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--- ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_prediction_markets [2023/05/01 20:47]
harlanstewart
+++ ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_prediction_markets [2024/01/29 22:33] (current)
harlanstewart
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 ====== AI Timeline Prediction Markets ======
+As of this page's last update on January 29 2024, prediction markets and aggregators that we are aware of predict years between 2031 and 2038 for the arrival of human-level AI.
 ===== Details =====
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 ==== Metaculus ====
-Rather than a market, Metaculus is a reputation-based prediction aggregation engine that uses a scoring system to incentivize accurate predictions and to track participants' performance over time. Forecasters' predictions are aggregated into a "community prediction" that is calculated using a model that weights each users' predictions differently.
+Rather than a market, [[https://www.metaculus.com/home/|Metaculus]] is a reputation-based prediction aggregation engine that uses a scoring system to incentivize accurate predictions and to track participants' performance over time. Forecasters' predictions are aggregated into a "community prediction" that is calculated using a model that weights each users' predictions differently.
 Below is a summary of Metaculus predictions for [[https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/|"When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?"]].
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 ==== Manifold Markets ====
-Manifold Markets is a prediction market that uses a virtual currency called Mana. Users can buy Mana using real currency and earn Mana by participating on the platform. Mana cannot be withdrawn from the platform, but can be charitably donated to nonprofits of the user's choice.
+[[https://manifold.markets/|Manifold Markets]] is a prediction market that uses a virtual currency called Mana. Users can buy Mana using real currency and earn Mana by participating on the platform. Mana cannot be withdrawn from the platform, but can be charitably donated to nonprofits of the user's choice.
-We know of two user-created markets on Manifold about the year in which human-level AI will arrive. Unfortunately, these markets have relatively few (13 & 14) bettors at the time of this writing.
+We know of two user-created markets on Manifold about the year in which human-level AI will arrive. Unfortunately, these markets have relatively few bettors at the time of this writing.
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