arguments_for_ai_risk:quantitative_estimates_of_ai_risk
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Table of Contents
Quantitative Estimates of AI Risk
This page is in an early draft. It is very incomplete and may contain errors.
Some people who are working in AI Safety have published quantitative estimates for how likely they think it is that AI will pose an existential threat.
Background
Many thinkers believe advanced artificial intelligence (AI) poses a large threat to humanity's long term survival or flourishing. Here we review their quantitative estimates.
For quotes from specific prominent people working on AI, see this page.
This page draws heavily from this database made by Michael Aird at Convergence Analysis.
Quantitative Estimates
Individuals
| Estimator | Date | What is Estimated? | p(Doom) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Ord | 2020 | Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI | 0.1 | The Precipice |
| Joe Carlsmith | 2021 | Existential catastrophe by 2070 from advanced, planning, strategic AI | 0.05 | Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk? |
| Katja Grace | 2023 | Bad future because AI agents with bad goals control cognitive labor | 0.19 | Will AI end everything? A guide to guessing |
| Nate Soares | 2021 | Existential catastrophe by 2070 from advanced, planning, strategic AI | 0.77 | Comments on Carlsmith's "Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?" |
| Eliezer Yudkowsky | 2022 | AGI "killing literally everyone" | ~1 | AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities |
Surveys
arguments_for_ai_risk/quantitative_estimates_of_ai_risk.1686782242.txt.gz · Last modified: 2023/06/14 22:37 by jeffreyheninger
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