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ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines [2023/05/02 17:56]
harlanstewart 		ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines [2023/05/08 16:23]
harlanstewart
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 ====== Predictions of Human-Level AI Timelines ====== ====== Predictions of Human-Level AI Timelines ======
  
-// Published 05 June, 2015; last updated 2 May, 2023 //+// Published 05 June, 2015; last updated 8 May, 2023 //
  
-Predictions of when [[clarifying_concepts:human-level_ai|human-level AI]] will be achieved exist in the form of [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys|surveys]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_prediction_markets|prediction markets]], and public statements (e.g. in articles, books or interviews). Some statements backed by analysis are discussed [[ai_timelines:list_of_analyses_of_time_to_human-level_ai|here]]. +In the most recent surveys, experts gave median predictions in the 2050s for the arrival of human-level AI. Prediction markets/aggregators currently give median predictions in the 2030s. Individual analyses give a wide range of predictions.
- +
-In the most recent two surveys we know of, experts gave median predictions between 2052 and 2059. The two prediction markets/aggregators that we know of currently give median predictions between 2032 and 2038.+
  
 ===== Details ===== ===== Details =====
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 ==== Surveys ==== ==== Surveys ====
 +
 +//(See main page: [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys|AI timeline surveys]])//
  
 We know of 19 surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. Participants appear to mostly be experts in AI or related areas, but with a large contingent of others. Most of the surveys asked about AI timelines by asking participants for the year in which they expect a given probability of human-level AI (HLAI). Collapsing a few slightly different definitions of HLAI, the results of surveys that used this fixed-probability methodology are shown in figure 1. Note that asking about timelines in terms of fixed-probabilities tends to elicit shorter timeline predictions than asking in terms of fixed-years. We know of 19 surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. Participants appear to mostly be experts in AI or related areas, but with a large contingent of others. Most of the surveys asked about AI timelines by asking participants for the year in which they expect a given probability of human-level AI (HLAI). Collapsing a few slightly different definitions of HLAI, the results of surveys that used this fixed-probability methodology are shown in figure 1. Note that asking about timelines in terms of fixed-probabilities tends to elicit shorter timeline predictions than asking in terms of fixed-years.
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 <iframe src="https://manifold.markets/embed/HarlanStewart/in-what-year-will-humanlevel-ai-fir" title="In what year will human-level AI first exist?" frameborder="0" width="600" height="300"></iframe> <iframe src="https://manifold.markets/embed/HarlanStewart/in-what-year-will-humanlevel-ai-fir" title="In what year will human-level AI first exist?" frameborder="0" width="600" height="300"></iframe>
 </html> </html>
 +
 +==== Analyses ====
 +
 +//(See main page: [[ai_timelines:list_of_analyses_of_time_to_human-level_ai|List of Analyses of Time to Human-Level AI]])//
  
 ==== 2015 database of public predictions about AI ==== ==== 2015 database of public predictions about AI ====
ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines.txt · Last modified: 2024/01/29 21:31 by harlanstewart

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