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ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:automation_of_music_production [2022/09/21 07:37] (current)
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| | ====== Automation of music production ====== |
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| | // Published 12 September, 2017; last updated 28 September, 2017 // |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Most machine learning researchers expect machines will be able to create top quality music by 2036.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | ===== Details ===== |
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| | ==== Evidence from survey data ==== |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>In the <a href="/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai">2016 ESPAI</a>, participants were asked two relevant questions:</p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p style="padding-left: 30px;">[<strong>Top forty</strong>] Compose a song that is good enough to reach the US Top 40. The system should output the complete song as an audio file.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p style="padding-left: 30px;">[<strong>Taylor</strong>] Produce a song that is indistinguishable from a new song by a particular artist, e.g. a song that experienced listeners can’t distinguish from a new song by Taylor Swift.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | |
| | === Summary results === |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>Answers were as follows, suggesting these milestones are likely to be reached in ten years, and quite likely to be reached in twenty years.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr"> |
| | <colgroup> |
| | <col width="113"/> |
| | <col width="100"/> |
| | <col width="100"/> |
| | <col width="100"/> |
| | </colgroup> |
| | <tbody> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Essay"}'></td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R477C[75]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":25}'><strong>10 years</strong></td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R477C[75]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":50}'><strong>20 years</strong></td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R477C[75]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":90}'><strong>50 years</strong></td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Top forty"}'><strong>Top forty</strong></td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R477C[78]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":27.5}'><strong>27.5%</strong></td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R477C[78]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":50}'><strong>50%</strong></td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R477C[78]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":90}'><strong>90%</strong></td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Taylor"}'><strong>Taylor</strong></td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R477C[81]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":60}'><strong>60%</strong></td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R477C[81]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":75}'><strong>75%</strong></td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R477C[81]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":99}'><strong>99%</strong></td> |
| | </tr> |
| | </tbody> |
| | </table> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | |
| | <HTML> |
| | <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr"> |
| | <colgroup> |
| | <col width="113"/> |
| | <col width="100"/> |
| | <col width="100"/> |
| | <col width="100"/> |
| | </colgroup> |
| | <tbody> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Essay"}'></td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R477C[75]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2}'><strong>10%</strong></td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R477C[75]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":7}'><strong>50%</strong></td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R477C[75]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":15}'><strong>90%</strong></td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Top forty"}'><strong>Top forty</strong></td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R477C[78]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5}'><strong>5 years</strong></td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R477C[78]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":10}'><strong>10 years</strong></td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R477C[78]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":20}'><strong>20 years</strong></td> |
| | </tr> |
| | <tr> |
| | <td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Taylor"}'><strong>Taylor</strong></td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R477C[81]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5}'><strong>5 years</strong></td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R477C[81]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":10}'><strong>10 years</strong></td> |
| | <td data-sheets-formula="=R477C[81]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":20}'><strong>20 years</strong></td> |
| | </tr> |
| | </tbody> |
| | </table> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | === Distributions of answers to Taylor question === |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <p>The three figures below show how respondents were spread between different answers over time, for the respondents who answered the ‘fixed years’ framing.</p> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <figure aria-describedby="caption-attachment-908" class="wp-caption alignnone" id="attachment_908" style="width: 600px"> |
| | <a href="http://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/chart-22.png"><img alt="" class="size-full wp-image-908" height="371" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/chart-22.png" srcset="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/chart-22.png 600w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/chart-22-300x186.png 300w" width="600"/></a> |
| | <figcaption class="wp-caption-text" id="caption-attachment-908"> |
| | 10 |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <figure aria-describedby="caption-attachment-907" class="wp-caption alignnone" id="attachment_907" style="width: 600px"> |
| | <a href="http://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/chart-23.png"><img alt="" class="size-full wp-image-907" height="371" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/chart-23.png" srcset="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/chart-23.png 600w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/chart-23-300x186.png 300w" width="600"/></a> |
| | <figcaption class="wp-caption-text" id="caption-attachment-907"> |
| | 20 |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
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| | <HTML> |
| | <figure aria-describedby="caption-attachment-906" class="wp-caption alignnone" id="attachment_906" style="width: 600px"> |
| | <a href="http://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/chart-24.png"><img alt="" class="size-full wp-image-906" height="371" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px" src="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/chart-24.png" srcset="https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/chart-24.png 600w, https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/chart-24-300x186.png 300w" width="600"/></a> |
| | <figcaption class="wp-caption-text" id="caption-attachment-906"> |
| | 50 |
| | </figcaption> |
| | </figure> |
| | </HTML> |
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