ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys
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ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys [2023/12/15 01:12] harlanstewart |
ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys [2024/01/09 20:12] (current) harlanstewart |
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| EDITOR COMMENTS: | EDITOR COMMENTS: | ||
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| - | -Harlan: I think when I added 2022 ESPAI to this list I only used the HLMI fixed-probability framing because that was the most literally comparable to the other things. But we should probably add a footnote or something explaining that the question was asked different ways of others with different results. | ||
| -Harlan: I think that it's a bit inaccurate to say that Gruetzemacher' | -Harlan: I think that it's a bit inaccurate to say that Gruetzemacher' | ||
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| + | -Harlan: This page generally could use some work, much of the discussion after the table was written long ago. | ||
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| + | -Harlan: Zach pointed out that we should add something about this survey as well https:// | ||
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| - | // Published 10 January 2015; last updated | + | // Published 10 January 2015; last updated |
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| - | We know of 19 surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. If we collapse a few slightly different meanings of ‘human-level AI’, then: | + | We know of 20 surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. If we collapse a few slightly different meanings of ‘human-level AI’, then: |
| * Median estimates made before 2016 for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are all in the 2020s, median estimates made after 2016 for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are in the 2030s, except for one with a median of 2046. | * Median estimates made before 2016 for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are all in the 2020s, median estimates made after 2016 for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are in the 2030s, except for one with a median of 2046. | ||
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| === Results summary === | === Results summary === | ||
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ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/ai_timeline_surveys.1702602737.txt.gz · Last modified: 2023/12/15 01:12 by harlanstewart
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