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ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines [2023/05/02 21:46]
harlanstewart |
ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines [2024/01/29 21:31] (current)
harlanstewart |
| ====== Predictions of Human-Level AI Timelines ====== | ====== Predictions of Human-Level AI Timelines ====== |
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| // Published 05 June, 2015; last updated 2 May, 2023 // | // Published 05 June, 2015; last updated 8 May, 2023 // |
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| Predictions of when [[clarifying_concepts:human-level_ai|human-level AI]] will be achieved exist in the form of [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys|surveys]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_prediction_markets|prediction markets]], and public statements (e.g. in articles, books or interviews). Some statements backed by analysis are discussed [[ai_timelines:list_of_analyses_of_time_to_human-level_ai|here]]. | In the most recent surveys, experts gave median predictions in the 2050s for the arrival of human-level AI. Prediction markets/aggregators currently give median predictions in the 2030s. Individual analyses give a wide range of predictions. |
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| In the most recent two surveys we know of, experts gave median predictions between 2052 and 2059. The two prediction markets/aggregators that we know of currently give median predictions between 2032 and 2038. | |
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| ===== Details ===== | ===== Details ===== |
| //(See main page: [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys|AI timeline surveys]])// | //(See main page: [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys|AI timeline surveys]])// |
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| We know of 19 surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. Participants appear to mostly be experts in AI or related areas, but with a large contingent of others. Most of the surveys asked about AI timelines by asking participants for the year in which they expect a given probability of human-level AI (HLAI). Collapsing a few slightly different definitions of HLAI, the results of surveys that used this fixed-probability methodology are shown in figure 1. Note that asking about timelines in terms of fixed-probabilities tends to elicit shorter timeline predictions than asking in terms of fixed-years. | We know of 20 surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. Participants appear to mostly be experts in AI or related areas, but with a large contingent of others. Most of the surveys asked about AI timelines by asking participants for the year in which they expect a given probability of human-level AI (HLAI). Collapsing a few slightly different definitions of HLAI, the results of surveys that used this fixed-probability methodology are shown in figure 1. Note that asking about timelines in terms of fixed-probabilities tends to elicit shorter timeline predictions than asking in terms of fixed-years. |
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| [{{:ai_timelines:year_when_x_chance_of_human-level_ai_hlai_median_answers_from_surveys_over_the_years.png|Figure 1: Median predicted year of given probabilities of HLAI from [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:agi-09_survey|AGI-09 (2009)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:fhi_winter_intelligence_survey|FHI Winter Intelligence (2011)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:kruel_ai_interviews|Kruel interviews (2011-2012)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:muller_and_bostrom_ai_progress_poll|FHI: AGI-12 (2012)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:muller_and_bostrom_ai_progress_poll|FHI:PT-AI (2012)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:muller_and_bostrom_ai_progress_poll|FHI: TOP100 (2013)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:muller_and_bostrom_ai_progress_poll|FHI:EETN (2013)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai|ESPAI 2016]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:walsh_2017_survey|Walsh (2017)]], [[https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1901/1901.08579.pdf|Gruetzemacher (2018)]], [[https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04132|GovAI (2019)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai|ESPAI 2022]]}}] | [{{:ai_timelines:year_when_x_chance_of_human-level_ai_hlai_median_answers_from_surveys_over_the_years.png|Figure 1: Median predicted year of given probabilities of HLAI from [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:agi-09_survey|AGI-09 (2009)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:fhi_winter_intelligence_survey|FHI Winter Intelligence (2011)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:kruel_ai_interviews|Kruel interviews (2011-2012)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:muller_and_bostrom_ai_progress_poll|FHI: AGI-12 (2012)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:muller_and_bostrom_ai_progress_poll|FHI:PT-AI (2012)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:muller_and_bostrom_ai_progress_poll|FHI: TOP100 (2013)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:muller_and_bostrom_ai_progress_poll|FHI:EETN (2013)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai|ESPAI 2016]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:walsh_2017_survey|Walsh (2017)]], [[https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1901/1901.08579.pdf|Gruetzemacher (2018)]], [[https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04132|GovAI (2019)]], [[ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai|ESPAI 2022]]}}] |
| <iframe src="https://manifold.markets/embed/HarlanStewart/in-what-year-will-humanlevel-ai-fir" title="In what year will human-level AI first exist?" frameborder="0" width="600" height="300"></iframe> | <iframe src="https://manifold.markets/embed/HarlanStewart/in-what-year-will-humanlevel-ai-fir" title="In what year will human-level AI first exist?" frameborder="0" width="600" height="300"></iframe> |
| </html> | </html> |
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| | ==== Analyses ==== |
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| | //(See main page: [[ai_timelines:list_of_analyses_of_time_to_human-level_ai|List of Analyses of Time to Human-Level AI]])// |
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| ==== 2015 database of public predictions about AI ==== | ==== 2015 database of public predictions about AI ==== |
