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ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys [2023/04/27 22:38] harlanstewart |
ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys [2024/01/09 20:12] (current) harlanstewart |
====== AI Timeline Surveys ====== | ====== AI Timeline Surveys ====== |
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| EDITOR COMMENTS: |
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// Published 10 January 2015; last updated 12 February 2023 // | -Harlan: I think that it's a bit inaccurate to say that Gruetzemacher's survey had a response rate of 40%, because they only sent emails to those who said in person that they would be interested in taking the survey. I'm removing that number from the table |
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| -Harlan: This page generally could use some work, much of the discussion after the table was written long ago. |
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| -Harlan: Zach pointed out that we should add something about this survey as well https://www.generationlab.org/expertsai. ALthough it might not fit well into the table |
| */ |
| // Published 10 January 2015; last updated 9 January 2024 // |
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<p><em>This page is incomplete, under active work and may be updated soon.</em></p> | |
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| // This page is incomplete, under active work and may be updated soon. // |
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<p>We know of 19 surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. If we collapse a few slightly different meanings of ‘human-level AI’, then:</p> | |
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| We know of 20 surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. If we collapse a few slightly different meanings of ‘human-level AI’, then: |
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<HTML> | * Median estimates made before 2016 for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are all in the 2020s, median estimates made after 2016 for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are in the 2030s, except for one with a median of 2046. |
<ul> | * Median estimates for when there will be a 50% chance of human-level AI ranged between 2035 and 2074 (from twelve surveys). |
<li><div class="li">Median estimates for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are all in the 2020s (from seven surveys), except for the <span style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">2016 ESPAI</a>, which found median estimates ranging from 2013 to long after 2066, depending on question framing</span>.</div></li> | * Of three surveys in recent decades asking for predictions but not probabilities, two produced median estimates of when human-level AI will arrive in the 2050s, and one in 2085. |
<li><div class="li">Median estimates for when there will be a 50% chance of human-level AI range between 2035 and 2050 (from seven surveys), except for the <span style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">2016 ESPAI</a>, which found median estimates ranging from 2056 to at least 2106, depending on question framing.</span></div></li> | |
<li><div class="li">Of three surveys in recent decades asking for predictions but not probabilities, two produced median estimates of when human-level AI will arrive in the 2050s, and one in 2085.</div></li> | |
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| Participants appear to mostly be experts in AI or related areas, but with a large contingent of others. Several groups of survey participants seem likely to over-represent people who are especially optimistic about human-level AI being achieved soon. |
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<p>Participants appear to mostly be experts in AI or related areas, but with a large contingent of others. Several groups of survey participants seem likely over-represent people who are especially optimistic about human-level AI being achieved soon.</p> | |
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<a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai" title="2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI">ESPAI 2022</a> (2022) | <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai" title="2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI">ESPAI 2022</a> (2022) |
</div></li> | </div></li> |
| <li><div class="li"> |
| <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai" title="2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI">ESPAI 2023</a> (2023) |
| </div></li> |
</ul> | </ul> |
</HTML> | </HTML> |
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=== Results summary === | === Results summary === |
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<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65">Survey</td> | <td style="width: 65pt;" width="65">Survey</td> |
<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65">#</td> | <td style="width: 65pt;" width="65">#</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt;" width="65"> 10%</td> | <td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt;" width="65"> 10% chance</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt; font-size: inherit;" width="65"> 50%</td> | <td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt; font-size: inherit;" width="65"> 50% chance</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt; font-size: inherit;" width="65"> 90%</td> | <td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt; font-size: inherit;" width="65"> 90% chance</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt; font-size: inherit;" width="65"> Other key ‘Predictions’</td> | <td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt; font-size: inherit;" width="65"> Other key ‘Predictions’</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt;" width="65">Participants</td> | <td class="xl64" style="width: 65pt;" width="65">Participants</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td>ICML, IJCAI, and HLAI 2018</td> | <td>ICML, IJCAI, and HLAI 2018</td> |
<td class="xl66">40%</td> | <td class="xl66"></td> |
<td> | <td> |
<a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">link</a> | <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">link</a> |
<a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai" title="2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI"> ESPAI 2022</a> | <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai" title="2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI"> ESPAI 2022</a> |
</td> | </td> |
<td>738</td> | <td>461</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2032</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2029</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2052</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2060</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2092</td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2288</td> |
<td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> | <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
<td>NIPS and ICML 2021</td> | <td>NIPS and ICML 2021</td> |
</td> | </td> |
</tr> | </tr> |
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| <tr style="height: 21.0pt;"> |
| <td height="21" style="height: 21.0pt;">2023</td> |
| <td class="xl65" style="font-size: inherit;"> |
| <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai" title="2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI"> ESPAI 2023</a> |
| </td> |
| <td>1714</td> |
| <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2027</td> |
| <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2047</td> |
| <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;">2186</td> |
| <td class="xl64" style="font-size: inherit;"> </td> |
| <td>NeurIPS, ICML, ICLR, AAAI, JMLR, and IJCAI 2022</td> |
| <td class="xl66">15%</td> |
| <td> |
| <a href="https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">link</a> |
| </td> |
| </tr> |
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</tbody> | </tbody> |
</table> | </table> |