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--- ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines [2023/05/02 21:46]
harlanstewart
+++ ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines [2023/05/08 16:23]
harlanstewart
@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 ====== Predictions of Human-Level AI Timelines ======
-// Published 05 June, 2015; last updated 2 May, 2023 //
+// Published 05 June, 2015; last updated 8 May, 2023 //
-Predictions of when [[clarifying_concepts:human-level_ai|human-level AI]] will be achieved exist in the form of [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys|surveys]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_prediction_markets|prediction markets]], and public statements (e.g. in articles, books or interviews). Some statements backed by analysis are discussed [[ai_timelines:list_of_analyses_of_time_to_human-level_ai|here]].
+In the most recent surveys, experts gave median predictions in the 2050s for the arrival of human-level AI. Prediction markets/aggregators currently give median predictions in the 2030s. Individual analyses give a wide range of predictions.
-In the most recent two surveys we know of, experts gave median predictions between 2052 and 2059. The two prediction markets/aggregators that we know of currently give median predictions between 2032 and 2038.
 ===== Details =====
@@ Line 35: / Line 33: @@
 <iframe src="https://manifold.markets/embed/HarlanStewart/in-what-year-will-humanlevel-ai-fir" title="In what year will human-level AI first exist?" frameborder="0" width="600" height="300"></iframe>
 </html>
+==== Analyses ====
+//(See main page: [[ai_timelines:list_of_analyses_of_time_to_human-level_ai|List of Analyses of Time to Human-Level AI]])//
 ==== 2015 database of public predictions about AI ====

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