klein-agi-survey/" title="Klein AGI Survey"> Klein</a> |
</td> | </td> |
<td align="right">888</td> | <td>888</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
| |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td align="right" height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2009</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2009</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/agi-09-survey/" title="AGI-09 Survey"> AGI-09</a> | <a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/agi-09-survey/" title="AGI-09 Survey"> AGI-09</a> |
| |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td align="right" height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2011</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2011</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:agi-11_survey" title="AGI-11 survey"> AGI-11 </a> | <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:agi-11_survey" title="AGI-11 survey"> AGI-11 </a> |
</td> | </td> |
<td align="right">60</td> | <td>60</td> |
<td align="right" class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"></td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"></td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td>AGI-11</td> | <td>AGI-11</td> |
<td align="right" class="xl66"></td> | <td class="xl66"></td> |
<td> | <td> |
<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20221129004757/https://hplusmagazine.com/2011/09/16/how-long-till-agi-views-of-agi-11-conference-participants/">link</a> | <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20221129004757/https://hplusmagazine.com/2011/09/16/how-long-till-agi-views-of-agi-11-conference-participants/">link</a> |
| |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td align="right" height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2011</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2011</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/fhi-ai-timelines-survey/" title="FHI Winter Intelligence Survey"> FHI Winter Intelligence</a> | <a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/fhi-ai-timelines-survey/" title="FHI Winter Intelligence Survey"> FHI Winter Intelligence</a> |
</td> | </td> |
<td align="right">35</td> | <td>35</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2028</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2028</td> |
<td align="right" class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2050</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2050</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2150</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2150</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td class="xl64">AGI impacts conf; 44% related technical</td> | <td class="xl64">AGI impacts conf; 44% related technical</td> |
<td align="right" class="xl66">41%</td> | <td class="xl66">41%</td> |
<td> | <td> |
<a href="https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011-1.pdf">link</a> | <a href="https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011-1.pdf">link</a> |
</tr> | </tr> |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;" align= "right">2011-2012</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2011-2012</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/kruel-ai-survey/" title="Kruel AI Interviews"> Kruel interviews</a> | <a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/kruel-ai-survey/" title="Kruel AI Interviews"> Kruel interviews</a> |
</td> | </td> |
<td align="right">37</td> | <td >37</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2025</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2025</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2035</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2035</td> |
</tr> | </tr> |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td align="right" height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2012</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2012</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/muller-and-bostrom-ai-progress-poll/" title="Müller and Bostrom AI Progress Poll"> FHI: AGI-12</a> | <a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/muller-and-bostrom-ai-progress-poll/" title="Müller and Bostrom AI Progress Poll"> FHI: AGI-12</a> |
</td> | </td> |
<td align="right">72</td> | <td >72</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2022</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2022</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2040</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2040</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td class="xl64">AGI & AGI impacts conf; AGI, technical work</td> | <td class="xl64">AGI & AGI impacts conf; AGI, technical work</td> |
<td align="right" class="xl66">65%</td> | <td class="xl66">65%</td> |
<td> | <td> |
<a href="http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf">link</a> | <a href="http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf">link</a> |
</tr> | </tr> |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td align="right" height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2012</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2012</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/muller-and-bostrom-ai-progress-poll/" title="Müller and Bostrom AI Progress Poll"> FHI:PT-AI</a> | <a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/muller-and-bostrom-ai-progress-poll/" title="Müller and Bostrom AI Progress Poll"> FHI:PT-AI</a> |
</td> | </td> |
<td align="right">43</td> | <td>43</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2023</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2023</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2048</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2048</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td class="xl64">Philosophy & theory of AI conf; not technical AI</td> | <td class="xl64">Philosophy & theory of AI conf; not technical AI</td> |
<td align="right" class="xl66">49%</td> | <td class="xl66">49%</td> |
<td> | <td> |
<a href="http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf">link</a> | <a href="http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf">link</a> |
</tr> | </tr> |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td align = "right" height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2012-?</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2012-?</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/hanson-ai-expert-survey/" title="Hanson AI Expert Survey"> Hanson</a> | <a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/hanson-ai-expert-survey/" title="Hanson AI Expert Survey"> Hanson</a> |
</tr> | </tr> |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td align="right" height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2013</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2013</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/muller-and-bostrom-ai-progress-poll/" title="Müller and Bostrom AI Progress Poll"> FHI: TOP100</a> | <a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/muller-and-bostrom-ai-progress-poll/" title="Müller and Bostrom AI Progress Poll"> FHI: TOP100</a> |
</td> | </td> |
<td align="right">29</td> | <td >29</td> |
<td align="right" class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2022</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2022</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2040</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2040</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2075</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2075</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td>Top AI</td> | <td>Top AI</td> |
<td align="right" class="xl66">29%</td> | <td class="xl66">29%</td> |
<td> | <td> |
<a href="http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf">link</a> | <a href="http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf">link</a> |
</tr> | </tr> |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td align="right" height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2013</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2013</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/muller-and-bostrom-ai-progress-poll/" title="Müller and Bostrom AI Progress Poll"> FHI:EETN</a> | <a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/muller-and-bostrom-ai-progress-poll/" title="Müller and Bostrom AI Progress Poll"> FHI:EETN</a> |
</td> | </td> |
<td align="right">26</td> | <td >26</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2020</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2020</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2050</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2050</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td class="xl64">Greek assoc. for AI; AI</td> | <td class="xl64">Greek assoc. for AI; AI</td> |
<td align="right" class="xl66">10%</td> | <td class="xl66">10%</td> |
<td> | <td> |
<p><a href="http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf">link</a></p> | <p><a href="http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf">link</a></p> |
</tr> | </tr> |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td align="right" height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2015</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2015</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai" title="2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI"> ESPAI 2016</a> | <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai" title="2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI"> ESPAI 2016</a> |
</td> | </td> |
<td align="right">352</td> | <td >352</td> |
<td align="right" class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2025</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2025</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2061</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2061</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td>NIPS and ICML 2015</td> | <td>NIPS and ICML 2015</td> |
<td align="right" class="xl66">21%</td> | <td class="xl66">21%</td> |
<td> | <td> |
<a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">link</a> | <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">link</a> |
</tr> | </tr> |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td align="right" height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2016</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2016</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:etzioni_2016_survey" title="Etzioni 2016 survey"> Etzioni</a> | <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:etzioni_2016_survey" title="Etzioni 2016 survey"> Etzioni</a> |
</td> | </td> |
<td align="right">80</td> | <td>80</td> |
<td align="right" class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"></td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"></td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td></td> | <td></td> |
<td align="right" class="xl66">41%</td> | <td class="xl66">41%</td> |
<td> | <td> |
<a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:etzioni_2016_survey">link</a> | <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:etzioni_2016_survey">link</a> |
</tr> | </tr> |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td align="right" height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2017</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2017</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:walsh_2017_survey" title="Walsh 2017 survey"> Walsh</a> | <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:walsh_2017_survey" title="Walsh 2017 survey"> Walsh</a> |
</td> | </td> |
<td align="right">849</td> | <td >849</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">AI experts: 2035<BR>Robotics experts: 2033<BR>Non-experts: 2026</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">AI experts: 2035<BR>Robotics experts: 2033<BR>Non-experts: 2026</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">AI experts: 2061<BR>Robotics experts: 2065<BR>Non-experts: 2039</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">AI experts: 2061<BR>Robotics experts: 2065<BR>Non-experts: 2039</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td>200 AI Experts<BR>101 Robotics experts<BR>548 Non-experts</td> | <td>200 AI Experts<BR>101 Robotics experts<BR>548 Non-experts</td> |
<td align="right" class="xl66"></td> | <td class="xl66"></td> |
<td> | <td> |
<a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:walsh_2017_survey">link</a> | <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:walsh_2017_survey">link</a> |
</tr> | </tr> |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td align="right" height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2018</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2018</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.08579.pdf" title="Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey"> Gruetzemacher</a> | <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.08579.pdf" title="Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey"> Gruetzemacher</a> |
</td> | </td> |
<td align="right">164</td> | <td>164</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2046</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2046</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2074</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2074</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td>ICML, IJCAI, and HLAI 2018</td> | <td>ICML, IJCAI, and HLAI 2018</td> |
<td align="right" class="xl66">40%</td> | <td class="xl66"></td> |
<td> | <td> |
<a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">link</a> | <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">link</a> |
</tr> | </tr> |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td align="right" height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2019</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2019</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04132" title="Forecasting AI Progress: Evidence from a Survey of Machine Learning Researchers"> GovAI</a> | <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04132" title="Forecasting AI Progress: Evidence from a Survey of Machine Learning Researchers"> GovAI</a> |
</td> | </td> |
<td align="right">296</td> | <td>296</td> |
<td align="right" class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"></td> | <class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"></td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2039</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2059</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2119</td> |
<td>NIPS and ICML 2018</td> | <td></td> |
<td align="right" class="xl66"></td> | <td class="xl66">NIPS and ICML 2018</td> |
| <td>20%</td> |
<td> | <td> |
<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04132">link</a> | <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04132">link</a> |
</tr> | </tr> |
<tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> | <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
<td align="right" height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2022</td> | <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2022</td> |
<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> | <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
<a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai" title="2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI"> ESPAI 2022</a> | <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai" title="2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI"> ESPAI 2022</a> |
</td> | </td> |
<td align="right">738</td> | <td>461</td> |
<td align="right" class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"></td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2029</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2059</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2060</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2288</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td>NIPS and ICML 2021</td> | <td>NIPS and ICML 2021</td> |
<td align="right" class="xl66">17%</td> | <td class="xl66">17%</td> |
<td> | <td> |
<a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">link</a> | <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">link</a> |
</td> | </td> |
</tr> | </tr> |
| |
| <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
| <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2023</td> |
| <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
| <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai" title="2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI"> ESPAI 2023</a> |
| </td> |
| <td>1714</td> |
| <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2027</td> |
| <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2047</td> |
| <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2186</td> |
| <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
| <td>NeurIPS, ICML, ICLR, AAAI, JMLR, and IJCAI 2022</td> |
| <td class="xl66">15%</td> |
| <td> |
| <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">link</a> |
| </td> |
| </tr> |
| |
</tbody> | </tbody> |
</table> | </table> |