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speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:the_range_of_human_intelligence [2023/04/12 23:14]
harlanstewart |
speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:the_range_of_human_intelligence [2023/09/11 21:38] (current)
jeffreyheninger The schemata weren't transferred over from the original. |
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| 5. **Diagnosing diabetic retinopathy** //(See [[speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_performance_range_in_diabetic_retinopathy|Time for AI to cross the human performance range in diabetic retinopathy]]))//: Diabetic retinopathy, a complication of diabetes in which high blood sugar levels damage the back of the eye, is diagnosed by examining images of the back of the eye. The first algorithm for detecting diabetic retinopathy, developed in 1996, could not detect it as well as ophthalmologists. In 2016, Google released results for algorithms that could detect diabetic retinopathy about as well as ophthalmologists. | 5. **Diagnosing diabetic retinopathy** //(See [[speed_of_ai_transition:range_of_human_performance:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_performance_range_in_diabetic_retinopathy|Time for AI to cross the human performance range in diabetic retinopathy]]))//: Diabetic retinopathy, a complication of diabetes in which high blood sugar levels damage the back of the eye, is diagnosed by examining images of the back of the eye. The first algorithm for detecting diabetic retinopathy, developed in 1996, could not detect it as well as ophthalmologists. In 2016, Google released results for algorithms that could detect diabetic retinopathy about as well as ophthalmologists. |
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| | 6. **Image classification** //(See [[featured_articles:time_for_ai_to_cross_the_human_performance_range_in_imagenet_image_classification|Time for AI to cross the human performance range in ImageNet image classification]])//: The first image classifiers were developed in 1998. ImageNet is a large collection of images organized into a hierarchy of noun categories, released in 2009. Our beginner level benchmark for ImageNet classification was first surpassed in 2012, by AlexNet. In 2015, an image classifier surpassed our high human benchmark, suggesting that state-of-the-art AI could classify images about as well as expert humans. |
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| <p>4. <strong>Physical manipulation:</strong> we have not investigated this much, but our impression is that robots are somewhere in the the fumbling and slow part of the human spectrum on <a href="http://youtu.be/oD9DE0HjMM4">some</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBY4t8XxH7E">tasks</a>, and that nobody expects them to reach the ‘normal human abilities’ part any time soon (<a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/hanson-ai-expert-survey/" title="Hanson AI Expert Survey">Aaron Dollar estimates</a> robotic grasping manipulation in general is less than one percent of the way to human level from where it was 20 years ago).</p> | <p>7. <strong>Physical manipulation:</strong> we have not investigated this much, but our impression is that robots are somewhere in the the fumbling and slow part of the human spectrum on <a href="http://youtu.be/oD9DE0HjMM4">some</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBY4t8XxH7E">tasks</a>, and that nobody expects them to reach the ‘normal human abilities’ part any time soon (<a href="http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/hanson-ai-expert-survey/" title="Hanson AI Expert Survey">Aaron Dollar estimates</a> robotic grasping manipulation in general is less than one percent of the way to human level from where it was 20 years ago).</p> |
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| <p>5. <strong>Jeopardy</strong>: AI appears to have taken two or three years to move from lower ‘champion’ level to surpassing world champion level (see <a href="https://www.aaai.org/ojs/index.php/aimagazine/article/view/2303/2165">figure 9</a>; Watson beat Ken Jennings in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watson_%28computer%29">2011</a>). We don’t know how far ‘champion’ level is from the level of a beginner, but would be surprised if it were less than four times the distance traversed here, given the situation in other games, suggesting a minimum of a decade for crossing the human spectrum.</p> | <p>8. <strong>Jeopardy</strong>: AI appears to have taken two or three years to move from lower ‘champion’ level to surpassing world champion level (see <a href="https://www.aaai.org/ojs/index.php/aimagazine/article/view/2303/2165">figure 9</a>; Watson beat Ken Jennings in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watson_%28computer%29">2011</a>). We don’t know how far ‘champion’ level is from the level of a beginner, but would be surprised if it were less than four times the distance traversed here, given the situation in other games, suggesting a minimum of a decade for crossing the human spectrum.</p> |
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