arguments_for_ai_risk:quantitative_estimates_of_ai_risk
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Table of Contents
Quantitative Estimates of AI Risk
This page is in an early draft. It is very incomplete and may contain errors.
Some people who are working in AI Safety have published quantitative estimates for how likely they think it is that AI will pose an existential threat.
Background
Many thinkers believe advanced artificial intelligence (AI) poses a large threat to humanity's long term survival or flourishing. Here we review their quantitative estimates.
For quotes from specific prominent people working on AI, see this page.
This page draws heavily from this database made by Michael Aird at Convergence Analysis.
Quantitative Estimates
Individuals
| Estimator | Date | What is Estimated? | p(Doom) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Ord | 2020 | Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI | 0.1 | The Precipice |
| Joe Carlsmith | 2021 | Existential catastrophe by 2070 from advanced, planning, strategic AI | 0.05 | Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk? |
| Katja Grace | 2023 | Bad future because AI agents with bad goals control cognitive labor | 0.19 | Will AI end everything? A guide to guessing |
| Nate Soares | 2021 | Existential catastrophe by 2070 from advanced, planning, strategic AI | 0.77 | Comments on Carlsmith's "Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?" |
| Eliezer Yudkowsky | 2022 | AGI "killing literally everyone" | ~1 | AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities |
| Rohin Shah | 2019 | Things with AI do not go well, without additional intervention by us doing safety research | 0.1 | Conversation with Rohin Shah |
| Paul Christiano | 2019 | How much worse the future is in expectation by virtue of our failure to align AI | 0.1 | Conversation with Paul Christiano |
| Adam Gleave | 2019 | Chance that AI does cause a significant risk of harm, without intervention from AI safety efforts | 0.6 - 0.7 | Conversation with Adam Gleave |
| Adam Gleave | 2019 | Chance that AI does cause a significant risk of harm, with median AI safety efforts | 0.3 - 0.4 | Conversation with Adam Gleave |
| Adam Gleave | 2019 | Chance that AI does cause a significant risk of harm, with best case AI safety efforts | 0.1 - 0.2 | Conversation with Adam Gleave |
| Rohin Shah | 2020 | Probability of AI-induced existential risk | 0.05 | AI Alignment Podcast: An Overview of Technical AI Alignment in 2018 and 2019 with Buck Shlegeris and Rohin Shah |
| Buck Shlegeris | 2020 | Probability of AI-induced existential risk | 0.5 | AI Alignment Podcast: An Overview of Technical AI Alignment in 2018 and 2019 with Buck Shlegeris and Rohin Shah |
| James Fodor | 2020 | Unaligned AI usurps and establishes permanent dominance over humanity | 0.0005 | Critical Review of 'The Precipice': A Reassessment of the Risks of AI and Pandemics |
| Buck Shlegeris | 2023 | Likelihood of AI coup | 0.25 | The current alignment plan, and how we might improve it |
| Stuart Armstrong | 2014 | Probability of humanity's non-survival in the context of artificial superintelligence | 0.33 - 0.5 | The future is going to be wonderful if we don't get whacked |
| Stuart Armstrong | 2020 | Whether AGI could threaten humanity's survival or permanently curtail its potential | 0.05 - 0.3 | Is AI an existential threat? We don't know, and we should work on it |
Surveys
arguments_for_ai_risk/quantitative_estimates_of_ai_risk.1686802749.txt.gz · Last modified: 2023/06/15 04:19 by jeffreyheninger
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