This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.
Both sides previous revision Previous revision Next revision | Previous revision | ||
ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys [2024/01/03 21:15] harlanstewart |
ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys [2024/01/09 20:12] (current) harlanstewart |
||
---|---|---|---|
Line 2: | Line 2: | ||
/* | /* | ||
EDITOR COMMENTS: | EDITOR COMMENTS: | ||
- | |||
- | -Harlan: I think when I added 2022 ESPAI to this list I only used the HLMI fixed-probability framing because that was the most literally comparable to the other things. But we should probably add a footnote or something explaining that the question was asked different ways of others with different results. | ||
-Harlan: I think that it's a bit inaccurate to say that Gruetzemacher' | -Harlan: I think that it's a bit inaccurate to say that Gruetzemacher' | ||
+ | |||
+ | -Harlan: This page generally could use some work, much of the discussion after the table was written long ago. | ||
+ | |||
+ | -Harlan: Zach pointed out that we should add something about this survey as well https:// | ||
*/ | */ | ||
- | // Published 10 January 2015; last updated | + | // Published 10 January 2015; last updated |
Line 13: | Line 15: | ||
- | We know of 19 surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. If we collapse a few slightly different meanings of ‘human-level AI’, then: | + | We know of 20 surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. If we collapse a few slightly different meanings of ‘human-level AI’, then: |
* Median estimates made before 2016 for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are all in the 2020s, median estimates made after 2016 for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are in the 2030s, except for one with a median of 2046. | * Median estimates made before 2016 for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are all in the 2020s, median estimates made after 2016 for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are in the 2030s, except for one with a median of 2046. | ||
Line 81: | Line 83: | ||
<a href=" | <a href=" | ||
</ | </ | ||
+ | < | ||
+ | <a href=" | ||
+ | </ | ||
</ul> | </ul> | ||
</ | </ | ||
Line 409: | Line 414: | ||
<a href=" | <a href=" | ||
</td> | </td> | ||
- | <td>180</ | + | <td>461</ |
- | <td class=" | + | <td class=" |
- | <td class=" | + | <td class=" |
- | <td class=" | + | <td class=" |
<td class=" | <td class=" | ||
< | < | ||
Line 420: | Line 425: | ||
</td> | </td> | ||
</tr> | </tr> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <tr style=" | ||
+ | <td height=" | ||
+ | <td class=" | ||
+ | <a href=" | ||
+ | </td> | ||
+ | < | ||
+ | <td class=" | ||
+ | <td class=" | ||
+ | <td class=" | ||
+ | <td class=" | ||
+ | < | ||
+ | <td class=" | ||
+ | <td> | ||
+ | <a href=" | ||
+ | </td> | ||
+ | </tr> | ||
+ | |||
</ | </ | ||
</ | </ |