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====== AI Timeline Prediction Markets ======

As of this page's last update on January 29 2024, prediction markets and aggregators that we are aware of predict years between 2031 and 2038 for the arrival of human-level AI.

===== Details =====

==== How useful are prediction markets and aggregators for AI timelines? ====

Prediction markets allow participants to bet on the outcome of an event. Prediction markets, and prediction aggregators such as Metaculus, incentivize participants to make good predictions. When the prices of binary options in prediction markets are treated as probabilities, these probabilities sometimes closely match the real frequency of the predicted outcome. However, one limitation of prediction markets is that they cannot incentivize correct predictions where the predicted outcome prevents a payout. Because many believe that human-level AI might lead to human extinction, prediction markets may not work as well for AI timelines as for other questions.

==== Metaculus ====

Rather than a market, [[https://www.metaculus.com/home/|Metaculus]] is a reputation-based prediction aggregation engine that uses a scoring system to incentivize accurate predictions and to track participants' performance over time. Forecasters' predictions are aggregated into a "community prediction" that is calculated using a model that weights each users' predictions differently.

Below is a summary of Metaculus predictions for [[https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/|"When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?"]].


<html>
<iframe src="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/5121/" height="320" width="550"></iframe>
</html>

==== Manifold Markets ====

[[https://manifold.markets/|Manifold Markets]] is a prediction market that uses a virtual currency called Mana. Users can buy Mana using real currency and earn Mana by participating on the platform. Mana cannot be withdrawn from the platform, but can be charitably donated to nonprofits of the user's choice.

We know of two user-created markets on Manifold about the year in which human-level AI will arrive. Unfortunately, these markets have relatively few bettors at the time of this writing.

<html>
<iframe src="https://manifold.markets/embed/HarlanStewart/in-what-year-will-humanlevel-ai-fir" title="In what year will human-level AI first exist?" frameborder="0" width="600" height="300"></iframe>
</html> 

<html>
<iframe src="https://manifold.markets/embed/Apeiri/what-year-will-mark-the-first-true" title="What year will mark the first true AGI?" frameborder="0" width="600" height="300"></iframe>
</html>
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