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ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_prediction_markets [2023/05/01 20:53] harlanstewart |
ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_prediction_markets [2024/01/29 22:33] (current) harlanstewart |
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====== AI Timeline Prediction Markets ====== | ====== AI Timeline Prediction Markets ====== | ||
- | Prediction markets and aggregators incentivize forecasters to make good predictions. The predictions made in a prediction market or aggregator can be aggregated into a single prediction. Markets and aggregators often work well for making good predictions but also have limitations. | + | As of this page's last update on January 29 2024, prediction markets |
===== Details ===== | ===== Details ===== | ||
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==== Metaculus ==== | ==== Metaculus ==== | ||
- | Rather than a market, Metaculus is a reputation-based prediction aggregation engine that uses a scoring system to incentivize accurate predictions and to track participants' | + | Rather than a market, |
Below is a summary of Metaculus predictions for [[https:// | Below is a summary of Metaculus predictions for [[https:// | ||
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==== Manifold Markets ==== | ==== Manifold Markets ==== | ||
- | Manifold Markets is a prediction market that uses a virtual currency called Mana. Users can buy Mana using real currency and earn Mana by participating on the platform. Mana cannot be withdrawn from the platform, but can be charitably donated to nonprofits of the user's choice. | + | [[https:// |
- | We know of two user-created markets on Manifold about the year in which human-level AI will arrive. Unfortunately, | + | We know of two user-created markets on Manifold about the year in which human-level AI will arrive. Unfortunately, |
< | < |