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--- ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys [2023/02/15 22:53]
harlanstewart
+++ ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys [2024/01/09 20:12] (current)
harlanstewart
@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 ====== AI Timeline Surveys ======
+/*
+EDITOR COMMENTS:
-// Published 10 January 2015; last updated 12 February 2023 //
+-Harlan: I think that it's a bit inaccurate to say that  Gruetzemacher's survey had a response rate of 40%, because they only sent emails to those who said in person that they would be interested in taking the survey. I'm removing that number from the table
+-Harlan: This page generally could use some work, much of the discussion after the table was written long ago.
+-Harlan: Zach pointed out that we should add something about this survey as well https://www.generationlab.org/expertsai. ALthough it might not fit well into the table
+*/
+// Published 10 January 2015; last updated 9 January 2024 //
-<HTML>
-<p><em>This page is incomplete, under active work and may be updated soon.</em></p>
-</HTML>
+// This page is incomplete, under active work and may be updated soon. //
-<HTML>
-<p>We know of 18 surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. If we collapse a few slightly different meanings of ‘human-level AI’, then:</p>
-</HTML>
+We know of 20 surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. If we collapse a few slightly different meanings of ‘human-level AI’, then:
-<HTML>
+  * Median estimates made before 2016 for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are all in the 2020s, median estimates made after 2016 for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are in the 2030s, except for  one with a median of 2046.
-<ul>
+  * Median estimates for when there will be a 50% chance of human-level AI ranged between 2035 and 2074 (from twelve surveys).
-<li><div class="li">Median estimates for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are all in the 2020s (from seven surveys), except for the <span style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">2016 ESPAI</a>, which found median estimates ranging from 2013 to long after 2066, depending on question framing</span>.</div></li>
+  * Of three surveys in recent decades asking for predictions but not probabilities, two produced median estimates of when human-level AI will arrive in the 2050s, and one in 2085.
-<li><div class="li">Median estimates for when there will be a 50% chance of human-level AI range between 2035 and 2050 (from seven surveys), except for the <span style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">2016 ESPAI</a>, which found median estimates ranging from 2056 to at least 2106, depending on question framing.</span></div></li>
-<li><div class="li">Of three surveys in recent decades asking for predictions but not probabilities, two produced median estimates of when human-level AI will arrive in the 2050s, and one in 2085.</div></li>
-</ul>
-</HTML>
+Participants appear to mostly be experts in AI or related areas, but with a large contingent of others. Several groups of survey participants seem likely to over-represent people who are especially optimistic about human-level AI being achieved soon.
-<HTML>
-<p>Participants appear to mostly be experts in AI or related areas, but with a large contingent of others. Several groups of survey participants seem likely over-represent people who are especially optimistic about human-level AI being achieved soon.</p>
-</HTML>
@@ Line 88: / Line 83: @@
 <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai" title="2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI">ESPAI 2022</a> (2022)
                 </div></li>
+<li><div class="li">
+<a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai" title="2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI">ESPAI 2023</a> (2023)
+                </div></li>
 </ul>
 </HTML>
@@ Line 98: / Line 96: @@
 === Results summary ===
@@ Line 112: / Line 108: @@
 <td style="width: 65pt;" width="65">Survey</td>
 <td style="width: 65pt;" width="65">#</td>
-<td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt;" width="65"> 10%</td>
+<td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt;" width="65"> 10% chance</td>
-<td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt; font-size: inherit;" width="65"> 50%</td>
+<td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt; font-size: inherit;" width="65"> 50% chance</td>
-<td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt; font-size: inherit;" width="65"> 90%</td>
+<td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt; font-size: inherit;" width="65"> 90% chance</td>
 <td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt; font-size: inherit;" width="65"> Other key ‘Predictions’</td>
 <td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt;" width="65">Participants</td>
@@ Line 391: / Line 387: @@
 <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td>
 <td>ICML, IJCAI, and HLAI 2018</td>
-<td class="xl66">40%</td>
+<td class="xl66"></td>
 <td>
 <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">link</a>
@@ Line 406: / Line 402: @@
 <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2059</td>
 <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2119</td>
-<td>NIPS and ICML 2018</td>
+<td></td>
-<td class="xl66"></td>
+<td class="xl66">NIPS and ICML 2018</td>
+<td>20%</td>
 <td>
 <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04132">link</a>
@@ Line 417: / Line 414: @@
 <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai" title="2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI"> ESPAI 2022</a>
 </td>
-<td>738</td>
+<td>461</td>
-<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"></td>
+<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2029</td>
-<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> 2059</td>
+<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2060</td>
-<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td>
+<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2288</td>
 <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td>
 <td>NIPS and ICML 2021</td>
@@ Line 428: / Line 425: @@
 </td>
 </tr>
+<tr style="height: 21.0pt;">
+<td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2023</td>
+<td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;">
+<a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai" title="2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI"> ESPAI 2023</a>
+</td>
+<td>1714</td>
+<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2027</td>
+<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2047</td>
+<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2186</td>
+<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td>
+<td>NeurIPS, ICML, ICLR, AAAI, JMLR, and IJCAI 2022</td>
+<td class="xl66">15%</td>
+<td>
+<a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">link</a>
+</td>
+</tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>

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