| We know of 19 surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. Participants appear to mostly be experts in AI or related areas, but with a large contingent of others. Most of the surveys asked about AI timelines by asking participants for the year in which they expect a given probability of human-level AI (HLAI). Collapsing a few slightly different definitions of HLAI, the results of surveys that used this fixed-probability methodology are shown in figure 1. Note that asking about timelines in terms of fixed-probabilities tends to elicit shorter timeline predictions than asking in terms of fixed-years. | We know of 20 surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. Participants appear to mostly be experts in AI or related areas, but with a large contingent of others. Most of the surveys asked about AI timelines by asking participants for the year in which they expect a given probability of human-level AI (HLAI). Collapsing a few slightly different definitions of HLAI, the results of surveys that used this fixed-probability methodology are shown in figure 1. Note that asking about timelines in terms of fixed-probabilities tends to elicit shorter timeline predictions than asking in terms of fixed-years. |
| [{{:ai_timelines:year_when_x_chance_of_human-level_ai_hlai_median_answers_from_surveys_over_the_years.png|Figure 1: Median predicted year of given probabilities of HLAI from [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:agi-09_survey|AGI-09 (2009)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:fhi_winter_intelligence_survey|FHI Winter Intelligence (2011)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:kruel_ai_interviews|Kruel interviews (2011-2012)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:muller_and_bostrom_ai_progress_poll|FHI: AGI-12 (2012)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:muller_and_bostrom_ai_progress_poll|FHI:PT-AI (2012)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:muller_and_bostrom_ai_progress_poll|FHI: TOP100 (2013)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:muller_and_bostrom_ai_progress_poll|FHI:EETN (2013)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai|ESPAI 2016]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:walsh_2017_survey|Walsh (2017)]], [[https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1901/1901.08579.pdf|Gruetzemacher (2018)]], [[https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04132|GovAI (2019)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai|ESPAI 2022]]}}] | [{{:ai_timelines:year_when_x_chance_of_human-level_ai_hlai_median_answers_from_surveys_over_the_years.png|Figure 1: Median predicted year of given probabilities of HLAI from [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:agi-09_survey|AGI-09 (2009)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:fhi_winter_intelligence_survey|FHI Winter Intelligence (2011)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:kruel_ai_interviews|Kruel interviews (2011-2012)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:muller_and_bostrom_ai_progress_poll|FHI: AGI-12 (2012)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:muller_and_bostrom_ai_progress_poll|FHI:PT-AI (2012)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:muller_and_bostrom_ai_progress_poll|FHI: TOP100 (2013)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:muller_and_bostrom_ai_progress_poll|FHI:EETN (2013)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai|ESPAI 2016]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:walsh_2017_survey|Walsh (2017)]], [[https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1901/1901.08579.pdf|Gruetzemacher (2018)]], [[https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04132|GovAI (2019)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai|ESPAI 2022]]}}] |
