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AGI-11 survey

Published 10 November, 2018; last updated 23 April, 2020

The AGI-11 survey was a survey of 60 participants at the AGI-11 conference. In it:

  • Nearly half of respondents believed that AGI would appear before 2030.
  • Nearly 90% of respondents believed that AGI would appear before 2100.
  • About 85% of respondents believed that AGI would be beneficial for humankind.


James Barrat and Ben Goertzel surveyed participants at the AGI-11 conference on AGI timelines. The survey had two questions, administered over email after the conference. The results were fairly similar to those from the more complex AGI-09 survey, for which Ben Goertzel was also an author.

Sixty people total responded to the survey, out of over 200 conference registrations. Nobody skipped either of the two questions.

The data in this post, and the results tables, are taken from the write up on this survey in h+ magazine.

Question One

Question one was: “I believe that AGI (however I define it) will be effectively implemented in the following timeframe:”

The answer choices were:

  • Before 2030
  • 2030-2049
  • 2050-2099
  • After 2100
  • Never

The results were:

Question Two

Question two was: “I believe that AGI (however I define it) will be a net positive event for humankind:”

The answer choices were:

  • True
  • False

The results were:


As well as the two survey questions, there was also a form where respondents could submit comments. These are recorded in the h+ magazine write up. Many of the comments expressed concern with the survey structure, suggesting that there could have been more or different options.


Justis Mills researched for and wrote this post. Katja Grace provided feedback on style and content. Thanks to James Barrat for linking us to the h+ magazine write up when we reached out to him about his survey.

ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/agi-11_survey.txt · Last modified: 2022/09/21 07:37 (external edit)